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Emil Kastehelmi

@emilkastehelmi

Aug 30

Ukraine has breached the first Russian main defensive line, as known as the Surovikin line, in the direction of Verbove.

The village is integrated to the Russian defenses, and it's not clear if Ukraine tries to push inside the village, or are they just widening the flanks. 1/6

Ukrainians were geolocated to the outskirts of Verbove, at 47.44189, 35.95220.

That's well behind the anti-tank obstacles and first trenches. It's not yet clear how extensively the line has actually been breached, and if this is just reconnaissance operations. 2/6

https://twitter.com/emilkastehelmi/status/1695879651158052910

You can read more about the fortifications of this area from my thread here.

I'm rather convinced the Ukrainian attack won't stop here, the defences are breachable. It seems they are going for the Ocheretuvate direction. 3/6

https://twitter.com/emilkastehelmi/status/1695879651158052910

Read 7 tweets

Emil Kastehelmi

@emilkastehelmi

Aug 27

The Ukrainian offensive in the Robotyne sector has progressed, and the first Russian main defence line has been reached.

In this thread we’ll take a closer look at the main defensive line and what might happen next.

This thread includes high resolution satellite imagery. 🧵 1/

Ukrainians have been trying to advance in the Robotyne area since June. After over two and a half months of fighting, Ukraine has liberated most of Robotyne and continued south, bypassing Novoprokokivka.

In this map, you can see the Southern front on 1.6. and now, 27.8.

2/

The first significant fortified obstacle is located just outside Robotyne. The Russians have prepared formidable defences, which include covered firing positions and bunkers. From here, the Russians can defend against attacks from both north and east.

Zoom in for details. 3/

Read 18 tweets

Emil Kastehelmi

@emilkastehelmi

Jul 27

A new phase in Ukraine's counteroffensive seems to be underway in the south and east, while Russia is attacking in the north.

In this thread I will take a look at the key events & directions, and explain what the current situation means in the big picture. 1/

Ukrainians are counterattacking in the same directions as before. The most activity is observed near Robotyne and Staromaiorske. A strong push is also happening in the Bakhmut area. At the same time Russia is attacking in multiple directions on the Luhansk-Kharkiv front. 2/

Ukraine has had some success in the south. The AFU is advancing east of Robotyne and in the northern parts of Staromaiorske. According to Russians, AFU has also entered Urozhaine.

While this is good news, we’re still talking about rather limited gains in the big picture. 3/

Read 15 tweets

Emil Kastehelmi

@emilkastehelmi

Jul 17

In the Russian narrative the Kerch bridge strike in Crimea is called terrorism, as civilians died in the explosion.

In reality, the bridge is an absolutely legitimate and important military target, which the Ukrainians must attack in order to weaken the Russian logistics. 1/

Russian logistics rely heavily on trains, and the rail connection to southern front is very dependant on the Kerch bridge. The railway from Donetsk to Melitopol isn't as safe, as it's partly very close to the frontline. 2/

In the latest attack, the road section of the bridge sustained the damage. It's not the railway, but it still presents logistical challenges.

It also forces Russia to concentrate even more resources for defending and repairing the bridge. 3/

Read 8 tweets

Emil Kastehelmi

@emilkastehelmi

Jul 8

Ukraine continues its attack in the areas south of Bakhmut.

On the heights next to Klischiivka, there is a fortified position which seemed to hold back the Ukrainian offensive for days. This obstacle is now likely defeated, and Ukraine should be soon in the village itself. 1/4

Satellite images show that fighting in the area has been heavy, and reports of intense artillery fire are true. Some treelines have practically ceased to exist.

This is not unusual in this war - both sides often try to take advantage of the little natural cover there is. 2/4

In the big picture, a lot is happening in the Bakhmut area.

In addition to Klischiivka, AFU has made gains towards Berkhivka. They're also pushing in the immediate vicinity of western Bakhmut while simultaneously clearing the eastern side of Donets-Donbas canal. 3/4

Read 4 tweets

Emil Kastehelmi

@emilkastehelmi

Jul 1

Recent developments suggest that something interesting is happening near Bakhmut.

During the last month, Ukraine has continued to slowly push Russian troops out of multiple areas. I wouldn't call this a second battle of Bakhmut yet, but Ukraine is definitely on the offensive. 1/

This week, Ukraine finally cleared the last Russian positions from western side of the Donets-Donbas canal.

This operation has been ongoing since May, and it’s now complete. On top of that, the 3rd Assault Brigade has already been observed to make gains on the eastern side. 2/

The next likely direction near the canal could be Kurdiymivka and Ozarianivka, where a couple of crossings could be exploited. Liberating these villages and continuing north would help the offensive at Klischiivka, advancing west enables further objectives. 3/

Read 10 tweets

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