Thread by @Mylovanov

Zelensky Fires Defense Minister Amid Ongoing War & Corruption Scandals

Zelensky’s ousted his defense minister, Oleksii Reznikov, after 19 months as a wartime minister. Zelensky calls for “new approaches”. Is it a sign that Zelensky is frustrated with the state of the war? No 1/

Zelensky has nominated Rustem Umerov, a former people's deputy and currently the head of the state property fund, to fill in the position. Zelensky is confident that parliament will back Umerov up. 2/

Umerov is a Crimean Tatar, is well respected and is a leader of the Crimean Tatar community, and has excellent connections, credibility, and trust in the Middle East 3/

Reznikov has been the defense minister since November 2021 and has previously served in roles like Vice Prime Minister. He has a long tenure in politics and is very well respected 4/

Reznikov's removal follows a series of corruption scandals involving the Ministry of Defense. Zelensky also kicked out senior officials earlier this year over a procurement scandal 5/

Reznikov himself is considered to be clean from corruption but this removal might indicate his political accountability for continuing corruption scandals and the loss of trust by the civilian society in his ability to improve transparency and implement procurement reform 6/

https://twitter.com/mylovanov/status/1697219302003216882

What are the corruption scandals are about? They are not about weapons or ammunition. There have been two: in the winter, there was an accusation about inflated food prices in procurement contracts and conditions on the contracts that restrict entry and competition 7/

https://twitter.com/mylovanov/status/1617266983669534721

There have been investigations by multiple law enforcement agencies and the accusations so far have not led to prosecutions, any formal or confirmed evidence of wrong doing, or additional more in depth media or civil society investigations 8/

But the way the minister handled the fall out from the scandal in the winter has not been considered satisfactory, possibly unjustly, by the civil society 9/

Then, in February, a number of second tier officials were fired.

Now, there is another scandal. A similar accusation of inflated prices, this time for clothing.

No water tight evidence of wrongdoing, just an accusation. The minister denied that the prices were inflated 10/

But the civil society has grown suspicious over the minister’s ability to build relationships with them and to credibly convince the society that there is no wrong doing. So the pressure continued. And the minister is now fired. It is unclear to me if the prices were inflated.11/

But it is likely true at least on some positions. The issue in my view is the lukewarm reaction by the minister, as perceived by the civil society, rather than accusations themselves. 12/

Now, the language of the president about “new approaches” and the person who is expected to replace him suggests to me to “new approaches” 13/

First, there is frustration in the society with the speed at which miltech innovation takes place and gets to the industrial level of production. This frustration is with the state side of the things, not the private businesses, entrepreneurs, and military units 14/

There is tons of innovation and adoption at the horizontal level. But often there is still a conservative mindset at the state defense agencies and production entities. So recently we have seen multiple new appointments and replacements in these areas: 15/

The minister of strategic industries, the head of the Ukroboronprom - Ukraine defense consortium, and now the minister of defense. My point - it is a trend. 16/

Now, the candidate for the appointment and the fact that minister of defense will be appointed to serve as an ambassador to the UK suggests that the incumbent will continue to work with the Western allies on the support for Ukraine 17/

While the govt also want to strengthen and put more effort in building collations with Turkey and the Middle East. 18/

Nonetheless, the timing is interesting. This move comes at a time when one of Ukraine's most powerful oligarchs and a Zelensky supporter, Ihor Kolomoisky, was arrested on fraud charges. 19/

https://twitter.com/mylovanov/status/1698055746632446049

Zelensky has emphasized that rooting out corruption is key to Ukraine's ambitions of joining NATO and the EU. As of 2021, Ukraine was the second most corrupt country in Europe. 20/

This ranking of courtroom, I should caution, is a perception measure. It is a survey and it sorts of perpetuates itself. The local experts are survey in different countries, they rank their country on some attributes. So in the environment with a very critical 21/

And demanding expert and civil socieity, the ranking will show some downward bias. There is also intertidal because the ranking influences the perception of those surveyed 22/

However, the corruption has been an issue for Ukraine and it was driven predominantly, in my view, by the oligarchs. 23/

The Americans have set up an anti corruption architecture in Ukraine that goes after the agents of corruption - the public officials - but ignores the principal source - the oligarchs 24/

Now, the major oligarch is arrested and it is a sign of a systemic change in Ukraine.

Zelensky's promise to tackle corruption was a significant factor in his unexpected rise to power in 2019. He was a comedian with zero political experience at the time. 25X