An interesting thread. A few thoughts. This is (informed) conjecture, but I suspect that 9M723 is capable of maneuvering much more aggressively for shorter range trajectories. Ballistic-skip trajectories come to mind for example.
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Second, the ability of 9M723 to maneuver and follow certain trajectories will be constrained by its structural dynamic pressure and thermal limits. Third, it has shown itself to reliably end up within the engagement envelopes of PAC-3 CRI and 9M83 in terminal phase.
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Fourth, it’s worth considering how these different trajectories impact its ability to deploy 9B899 penetration aids and thus overall survivability. I think it’s potentially notable that reports of recovered 9B899s seem to have dramatically dropped off compared to last year.
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So regarding S-200's apparent land attack capability. S-200 employs semi-active radar guidance so there is at least an onboard guidance computer that an IMU could theoretically be integrated with. https://t.co/jFpB3xBu14
I've yet to find a written source that explicitly indicates that S-200 has a surface-to-surface capability or that the 5V28 has an INS. This source references an automatic ascent maneuver and self-destruct if target reflection is lost and not reacquired. missilery.info/missile/c200
As Chung-Tzu notes, S-75, S-125, M-11 Shtorm, S-300P, S-400 were all intentionally designed with a S2S capability . It's very plausible S-200 has this as a built-in capability as well, I just haven't found references yet.
A few thoughts based on this piece from @epravda on the leadership shakeup at Ukroboronprom, 🇺🇦's state-owned defense conglomerate. @CrimsonInquiry has done an excellent 🧵 summarizing most of the key points.
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Particularly noteworthy is the reported increase in shell production since @AKamyshin became Minister of Strategic Industries. The fact he was able to effect a >1,100% increase in quantity of shells produced within a few weeks is genuinely astounding.
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Although not a perfect comparison, it took 🇺🇸 12 months, from 1941-42, to increase the mass of shells produced by a similar factor (h/t @SpaceAngeles). This suggests that the limiting factor was likely bureaucracy impairing efficient resource allocation and utilization.
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Time for another Russian standoff munition production update 🧵. These are the latest public production estimates from HUR, courtesy of RBC Ukraine. Russia is now reportedly producing ~60 cruise missiles and 7 ballistic missiles (5 surface-launched, 2 air-launched) per month.
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Compared to prior estimates, this represents an overall 20% growth in CM production compared to JAN 2023, rising from ~50 to ~60 units monthly. Kh-101 and Kalibr production both increased by 5 units each.
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Ballistic missile production appears to have remained constant since NOV 2022 with 5 9M723s (Iskander-M) and 2 Kinzhals monthly. This is consistent with Budanov's statement in DEC 2022 that Russian efforts to scale 9M723 production were a "disaster."
I've been asked to write a brief 🧵 on why this thread is wrong, so here we go. First, the comparison to 5GA is a non-sequiter. They perform entirely different functions to standoff munitions, so the comparison is irrelevant.
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Second, there are more inexpensive means to defeat loitering munitions and one-way attack (OWA) UAVs than AAMs or even most SAMs. There are AAGs for example not to mention that MANPADS aren't actually that expensive.
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Third, a cheap long-ranged OWA-UAV or LM comes with tradeoffs such as velocity, warhead mass, or guidance navigation and control (GNC) performance. Cheap GNC often is not hardened against EW, which opens up cost-effective methods of non-kinetic defeat.
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Third, if the F-16 is unsustainable and unsurvivable, then spare a thought for the MiG-29s and Su-27s. Both the -29 and -27 are genuinely unsustainable in the medium-term due to lack of spares and repair/refurb capacity. It is imperative they be replaced.
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Despite this, Ukrainian fixed-wing has mostly managed to survive for 14+ months flying mainly DCA missions. Of course there will be F-16 losses, perhaps dozens, and we will have to accept that. This is a conventional war.
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