📢Ukraine Tracker update: The new US aid package is large, but no game changer. It will help to bring Western support back to the level of early 2023, but only for about 6 months. Europe remains in lead on overall support, but did NOT fill the gap left by the US. What else? 1/8 Western support to UKR has collapsed since mid-2023, with US aid falling to zero and Europe providing "aid as usual." Our data show that total aid flows to UKR have fallen by 50% compared to last year. Europe has clearly not made up for the decline in US aid👇 2/8

📢Big Ukraine Tracker Update: We started to track “aid allocation” (for delivery in near term), not just “commitments”. This reveals big differences in effective aid across Europe. Nordics & GER have moved far ahead in their allocated military aid (not just in their promises) 1/8 The picture changes with military aid allocations in % of donor GDP. Scandinavian countries again stand out, but also the Baltics. Germany with its large GDP now ranks much lower, comparable to Czechia, Slovakia, POL, NL or UK. Caveat: FRA, IT, POL not fully transparent. 2/8

📢 New update of our Ukraine Support Tracker. The big news: Europe overtakes the US by a large margin (total EU now 2x US). If we add UK, NOR, CH, then US commitments are only 45% of Europe’s (€70 bn vs €156 bn). This is a major shift compared to first year of war. A thread 1/7 The key development is a shift to multi-year packages in Europe. The EU Commission announced a €50 bn “Ukraine Facility” in its budget (2024-27), making it the single largest donor👇. Norway promised €6.6 bn over 5 years. Additional multi-year packages came from 🇩🇰🇸🇪🇵🇹🇱🇹🇨🇭🇩🇪 🇬🇧

📢New Update of our Ukraine Support Tracker. Due to Ukraine's counteroffensive, I had expected to see a big new wave of support. Once data collection was done, I was surprised how small total new commitments were March-May 👇 Plus: only ~50% of promised weapons have arrived. A 🧵 The biggest new military packages came from Germany (€3.6 bn, in the form of “Ertüchtigungshilfe” to pay for industry deliveries + BW stocks), as well as Denmark (€765 m). Poland and Slovakia delivered MiG jets. Below is the new ranking by military commitments. However....

📢New paper on China's role in global finance and the difficulties of the Belt and Road. Sebastian Horn, @carmenmreinhart, Brad Parks and I show that China has created a new global system of rescue lending to countries in debt distress (large bailouts) 👇This is what we find, a🧵 We know that China’s BRI went from boom to bust. Fresh lending is down; debt distress & restructurings are up. This papers now shows that Chinese creditors also reacted by extending large bailouts to crisis countries (new hand-coded dataset 2000-21). The system has 2 pillars

📢Is Western aid to Ukraine large or small? Our new Ukraine Tracker release takes a "big picture view" over 100 years. Main insight: It's comparatively small. US expenses in previous wars were far higher &the EU mobilized 10x more for other crises (Euro, Covid19, energy crisis)🧵 Let us first look at UKR support over the course of 2022. We see a repeating pattern: the US leads, Europe follows. As of Jan 15, 2023, the US (€73bn) is again clearly ahead of the EU (€55bn, members + EU Commission)

📢8th update of the Ukraine Tracker. 3 insights: 1) for the first time, the EU surpassed the US in total commitments for UKR👇, 2) GER now ranks 2nd, above the UK (counting bilateral+ EU aid); 3) A new ranking quantifies how transparent countries are on their UKR support. A🧵 Total EU aid was boosted by a new €18 bn financial package (MFA program). The commitment was just vetoed by Hungary, but this setback will likely be resolved. Recall that the €9 bn EU MFA of May also involved lots of haggling (>6 months to be paid out) reuters.com/world/europe/e…

📢7th Update of the Ukraine Tracker. Highlights: 1) In Aug and Sept, the US promised large new aid, Europe promised almost nothing new, see below. 2) On heavy weapons we have a new ranking. Some governments donated >30% of their howitzers, MRLs or tanks to UKR, most pledged none. Since July, EU countries delivered some new weapons and specified how they will use funds for weapon purchases (fulfilling old promises). But they stopped committing large new aid. Maybe €5bn EU MFA aid will finally be disbursed in Oct, promised since May app.23degrees.io/view/X3Rr0Fvzw…

6th update of the Ukraine Tracker. Main insight: New commitments to Ukraine went to almost zero in July (only ca €1.5 bn added, of this €1 bn by Norway). No major new pledges by the large European powers 🇩🇪🇮🇹🇫🇷🇪🇸, see graph (some promised weapons were delivered, though) The decline in military support does not bode well for Ukraine's plans for a counteroffensive. Dwindling support increases the likelihood of a stalemate or of further Russian advances, as pointed out by @KofmanMichael and @CarloMasala1

Which governments are helping Ukraine? The 2nd update of our ”Ukraine Support Tracker” was just released, paper and data here: ifw-kiel.de/ukrainetracker. We now count commitments January 24 to April 23, thus adding two months to the previous release. A thread on our main findings: The ranking of main donor governments is similar to before. The US leads with a large margin, followed by Poland and the UK. Canada ranks 4th, as we now count its large support in Febr. 22. Germany ranks 5th, following its €1.2 bn pledge to finance weapons purchases for Ukraine

Welche Regierungen unterstützen die Ukraine und in welcher Form? Meine Koautoren und ich vom @kielinstitute haben heute den Ukraine Support Tracker (Datenbank + Papier) veröffentlicht: ifw-kiel.de/de/themendossi…. Die USA sind bei weitem der wichtigste Unterstützer. Ein thread Der Tracker erfasst militärische, finanzielle und humanitäre Hilfen, die öffentlich bekannt sind. Der Fokus liegt auf zugesagte Regierungshilfen. Private Spenden oder Hilfe internationaler Organisationen haben wir (noch) nicht systematisch erhoben.

Which countries help Ukraine and how? For answers, my coauthors and I @kielinstitute created the Ukraine Support Tracker. The paper and data just went online ifw-kiel.de/ukrainetracker. Spoiler: The US government is by far the most supportive. A thread We trace military, humanitarian, and financial aid flows to Ukraine, focusing on aid by 31 Western governments. Private donations and aid by multilateral organizations like the UN are not (yet) included. We value in-kind support using market prices (upper bounds)