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Def Mon Profile picture
@DefMon3
Sep 1 • 7 tweets • 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
My current take on what's going on in Robotyne.
Russian forces are defending the trench system south of the town and are counter attacking towards the town. This is most likely the reason they keep claiming Ukraine have not liberated the town. Image
Ukrainian forces seem to work a lot with small dismounted infantry groups a the moment, trying to expand the salient south and east.
A small UA recon team was spotted at the town limits of Verbove a few days ago. I think it's unlikely the managed to consolidate position
Until I see something proving the opposite, I will assume RuAF are holding their defensive line successfully west of Verbove.
The arrival of RU operational reserves (76th div among others) may have halted/slowed down UA advances for a while and we might see a period where they focus more on attrition again.
I do not feel the frontline is ready for a breakthrough attempt after the recent arrival of thousands of RU paratroopers in the Tokmak area.
Keep in mind, there are more reserves than 76th and 7th division in the area. I have seen indicators of more units relocated to the Zaporizhzhia direction.
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More from @DefMon3

Def Mon Profile picture
Aug 29
Fireworks in Pskov. This is the home of the 76th GAAD
Read 7 tweets
Def Mon Profile picture
Aug 28
An overview of units currently involved in fighting in the Robotyne direction.

Unit locations are not exact, nor do they represent the location of the entire unit. Image
I think it's fair to say he general consensus has been the UA advance during this offensive have been slow. But most analysts also agree there is a big unknown factor and that is the attrition ratio of the two forces fighting.
Over the last few months, RuAF have gradually allocated reserves for the defense of the Robotyne axis. A few weeks ago (a month?), they moved 7th Guards Mountain Air Assault Division from Kherson oblast towards Robotyne .
Read 9 tweets
Def Mon Profile picture
Aug 26
A brief clarification regarding the defensive lines. @KofmanMichael addressed this in a recent war on the rocks podcast.

On a daily basis I see questions like:
"Where are the defensive lines"
"Which is the first line"

I'll try to address this here. Image
The blue dashed line represent the most forward observed UA positions while the red represent RU the same for RU.
Orange is trench systems observed via satellite imagery.
Looking at the Robotyne axis, the layered defense looks like this.

The first part of the defenses is the combat zone, almost every tree line here is fortified. It's heavily mined and it consists of mostly smaller trenches and fox holes sometimes just big. Image
Read 10 tweets
Def Mon Profile picture
Aug 23
🙅‍♂️ How do you explain to your boss that a drone was flying over your "super high tech air defense system", filming it as it was hit by a missile it's supposed to be able to shoot down?
Sir, we successfully intercepted the missile with our launcher. We are still assessing damage caused by the debris.
Inb4 vatniks appear and try to prove Ukrainian air defense is shit by posting soviet era systems being hit by lancets. Systems also used by Russia btw.
Read 7 tweets
Def Mon Profile picture
Aug 21
Russian forces will suffer as they get pushed closer to the Surovikin line.

The same things which makes you benefit from a defensive line will also make you suffer if you are on the wrong side of it. Image
Enemy, defender etc. does not refer to Ukraine or Russia specifically in this thread.

The purpose of a defensive line is to slow down the enemy, make him avoid the area or funnel him so he becomes an easier target and hopefully stop him.
To be able to supply your own troops operating past the defensive lines, you need to leave gaps.
As you fall back behind your own defensive lines you would try to mine those gaps.
Read 7 tweets
Def Mon Profile picture
Aug 21
🧵F16s are cool and much needed, but...

30% of all combat deaths are preventable with proper medical kit and training.

For the price of one F16 we could equip hundreds of thousands of UA solders with proper medical training and IFAKs

Leaders of European countries pay attention
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Ukraine does not have helicopter medevac like the US.

90% of deaths happen before they get to a hospital, so the most important treatment happens in the trenches right away. This is why every soldier needs an IFAK and proper training. Thousands of lives can be saved.
A good IFAK cost around 100 USD. Here is a good fundraiser to support if you want to safe lives.
Read 8 tweets

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