Thread by @TheNavroopSingh

The #EconomicCorridor & #GasPipeline Wars !!

⛽️ In 1989, Qatar and Iran began to develop the South Pars/North Dome natural gas field which is buried 3,000 meters below the floor of the Persian Gulf. With 51 trillion cubic meters of gas and 50 billion cubic meters of liquid condensates, it is the largest natural gas field in the world. Approximately 1/3 of this gas field belongs to Iran and other 2/3 belongs to Qatar. The major market for this gas is Europe. Iran has strategic ties with Syria and Syria is backed by Russia. Qatar is aligned with the US and Europe.

⛽️In 2009, Qatar proposed to President Bashar Assad of Syria to build a pipeline to send its gas northwest via Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Syria which would eventually reach Europe. Two different routes for such a pipeline were possible. One would lead from Qatar through Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq to Turkey. The other would go through Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria and on to Turkey. Assad refused to agree to the proposal by Qatar to build a pipeline through Syria.

⛽️ However Saudi Arabia wasn’t comfortable with Qatarese Gas going through its territory & scuttled the idea.

⛽️However Erdogan in 2010 proposed a project with Qatar to supply natural gas to Europe through a Turkish hook-up with the proposed Nabucco pipeline. The Nabucco pipeline would transport Central Asian and Middle Eastern gas to Europe bypassing Russia.

⛽️ Responding to the building of the Nabucco pipeline, Russia built the North Stream pipeline which has been exporting gas from Russia under the Baltic Sea to Germany since 2011. In addition, Russia took on theSouth Stream project in 2007, which is to export gas from Russia, under the Black Sea and through the Balkans to western Europe.

⛽️ In July, 2013, the Nabucco pipeline project which was sponsored by the European Union (EU) and was to have transported gas from the Caspian Sea to Europe in order to bypass Russia was cancelled.

⛽️ Turkey attempted to persuade Syrian President Bashar Assad to reject the Iran-Iraq-Syria pipeline and to work with the proposed Qatar-Turkey pipeline, which would ultimately satisfy Turkey and the Gulf Arab nations’ quest for dominance over gas supplies, who are the United State’s allies. But after Assad refused Turkey’s proposal, Turkey and its allies became the major architects to start Syria’s “civil war.”

⛽️ In 2010, Assad pursued negotiations for an alternative $10 billion pipeline plan with Iran, across Iraq to Syria, that would also potentially allow Iran to supply gas to Europe from its shared gas field with Qatar. It would be completed by 2016.  Russia blessed this project possibly believing that it would have an easier time dealing with Iran than Qatar to control gas imports to Europe from Iran, the Caspian Sea region, and Central Asia.

⛽️ In July, 2011, just weeks after civil war broke out in Syria, the Tehran Times released a report entitled, “Iran, Iraq, Syria Sign Major Gas Pipeline Deal“. The report provided details on Iranian plans to export its vast natural gas reserves to Europe through a pipeline that would travel through both Iraq and Syria.

⛽️This new Iran-Iraq-Syria pipeline would reportedly be the largest gas pipeline in the Middle East and would span from Iran’s gas-rich South Pars field to the Mediterranean coastline in Lebanon through Iraq and Syria. The Iran-Iraq-Syria pipeline is sometimes called the Islamic Gas Pipeline (IGP).

⛽️ In July, 2013, Russia rejected a Saudi proposal to abandon Syria’s president, Bashar Assad, in return for a huge arms deal and a pledge to boost Russian influence in the Arab world. On July 31, 2013, Russian President Vladimir Putin, a strong backer of Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad, met Saudi Arabia’s intelligence chief Prince Bandar bin Sultan.

⛽️ As a result, the U.S., France, Britain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Turkey — aka, the new “Friends of Syria” coalition — began to publicly call for the overthrow of Syrian President Bashar Assad between 2011 and 2012 after Assad’s refusal to sign onto the Qatar gas pipeline through Syria to Europe. Qatar began working to oust the Assad regime by funding rebel groups to the tune of an estimated $3 billion between 2011 and 2013.

⛽️ Russia alone accounts for about 1/5 of Turkey’s energy consumption, more than any other country. According to a Bloomberg report, Russia provides around 57 percent of Turkey’s natural gas. The whole Turkish energy security architecture depends on gas from Russia and Iran. Reason why Erdogan constantly speaks for Russia at Multi-Lateral Fora

America finally achieved its motive of disconnecting Europe substantially from Russian gas. Going against Nord Stream Pipeline 2 between Russia & Germany. Blowing of up Nordstream. The pipeline & energy wars have been going for decades. The Syrian war was all about this tug of war

The #TradeCorridor Wars IMEE EC vs BRI

Important Cog in the wheel Eurasian links from Greece & Italy (Only G7 country) which had signed up for which it has now withdrawn from dealing a severe blow to China’s Eurasian Ambitions.

💠China and Iran signed a 25-year strategic cooperation agreement on March 27, 2021, addressing economic issues amid crippling US sanctions on Iran.

💠 The deal was reached on the 50th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Iran and hailed as a major step forward that will see China invest US$400-600 billion into the Iranian economy.

18 Page Documents were leaked about Iran-China accord of 2021. The summary is annexed.

💠Indian NSA Doval had recently visited Iran to meet President Raeisi about finalizing a revision of a contract they signed in 2016 to jointly develop the Chabahar port. Iranians have recently launched a new shipping line from Chabahar Port to India’s Nhava Sheva.

💠Iran has recently grown close to China due to signing up with BRI & trade by Railways into Iran despite US & Western Sanctions. While India has dialled down Iranian Oil imports under US pressure, China continues to import just recently US ships in Gulf apprehended two Oil containers headed towards China from Iran.

Now at #G20DelhiDeclaration

💠 IMEE EC was announced connecting India to Middle East via shipping lanes from West Indian ports to the ones in UAE from there a Rail Link via KSA, Jordan all the way to Israel port of Haifa ! - Eastern Corridor

💠 The Northern Corridor involves shipping from Israeli coast to Greece, Italy onwards to France & Germany. This is will Infrastructure/Hydrocarbon (Oil/Gas)/ Digital Economic Corridor connecting India with Eurasia.

💠 India is already part of INSTC Trade between India, Iran & onwards to Russia. Though this is operational yet Western Sanctions on Iran & Russia and Iran close alignment with China after BRI & 25 year agreement means the full potential of this trade corridor is not being realised

💠Thus the announcement of IMEE EC is significant it not only rivals China’s BRI which is primary aim of this announcement while damaging Russia energy supply to Europe as now Saudi Arabia/UAE could provide energy like Oil/Gas to Europe via Jordan, Israel to Greece & Italy.

💠Even Turkish President Erdogan has reacted sharply saying no corridor can be built while ignoring/bypassing Turkey’s role in Gas transit. Meanwhile Israeli PM Netanyahu has welcomed this.

💠Only cog in the wheel is relations between KSA & Israel to make this trade possible. Given MBS efforts & American’s willingness to draw up action plan on this deal in 60 days; it would be not be surprising if KSA becomes part of Abraham Accords and overcome the difficulties in involving Israel in this 🇮🇱 !

💠India signing up this IMEE EC pact is indeed historical as its clear cut signal that it is now ready to take global mantle and challenge the narrative to BRI of China. This is like music to West’s ears… !!!

💠The West’s game play in INDIA-MIDDLE EAST- EUROPEAN ECONOMIC CORRIDOR is about getting an alternate Trade/Hydrocarbons & Digital Corridor connecting India to Europe through Middle East undercutting BRI of China & Energy Pipelines of Russia.

💠America in the West has tasked the its officers to create an action plan within 60 days to start implementation of this project. What will follow is bi-lateral agreements to include Israel & Jordan into it while further drawing up blueprints of this economic corridor.

💠The Bi-Polarity in this project is visible. The Chinese, Russians & Turks won’t be happy about it. The Gulf arab monarchies who want to modernise like MBS in KSA & MBZ of UAE would be elated. They get get to tap into huge markets in India & Europe.

💠 For India this is a golden opportunity as a leader of global south to integrate itself into pivotal player in global trade & commerce outside of Russia-China Axis.

💠Unlike the BRICS, the West has the institutional setup to fund and underwrite this mega project rivalling the BRI of China. This is the revival of the same route that was used for Spice trade from India prior to arrival of EIC.

According to a 15th century saying: “No man should die who can afford cinnamon.”

The spice trade was a commercial activity of ancient origin which involved the merchandising of spices, incense, herbs, and other drugs between historic civilizations in Asia, Africa and Europe. These aromatic substances became even more mysterious over time as they were connected in many cultures with the idea of a faraway paradise — Eden.

💠 With the advent of maritime trade, the spice trade flourished over centuries. Arabs were the first to hold sway over Kerala spice trade way back in 600 BC. Commodities such as pepper (a symbol of luxury and riches at that time), cinnamon, and oil were imported to Arabia through the Persian Gulf and the Arab merchants sold them at their will without even revealing their sources of origin.

💠The coast of Malabar thus remained enigmatic to many. Romans also imported huge quantities of pepper from Kerala. In fact, the Arab monopoly continued for centuries until the advent of European colonialism. Portuguese explorer Vasco Da Gama reached the shores of Kerala (Kappad, near Calicut) in 1498 with the proclamation, “for Christ and Spices”

💠The spice trade, however, witnessed many twists and turns with the Portuguese, Dutch and British colonial apparatuses seeking to diversify their commercial interests by promoting new cash crops such as tobacco, cashew nut, tea, coffee, rubber, etc besides spices. This had varying effects on the local economy of Kerala and its export potential over years.

💠Thus IMEE Economic Corridor is revival of the old Spice trade route. Once again making India as the pivotal point in global trade. The plan IMEE EC is somewhat similar to the spice trade route before EIC’s advent.