Thread by @MattooShashank

It's official: President Xi of China will skip the G20 Summit in Delhi

That's a terrible decision

Here's why🧵

After weeks of speculation, China's Foreign Ministry confirmed that President Xi Jinping will skip the G20 Leaders' summit in New Delhi

Instead, China's Premier Li Qiang (No. 2 in the Chinese govt) will attend the meeting

Let's dive into why that's a really bad decision

1⃣. Hurts China's balancing strategy

Since the Ukraine War began in 2022,🇨🇳 has tried to walk a tightrope

It has expressed its sympathy for Russia's war

It has provided diplomatic & economic support as the West has turned on RUS

BUT, it still wants normal ties with the West

That's because China needs Europe, which has been particular critical of Russia

The EU & 🇨🇳 do $2.5 billion in trade every day which makes this a vital economic relationship

China wants investments from European businesses

It also has an investment agreement pending w. the EU

As China's rivalry w. the US heats up, it has tried to use divisions within Europe

An example was the invite to France's President Macron to visit 🇨🇳

During the visit, Macron stated that Europe should not be a "camp follower" of the US

This earned him much criticism in Europe

So a divided Europe suits China just fine as it reduces the strength of US alliances

But this explains why China actually wants a normal, balanced relationship with Europe

Ukraine, though, has become a problem

Europe already viewed 🇨🇳 with increasing suspicion over the years

The EU termed China a "systemic rival" in 2019

CHN's support for Russia over Ukraine has worsened distrust towards Beijing in Europe

🇨🇳 has tried to keep Europe reasonably happy & attended a Ukraine peace summit in Saudi Arabia

This was significant since Russia wasn't invited

That's why skipping the summit is such a bad idea for Xi

So far, China has tried to do PR damage control to prevent being seen as too close to RUS

But now, the only two leaders missing at the G20 Summit will be China's Xi and Russia's Putin

And that's a very bad look for China

This very clearly puts China in the same bucket as Russia which is bad for its brand

It's also likely to worsen suspicion of China among European nations

It undercuts China's efforts with Europe so far & its "neutral" policy

Also undermines its "anti-imperialist" reputation

"China..will lose an opportunity to slow down the speed at which it is being isolated..it will lose the opportunity to revive its sagging..economy and it will..lose the opportunity for Xi..to advocate his personal initiatives of the Global Security Initiative," writes J Ranade

2⃣. India Policy

President Xi just attended the BRICS Summit in South Africa

So, skipping the G20 Summit will absolutely be seen as an attempt to undermine India

This seems to be part of a trend

China has skipped G20 meetings in Kashmir & has objected to the use of....

..."Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam" by India in its G20 Presidency

I've also reported on a story where China attempted to derail a Youth20 summit in Ladakh

Xi skipping the G20 Summit will simply confirm that China is not a friend of India

This comes after there seemed to be some...

...positive movement on the border and after Xi & Modi met in South Africa in August to stabilise the bilateral relationship

So earning more ill-will from India & the West seems to be the only thing Xi will earn from skipping the G20 Summit

That's not very good diplomacy

3⃣. Global South

The G20 still remains a major global forum for resolving major developing country priorities like debt relief and climate change

For example, the G20 created the Common Framework to reduce the debt burden on poorer countries after COVID-19

China has been...

...an important obstacle to providing faster debt relief since it is a major lender

India has placed great focus on debt relief for developing nations during its G20 Presidency

Xi skipping the summit could send the wrong message about how seriously China takes these concerns

Thanks for reading this!

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