Thread by @TrentTelenko

There is an on-going, extensive and systemic fuel distribution problem in Russia.

I touched on an aspect of it in an earlier thread, the substitution of gasoline powered cars for tactical and semi trucks moving supplies to Mariupol.

Russia's fuel distribution crisis🧵

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https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1699223968333394206

There are reports of gasoline shortages in Crimea.

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https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1700220924165849300

30 out of 61 Gazprom stations at Rostov-on-the Don are without fuel.👀

H/T @RayMindMusic

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Rostov-on-the-Don isn't alone:

"Russia's Krasnodar Krai, Astrakhan, & Volgograd oblasts are facing fuel shortages. Fuel market participants also reported no petrol at petrol stations in the Novosibirsk, Ryazan & Samara oblasts, as well as in Kalmykia"
4/
pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/…

Russian Interfax reports the following statement from statement from Minister of Agriculture of the Russian Federation Dmytro Patrushev:

"We have problems with availability. We will now stop harvesting and we will not sift through the winter crops. It will be a disaster...
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...The problem with fuel is glaring, it must be dealt with by everyone,"

The Ukrainian paper that picked up that statement titled their article as follows:

"Russia has serious problems with gasoline: there is no fuel even for the harvest"
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unian.ua/economics/ener…

No gasoline for the Russian harvest is a "heart attack serious" shortage for the world.

Especially given the flooding in Greece hit the farmlands there very hard.

For reference, Kuban in south Russia is a major grain farming area as are Krasnodar and further South.

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While St Petersburg and Moscow remain unaffected.

Ukraine border oblasts including Kursk and Belgorod are also reporting high gasoline prices and spot shortages.

Russian truck and rail distribution both seem to be heavily affected, lots of reasons.

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Cistern rail wagons/cars and petroleum oil and lubricants (POL) Semi-tractor trailers tend to be devoted to specific trades.

You don't put heavy/sour and light/sweet crude oil, or different distillates (diesel/gasoline), in the same container without cleaning/reconditioning

9/

...between loads.

In the USA this generates a lot of EPA regulated waste water that requires hazmat treatment/disposal. This is generally avoided, if at all possible.

Russia in wartime is a different matter.

This means a lot of Gazprom trade gasoline cistern cars...

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...and tractor trailers have been transferred over to moving diesel for the Russian Army.

The end result is a lot Russian civilian light vehicles & agricultural tractors/harvesters that are usually gasoline fuelled are being impacted.

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Ukrainian signals intelligence, drones, partisans, special forces & western deep strike precision guided munitions like Storm Shadow and GMLRS have combined to force a huge battlefield and operational use attrition on the Russian fuel transport fleets.
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newlinesmag.com/argument/ukrai…

It's not just the fact fuel and artillery ammo weighs a lot and wears out truck tires. (H/T @RALee85)

In addition, we are entering a period where the long term wear on western embargoed Russian rail engine and rail wagon bearings is making itself felt.

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Back in Sept-Oct 2022 I spoke a lot about the problems this bearing embargo would represent for Russia and quote-posted comments like this:

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https://twitter.com/UndercoverDane/status/1582050628989517824

And posts like this to give Twitter/X readers an idea what sort of rail transportation operational attrition the Russian Federation state railroad would be suffering going forward.

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https://twitter.com/BeneficialBuoy/status/1576030401641910274

My October 2022 thread is quote-posted below.

Rough order, Western railway roller bearings last 2 million kilometers in normal service with good rails and reliable preventive maintenance cycles.

That is 108 round trips from Moscow to Vladivostok...

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https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1582395443211776001

...and back in about 63 months on an 80% usage rate.

The Russians redlined the Trans-Siberian railway between Nov 2021 and March 2022 to move the Russian Army pig down the railway python at 100% for five months.

Russian english media sources said this 100% usage...

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...picked up again to 100% in Sept 2022 to replace Western consumer, intermediate & war goods with Chinese equivalents.

Note that like truck tires, Chinese rail bearings are much inferior in life span to the Western equivalents. This means things.

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The Russian railway rolling stock is about 45% late Cold War era vintage and it was due for normal replacement over the next 10 years.

The last two years supporting the "SMO" military logistics haven't been "normal".

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This is why I told CNN that:

"Overstressing Cold War era transportation is a seriously stupid idea on a lot of levels.

And that is exactly what the Russians are doing."

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edition.cnn.com/2023/09/07/asi…

Cistern rail wagons/cars tend to be the heaviest loads on railways because of the center of gravity safety issue of sloshing liquids in partially filled wagons/cars.

You only send full or empty cistern cars if you can help it.

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A breakdown of Russian fuel distribution by attrition of Cold War era cistern wagon/car's with burnt out Western rail bearings is due about now.

And we are now seeing widespread evidence that it is occurring.

22/22 End