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I've talked about "Lanchester Square Law Collapse" in previous 🧵's.
That is the collapse of the ability to replace effective troops with more such troops.
We now have evidence of it's happening at scale over time to the Russian ground forces
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That is the collapse of the ability to replace effective troops with more such troops.
We now have evidence of it's happening at scale over time to the Russian ground forces
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https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1626320243848093699
Let's start with this recent @wartranslated post:
"The officers who had officer ranks on February 24, 22 in platoons and companies basically finished Volnovakha, so it was mostly sergeants who were leading in Mariupol...
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"The officers who had officer ranks on February 24, 22 in platoons and companies basically finished Volnovakha, so it was mostly sergeants who were leading in Mariupol...
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https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1697025007635820840
...In Mariupol, the sergeants ran out; in the summer, most often the most experienced fighter was the squad lead.
When in Mariupol the heavily battered infantry began to be "diluted" with mobilised, the "diluted" groups on the battlefield became unproductive - due to the...
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When in Mariupol the heavily battered infantry began to be "diluted" with mobilised, the "diluted" groups on the battlefield became unproductive - due to the...
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...high percentage of "mobilised" in the group, more or less experienced fighters spent all the time and energy to prevent panic / not allow these mobilised ones to wander around."
Russia committed its instructor cadre to Ukraine in April of 2022. What happened to DPR troops
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Russia committed its instructor cadre to Ukraine in April of 2022. What happened to DPR troops
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...has also happened to the vast majority of mobilized Russians.
I think the sole exception to this reality is the Russian VDV. Which has reportedly been using Belarus Army training infrastructure.
This means things.
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I think the sole exception to this reality is the Russian VDV. Which has reportedly been using Belarus Army training infrastructure.
This means things.
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The @james_rands account has a 🧵that summarizes what has been going on with Russian troops strengths inside Ukraine nicely.
Here:
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Here:
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https://twitter.com/james_rands/status/1697981979130474576
And here:
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James Dunnigan's Strategypage -dot- com military affairs website has a similar view of Russian Army numbers inside of Ukraine.
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strategypage.com/htmw/htmoral/a…
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strategypage.com/htmw/htmoral/a…
We are now seeing the same meltdown of Russian artillery firepower as we have seen with personnel.
Look at the daily artillery losses RuAF is suffering during Ukraine's counter-offensive.
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Look at the daily artillery losses RuAF is suffering during Ukraine's counter-offensive.
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https://twitter.com/ArmedMaidan/status/1698024839728988257
We are seeing huge battlefield effects in Southern Ukraine from these trends.
Ukraine is firing two artillery fire missions for every Russian fire mission for the first time in this war.🔥🔥🔥
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Ukraine is firing two artillery fire missions for every Russian fire mission for the first time in this war.🔥🔥🔥
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https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1698465419999244608
And it isn't just a matter of more Ukrainian fire missions.
It's that the firepower of those missions has been effectively tripled on a per shell basis by the provision of US/Turkish cluster munitions.
Cluster munitions are highly effective weapons.
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It's that the firepower of those missions has been effectively tripled on a per shell basis by the provision of US/Turkish cluster munitions.
Cluster munitions are highly effective weapons.
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https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1698407508426031187
Russia has created deep WW2 scale minefields with trenchworks to stop Ukraine from moving their HIMARS into GMLRS range of the M-14 highway supplying RuAF.
This is why 60% of Russian defensive efforts was in the covering area and 1st "Surovikin Line"
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This is why 60% of Russian defensive efforts was in the covering area and 1st "Surovikin Line"
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https://twitter.com/astraiaintel/status/1698711253194064201
Ukraine has simply paid the blood price of sending sappers at night to clear minefields and has chewed through the 1st "Surovikin Line" with significant available reserves.
Unengaged Ukrainian reserves with brigades of Western equipment.😉
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Unengaged Ukrainian reserves with brigades of Western equipment.😉
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https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1697675279181676726
The desperate situation Russia finds itself in is seeing the 76th VDV Air Assault Division (at 1/3 strength) thrown into an area that doesn't have the ground logistics to support it.
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https://twitter.com/astraiaintel/status/1698625739036221461
And the cherry on top is with the Russian destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam.
There is now a huge area of the former reservoir which is going to freeze solid when winter arrives to add a tremendous undefended gap in Russian lines.
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There is now a huge area of the former reservoir which is going to freeze solid when winter arrives to add a tremendous undefended gap in Russian lines.
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https://twitter.com/secretsqrl123/status/1698703459879358573
The obstacles and fortifications downstream of the Nova Kakhovka dam were swept away without replacement because of the defense priority elsewhere, like the 1st Surovikin line.
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https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1587756317686513672
At some point very soon, Ukrainian mobile forces will be loose behind the Russian lines in Kherson, Zaporizhzhia or both.
Simply because Ukraine outnumbers Russia inside Ukraine and it's troops are both better trained and equipped.
17/17 End
Simply because Ukraine outnumbers Russia inside Ukraine and it's troops are both better trained and equipped.
17/17 End
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