Share this page!

Enter Twitter Thread URL to Unroll

Needs to be the full URL like: https://twitter.com/threadreaderapp/status/1644127596119195649

How to get URL link on Twitter App

  1. On the Twitter thread, click on or icon on the bottom
  2. Click again on or Share Via icon
  3. Click on Copy Link to Tweet
  4. Paste it above and click "Unroll Thread"!
  5. More info at Twitter Help
Christoph Trebesch Profile picture
@Ch_Trebesch
Sep 7 • 8 tweets • 3 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Scrolly
📢 New update of our Ukraine Support Tracker. The big news: Europe overtakes the US by a large margin (total EU now 2x US). If we add UK, NOR, CH, then US commitments are only 45% of Europe’s (€70 bn vs €156 bn). This is a major shift compared to first year of war. A thread 1/7 Image
The key development is a shift to multi-year packages in Europe. The EU Commission announced a €50 bn “Ukraine Facility” in its budget (2024-27), making it the single largest donor👇. Norway promised €6.6 bn over 5 years. Additional multi-year packages came from 🇩🇰🇸🇪🇵🇹🇱🇹🇨🇭🇩🇪 🇬🇧 Image
The EU also caught up with the US in military aid commitments. If we add Norway and the UK, then Europe's total military pledges now clearly exceed those of the US. This is the first time we see that in our data since early 2022 Image
The new European multi-year packages shift the rankings in % of GDP (EU-level aid and refugee aid not included, see our website for that). For bilateral aid as % of GDP, Norway is now Nr. 1, followed by the Baltics. Germany enters top 10 for the first time, the US drops out Image
On Germany, I have been very critical in the past, but it has become a major, reliable donor, incl. a new €10bn military package. Total promised aid is now €51 bn (10bn short & 10bn long-term bilaterally, 17bn EU aid share + 14bn for refugees). That is not far from US (€70bn) Image
On heavy weapons (tanks, howitzers, MLRS etc), Germany now accounts for almost half of all EU commitments (47% of total delivered and promised by EU countries, according to our estimates). Similairly, GER has now committed almost half as much as the US 👇 Image
As always, kudos to the team @kielinstitute: Pietro Bomprezzi, Katelyn Bushnell, André Frank, Lukas Franz, Ivan Kharitonov, Christopher Schade and Leon Weiser. Feedback very welcome (ukrainetracker@ifw-kiel.de). More details, data, and graphs here: ifw-kiel.de/ukrainetracker
forgot to tag frequent readers that contribute to this debate @carlbildt, @OlafGersemann, @GuntramWolff, @MSchularick, @BachmannRudi, @CarloMasala1, @SamRamani2, @YGorodnichenko, @thorstenbenner, @manta_greg, @nicolange_, @adam_tooze, @GresselGustav, @GFelbermayr

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Christoph Trebesch

Christoph Trebesch Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @Ch_Trebesch

Christoph Trebesch Profile picture
Jul 6
📢New Update of our Ukraine Support Tracker. Due to Ukraine's counteroffensive, I had expected to see a big new wave of support. Once data collection was done, I was surprised how small total new commitments were March-May 👇 Plus: only ~50% of promised weapons have arrived. A 🧵 Image
The biggest new military packages came from Germany (€3.6 bn, in the form of “Ertüchtigungshilfe” to pay for industry deliveries + BW stocks), as well as Denmark (€765 m). Poland and Slovakia delivered MiG jets. Below is the new ranking by military commitments. However.... Image
There is a big gap between committments and deliveries. We find that only 50% of heavy weapons promised by Western countries arrived in Ukraine. Eastern European delivered 85% of their promises, on avg. Here is one of our new rankings of heavy weapon deliveries (here: tanks): Image
Read 7 tweets
Christoph Trebesch Profile picture
Mar 28
📢New paper on China's role in global finance and the difficulties of the Belt and Road. Sebastian Horn, @carmenmreinhart, Brad Parks and I show that China has created a new global system of rescue lending to countries in debt distress (large bailouts) 👇This is what we find, a🧵
We know that China’s BRI went from boom to bust. Fresh lending is down; debt distress & restructurings are up. This papers now shows that Chinese creditors also reacted by extending large bailouts to crisis countries (new hand-coded dataset 2000-21). The system has 2 pillars
The first pillar is the global swap line network created by the People’s Bank of China. Officially, the purpose is to foster trade and investment in RMB. We code the actual drawings (for the first time) and find that this money is actually going to crisis countries in distress
Read 15 tweets
Christoph Trebesch Profile picture
Feb 21
📢Is Western aid to Ukraine large or small? Our new Ukraine Tracker release takes a "big picture view" over 100 years. Main insight: It's comparatively small. US expenses in previous wars were far higher &the EU mobilized 10x more for other crises (Euro, Covid19, energy crisis)🧵
Let us first look at UKR support over the course of 2022. We see a repeating pattern: the US leads, Europe follows. As of Jan 15, 2023, the US (€73bn) is again clearly ahead of the EU (€55bn, members + EU Commission)
Another clear pattern in 2022: The US gives large military aid to UKR, the EU focuses on financial aid (much of this aid remains undisbursed, however).
Read 13 tweets
Christoph Trebesch Profile picture
Dec 7, 2022
📢8th update of the Ukraine Tracker. 3 insights: 1) for the first time, the EU surpassed the US in total commitments for UKR👇, 2) GER now ranks 2nd, above the UK (counting bilateral+ EU aid); 3) A new ranking quantifies how transparent countries are on their UKR support. A🧵 Image
Total EU aid was boosted by a new €18 bn financial package (MFA program). The commitment was just vetoed by Hungary, but this setback will likely be resolved. Recall that the €9 bn EU MFA of May also involved lots of haggling (>6 months to be paid out) reuters.com/world/europe/e…
Total US commitments decreased by €3.7 bn, because the US budget year 2022 ended with large amounts of Ukraine aid not having been disbursed. Specifically, we subtract unused (i.e. expired) aid from the so called FMF und USAI funds (of course, all funds for 23 still counted)
Read 12 tweets
Christoph Trebesch Profile picture
Oct 11, 2022
📢7th Update of the Ukraine Tracker. Highlights: 1) In Aug and Sept, the US promised large new aid, Europe promised almost nothing new, see below. 2) On heavy weapons we have a new ranking. Some governments donated >30% of their howitzers, MRLs or tanks to UKR, most pledged none.
Since July, EU countries delivered some new weapons and specified how they will use funds for weapon purchases (fulfilling old promises). But they stopped committing large new aid. Maybe €5bn EU MFA aid will finally be disbursed in Oct, promised since May app.23degrees.io/view/X3Rr0Fvzw…
Germany is among the more active European donors and clarified how it will use the €1.2 bn funds allotted for weapon purchases in April 2022. Until 2023 it will send Gepards, Dingos, Zusana-2 howitzers, IRIS-T air defenses. All modern, valuable weapons: dw.com/en/russia-ukra…
Read 13 tweets
Christoph Trebesch Profile picture
Aug 18, 2022
6th update of the Ukraine Tracker. Main insight: New commitments to Ukraine went to almost zero in July (only ca €1.5 bn added, of this €1 bn by Norway). No major new pledges by the large European powers 🇩🇪🇮🇹🇫🇷🇪🇸, see graph (some promised weapons were delivered, though)
The decline in military support does not bode well for Ukraine's plans for a counteroffensive. Dwindling support increases the likelihood of a stalemate or of further Russian advances, as pointed out by @KofmanMichael and @CarloMasala1
Also delays in delivering aid continue, especially on financial aid (the gap on military aid has decreased). Ukraine still needs $5bn per month, but is getting less than half of that, the rest needing to be financed with domestic borrowing (-->inflation) app.23degrees.io/view/X3Rr0Fvzw…
Read 9 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Send Email!

:(