1/ As of September 7, 2023, based on satellite imagery from September 6th shared in this thread and comparative analysis, it is clear that Ukrainian forces are inflicting significant damage on russian fortified defenses in the vicinity of Verbove and Novoprokopivka.
🧵Thread:
2/ While I cannot definitively confirm troop control from imagery alone, it's clear that the russian forces are encountering intense artillery fire. The obliterated positions behind the 'Surovikin line' near Verbove suggest they may be struggling to defend the area.
3/ This image, captured a week ago, can serve as a valuable point of comparison, indicating that the pressure on russian defenses has been consistently maintained.
4/ An additional image from September 6th corroborates earlier reports regarding the sustained pressure and ongoing combat in the northeastern area of Novoprokopivka. This confirmation is evident when comparing the shelling and scorched earth patterns.
5/ It's worth noting that russia claims that it conducts counter-attacks in the southwestern sector of Robotyne. Satellite imagery reveals minor changes in the area, suggesting some activity, but russia has not provided any evidence to showcase any success
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Debates over losses are always heated, but hard data cuts through the noise. Frontelligence Insight analyzed Russian documents released by the I Want to Live project, giving insight on soldiers of the 8th Army who went missing in action. 🧵Thread:
2/ From January 2024 to June 2025, 6,921 soldiers and officers of the 8th Army were reported missing in action. Part of the Southern Military District, the 8th Army has primarily operated in Donetsk Oblast, with elements recently deployed at Pokrovsk to reinforce the 58th Army.
3/ Looking at the timeline, losses in 2025 have significantly peaked compared with 2024. The number of monthly MIA cases more than doubled and remained consistent throughout 2025, reflecting the period of active offensive operations, particularly in Donetsk.
Commented to the FT on pressure to cede territories:
“The constitution limits his power: he has no legal right to alter Ukraine’s territorial integrity. Even more constraining is pressure from society and, crucially, the military, which opposes giving up unoccupied territory"
“President Zelenskyy is caught between a rock and a hard place,” the article concludes with my comment.
Given the opportunity, I also want to add that if peace is to be negotiated, we cannot start with non-starter demands, which our President won't be able to accept
Diplomacy is the art of compromise and seeking constructive solutions. Ukraine has been constructive, avoiding maximalist demands, but if Moscow imposes such demands, the Trump administration should recognize that Ukraine is not the party which obstructs his vision and peace
Russians plan to produce 79,000 Shahed-type drones in 2025, including 40,000 Geran-2; 5,700 Garpiya-1; and ~ 34,000 “Gerbera” and other decoys, according to Major General Vadym Skibitskyi, Deputy Chief of the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine. More key data in the thread🧵:
2/ Around 11,000 North Koreans remain in the Kursk region and, more broadly, across the European part of Russia. They are stationed at the training grounds where four brigades were initially formed. An additional 1,200 North Koreans are expected to arrive in the Kursk region.
3/ Russia and North Korea have reached a preliminary agreement to deploy 6,000 personnel for demining, engineering, infrastructure projects, and medical services, with 1,200 forming the first batch.
Good commentary on the situation from Michael Kofman: I agree with his vision. He notes, “The next few days will prove telling,” and I’d like to expand from here. This may be Russia’s most favorable moment, meaning we are already seeing, or will soon see,its peak effort.🧵Thread:
2/ The main reason is the upcoming Aug. 15 talks between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump. Putin will almost certainly try to create the worst possible conditions for Ukrainian forces to strengthen his hand at the table.
3/ Given recent Russian gains near Pokrovsk, Putin may try to show Trump that Russia is close to trapping Ukraine’s army. Earlier this year, Trump wrote that Russians encircled Ukrainian troops in Kursk after early discussions with Putin, likely echoing arguments presented to him
Please refer to my note from four days ago - this is critical. In both 2014 and 2015, Russia launched major offensives ahead of negotiations to gain leverage. The current situation is serious, but far from the collapse some suggest. So, what is actually happening on the ground?
2/ A collapse, in military terms, means a loss of command and control, a breakdown in battlefield awareness, and an inability to regroup, withdraw in an organized fashion, or coordinate with units. To the best of my knowledge, none of these conditions are currently present.
3/ The situation more closely resembles events of May 2024, when Russian forces slipped through unprepared Ukrainian defenses along the border and advanced nearly 10 kilometers. That incursion was eventually contained and remained a localized pocket.
A few more notes on Pokrovsk. Penetrations and developing envelopments rarely begin with a local commander’s decision. They stem from deeper problems on strategic level - starting with a shortage of manpower, itself the result of ineffective recruitment and a lack of trust:
2/ If units are only 25% manned but spread out as if they were fully staffed, and if there aren’t enough drones or trained pilots, then blaming a battalion or brigade commander is nothing more than scapegoating.
3/ Holding drills near the border or front lines under enemy drone surveillance, resulting in missile strikes, digging trenches in open fields, and similar acts of negligence all erode trust in leadership and, ultimately, weaken mobilization.