Thread by @HeTows

@aryehazan Alright, I'll try to answer. Sorry in advance if it ends up being long. Perhaps it's more of a Substack topic, but I'll try anyway. So, as I said, the idea that the reform passes and half of the doctors leave for ideological reasons is laughable. It's not what I had in mind. /1

@aryehazan Here's how it could happen. The right will probably be in power for most of the next few decades, just as it was for most of the past 30 years. Haredi demography also makes the right less and less dependent on centrist moderating forces. What's the significance for the reform? /2

@aryehazan The significance (if the reform passes, more or less in its entirety) is that the right will be able to rule more or less unconstrained by "leftist elites". This is the reform's declared purpose: a cleaner majoritarian democracy. (Side remark: I don't buy this. I think that /3

@aryehazan if the coalition succeeds, then within years they'll also try to push through an electoral reform. I think their mindset about ultimate demographic victory is a bit similar to Marxist historical materialism: the proletariat is bound to win... but we'll help it a bit anyway.) /4

@aryehazan OK, back to the main issue. I'll first explain why I think this process will be ruinous for Israel. Then I'll try to explain why I don't think that elite replacement on scale will be possible. Heads up: I learned a lot from @tamritz about this, and I warmly recommend his blog. /5

@aryehazan @TamRitz First, the ruin. The only tribe on the right with a relatively clear vision of Israel are the religious Zionists. But they are also the smallest group: much less numerous than "second Israel", and also less numerous than the Haredim. The Haredim don't have a clear vision for /6

@aryehazan @TamRitz Israel, and Haredi ideology isn't designed for having one. I'll get back to this. "Second Israel" doesn't have a clear vision either; it's program is mostly negative, anti-elitist. They're now fellow travellers of the Religious Zionist pioneers, but whatever you're thinking up /7

@aryehazan @TamRitz will look very different in practice even under complete right-wing dominance, because Religious Zionists are just a small minority of the right (and shrinking, for what it's worth, due to Haredi growth). Let me give you a couple of examples. You might want more conservative /8

@aryehazan @TamRitz judges, people like Noam Sohlberg. Perhaps the first Levin-appointed judge will be someone like Sohlberg, but down the line the court won't be made up of Sohlbergs. There will be a lot of push by Likud to appoint "a Bibist judge" (this is the expression I've seen lately on /9

@aryehazan @TamRitz Likud Twitter). The if the rigt has its way, the Supreme Court won't just have more conservative judges, it will have judges to the liking of Dudi Amsalem and Galit Distal. Perhaps Tali Gottlieb will become a Supreme Court judge. Perhaps family members of sitting MKs. /10

@aryehazan @TamRitz The point is that *you* want conservative judges, because you have a vision for Israel (a conservative ones), but you won't get conservative judges; instead you'll see corruption and nepotism run amok and the SC as a place where Likud politicians fix jobs for their relatives. /11

@aryehazan @TamRitz This is because the bulk of the right doesn't share your ideology. I think RZ's ideology is unimplementable, but more importantly, there's very little support for it. The very thin right-wing elite is totally disconnected from the mainstream right. The mainstream right, once /12

@aryehazan @TamRitz unshackled from the judiocracy, won't lead Israel "conservatively", but more like petty MENA kleptocrats. This is the instance of a general rule, and the way many Likud ministers lead their ministries (Miri Regev is another example) is a good indication of what to expect. /13

@aryehazan @TamRitz So, back to "secular flight". There's no reason for it to happen just because a reform with which they disagree passes. If it happens, it will happen because there will be no one to rotect a bloc from itself, a bloc dominated by third-world-style kleptocrats and opportunistic /14

@aryehazan @TamRitz hiper-sectorial Haredim, from mismanaging the country and its economy. Not only the Supreme Court will become a joke, but also the Central Bank. And later on the Shin Bet... and so on and so on.

The seculars elite won't leave the country overnight. They'll first become /15

@aryehazan @TamRitz demoralized and will enlist in the army at a depressed rate, or avoid some units - not out of explicit ideological opposition, just a general sense of demoralization. The right will eagerly look to "replace" them. The so-called "friend brings friend" method will do its magic /16

@aryehazan @TamRitz in 8200 and other elite units - but this time it will be Ben Gvir's friends, with Ben Gvir's caliber. (The emphasis is not on extremism, but a drop in aptitude.) After a few years, the overall effect will be felt in the army. This won't cause the neighboring Arab countries to /17

@aryehazan @TamRitz suddenly invade Israel, but there will be increased casualties from Hamas, Hezbollah; a never-ending, slow-motion Intifada in the West Bank; and then a complete breakdown once under hard-right pressure Israel dismantles the PA.

I imagine all this enfold over 10-20 years. /18

@aryehazan @TamRitz At the same time, Israel will of course experience a severe economic crisis. The shekel will slowly deteriorate and then enter free fall. On the right, there will be a lot of shouting ("the left and the Democrats are shorting the shekel!!"), and they'll be partially right, but/19

@aryehazan @TamRitz the result will be the same. Around the 2040, the political effect of Haredi demography (about which the right-wing coalitions won't do practically anything, because it would require cooperation with the much-despised left) will be increasingly felt. This is due to the nature /20

@aryehazan @TamRitz of exponential growth: for the next ten years, the annual expected seat growth of UTJ is zero, but once UTJ gets to 15 seats, it can expect an extra seat every few years. People will take notice, and the consequences of exponential Haredi growth will dawn on everyone. At that /21

@aryehazan @TamRitz point a lot of people will rush to the exit, not just the seculars but also some of the well-to-do in "Second Israel", and on the religious right, a lot of educated Western immigrants with options abroad.

So the first half of the answer to your question is: no, the reform /22

@aryehazan @TamRitz by itself won't cause mass emigration. Rather, the reform (in its ambitious version) will allow stupid and corrupt people in Israel to have their way, and since stupid and corrupt eople are overrepresented in the right-wing bloc, this increases the probability of ruin. /23

@aryehazan @TamRitz OK, second half of the question: why no elite replacement on scale? As I said, the Religious Zionists could, in principle, replace the secular elite. But there aren't enough of them, and unlike the Haredim, they aren't growing exponentially (share of first-graders in the RZ /24

@aryehazan @TamRitz school system grew maybe from 19 to 21% over 20 years, if memory serves well - hardly breakthaking). I know brilliant and wise Likud voters, but statistically, it's the weakest party in terms of human capital - @tamritz has lately published a several surveys showing this. /25

@aryehazan @TamRitz This leaves you with the Haredim. As you point out, there is indeed plenty of human capital in the Haredi sector, but it's misguided to think that they will save Israel in the case of a horrible crisis. Ultra-Orthodoxy is an extremely succesful group evolutionary strategy for /26

@aryehazan @TamRitz ensuring Jewish continuity. It's the most reliable strategy, and I'd say the only really reliable one, in the diaspora. However, the flip side is that this strategy doesn't require Israel. If Israel collapses, it would means the destruction of the secular Hebrew culture. It /27

@aryehazan @TamRitz would also constitute the end of Religious Zionism. However, at the group level it wouldn't even be a challenge for Ultra-orthodoxy, which is an exilic philosophy. The most likely Haredi response to a severe crisis in Israel will be not participation in the struggle to save /28

@aryehazan @TamRitz the country, but a mass emigration of Haredim in order to ensure their group evolutionary strategy in a safer place. I'm not saying this with bitterness, it's cold realism on my part. Given their ideology and strategy, it makes perfect sense.

Haredim will never enlist in the /29

@aryehazan @TamRitz army in any significant numbers (I primarily mean Ashkenazi Haredim btw; this is the relevant group, also for the problem of exponential group). Most "Haredim" who enlist today are in fact Hardalim, Haredi dropouts, drifting youth on the fringes, etc. This will always be so. /30

@aryehazan @TamRitz I'll cut short this snaking response. The right consists of three groups: 1) the religious Zionists, who are capable and willing to replace the old elite, but too small in numbers; 2) "Second Israel", who aren't capable of replacing the old elite *on scale*, 3) Haredim, who /31

@aryehazan @TamRitz might become sizeable enough to replace the elite, but won't be interested in doing so because nothing about the Haredi world view implies that they should. It's more likely that they will also leave en masse to a place that is more hospitable to Ultra-Orthodoxy. /32-end

@aryehazan a lot of rejiggling in order to ensure that only one side can win.

@aryehazan @rogtron @TamRitz into a theocracy, at least not overnight. But it can easily turn into a corrupt, shitty little Middle Eastern country. A corrupt, shitty little Middle Eastern Jewish state won't last long in the Middle East. Look at this coalition, look at the quality of the people leading it.

@aryehazan @rogtron @TamRitz Basically, what I'm trying to communicate is that you (and a lot of RZ intellectuals) see the right through the lens of your own cognitive elite. But you're highly atypical on the right. You're actually the most atypical group in it. Your foot soldiers won't be any like you.