What is Trump’s strategy with this MadMan tactics of Tariffs ! Lets decode the plan & risks involved:

1) US has 7 Trillion $ of Debt which it has to pay in next 6 months in 2025. If the US cannot pay then it has to get it Refinanced.

2) Certainly Trump Admin does not want it Refinanced when 10 Year yield is at 4.8%. Scott Bessent would like to see it at around 3% 10 yield for refinancing debt.

3) For that need to bring down the 10 year yield.

4) DOGE needs to cut federal spending & outlays

5) Drill Oil & get OPEC+ to boost Oil Output which would counter balance any inflation Tariffs may induce.

6) Tariffs increase volatility in the markets, the madman tactics make investors dump risky assets like Equity and shift to long term UST Bonds.

6) As long term bonds buying increases, yields go down, while market crashes/corrects.

7) Federal Expenditure Cuts, Softening labour market during slowing economy, Inflation collapse due to bearish Crude makes the Fed Pivot to cut rates.

8) Fear of recession, de-growth, low inflation, rising unemployment, falling 10 years yields mean Fed gets room to cut Rates.

9) Fed Cuts rates, American debts get renewed at lower interest rates which reduces further issuances.

10) Bessent is aiming for

2-2.5% inflation,
3-3.5% 10 year UST yield
2.5-3.5% GDP Growth
2.75-3% Deficit/GDP
1-1.5 % Fed Funds Rate

11) Another factor which could be deflationary is Adoption of AI as it increases productivity but reduces the usage of Manpower. AI trend is Deflationary overall.

12) Thus an AI boom is on the Horizon & Deep Seek actually helps achieve those conditions. Now think what you want but these AI models were released based on NVIDIA GPUs much like Deep Seek V2 will also be.

13) Tariffs have other motives too like to re-balance trade deficit & stop currency devaluation.

14) The Twin Objective is to Re-Industrialise America & decrease the deficit.

15) Deficit part we talked about. Re-Industrialisation is done via capex but for capex cost of servicing debt needs to come down & DOGE needs to make Government leaner.

16) For Re-Industrialisation of America -

◼️Create Sovereign Wealth Fund & Monetise the Asset side of US Balance Sheets.
◼️Give tax cuts to corporates & middle class to cushion blow of markets & temporary pain.
◼️Nudge PVT sector to start investments & incentivise investment in America
◼️Cut Deficit & cost of servicing debt.
◼️Aim for a Mara Lago Accord to Devalue Dollar making American exports cheaper and competitive.
◼️Capital Controls & mandating re-investment a portion of profits in USA by American Corporates

17) However these short term pain in markets, jobs, unemployment to get DXY to weaken, 10 Year yield to come down and Fed to cut rates are frought with too many risks

🔶 Foreign Countries retaliate US with tariffs & consumer’s suffer leading to decline in GDP growth.
🔶Inflation goes out of hand remains sticky due to Tariffs & Tax Cuts.
🔶Countries flatly refuse to co-operate to Devalue of Dollar
🔶 A Stock market crash wiping out trillions of dollars might shake up confidence in US Economy leading to a rollback or a pause in Tariffs.

18) All this could prolong the short term pain as too many variables need to fall in line for a smooth operation to rescue American Economy

19) And if even one things misfires, it a could lead to a recession (looks less as of now) & that could blow up for Trump in Mid-Terms as he has a window of 1 year to act & act fast.

20) So kindly bear with disruption for Short Term unless Trump Admnst screws up its implementation & we all are royally fucked.

21) Meantime, Global Economies suffer along with USA, markets will stay volatile for next few months.

22) US markets will go in correction while Fed rate cuts & Tax Cuts would induce more discretionary spending good for IT sector specially opting for Adoption of AI. 23) Trump’s commerce secretary has announced that a compromise with Mexico & Canada may be found soon this comes post announcement of retaliatory tariffs by Canada, suspension of StarLink contract in Ontario and 3.4 trillion $ wipeout in S&P post announcement of Trade Tariffs.

24) Cutting Ukraine funding, withdrawing American troops, defunding International Bodies, winding up USAID, cutting down IRS manpower is all part of saving revenue, focus on re-building of US.

25) Its America First with American Exceptionalism in a bid to realise America’s Manifest Destiny by applying Monroe Doctrine.

26) The Madman tactics are securing only & only American interests for what be the costs for Europe or Global Economy. Its America First even if it means US bearing short term pain.

27) Goal is clear, America for Americans; rest can pay, invest and reside or just get out. We dont want freeloaders on our System.

28) A leaner Govt with an Industrialised America leading the Tech race as a Manufacturing power sitting in majestic isolation between two oceans.

29) The Wall Street gets to fund all sides of spectrum to hedge them against each other when it comes to Geo-Political conflicts or dispute.

30) America will build a system of security architecture in Indo-Pacific while reducing presence in Europe once peace deal with Russia is signed on Ukraine.

31) Use of Tariffs & Security Guarantee’s as tools to leverage support for American objectives from Mara Lago Accord, Devalued Dollar, Lesser Trade Barriers, Make in America.

32) And countries who dont co-operate will face fury of American might from Tariffs to Capital Controls to Secondary Sanctions to restricted access to American capital markets.

33) Russians are willing to work with USA, India is willing to strike trade deal, Europe is re-arming itself yet has different priorities i.e. Russia and Turkey unlike USA who sees China as the worthy challenger.

We are in for chaotic yet fascinating times. Fasten ur seatbelt’s !

In one stroke CCP, disrupted the American tech industry sowing doubts & confusion by releasing a prototype build on smuggled NVIDIA Chips via Singapore.

To scale it for complex jobs it needs more NVIDIA H100 which can't be reverse engineered. Making it Open Source to disrupt the American market, sow doubt in investors about 500 Billion $ investment with this cheap prototype.

A perfect psyops targeted at Trump Admnst about to unleash Trade War and Tariffs, develop low cost AI tool to capture the market in non American bloc, attracting more investment and research into Chinese AI industry, application of it in Military technologies.

If you cant replicate or scale it, then let me disrupt it by leaking a basic prototype causing a Trillion $ dollar loss with just 5 million $. #HybridWarfare & #PsyOps at its best ! #TechWar #ColdWar2.0 Did Communists in Silicon Valley help & time it against Trump much like Communist in State Department abetted rise of CCP just after WW2. Alger Hiss & General Marshal et all !

Did the leaky establishment also collaborate in this bid to damage the Silicon Vally Czars backing Trump and his grand plans with Techno-Liberatarian elite !

The Gold thing comes out of FATF Report published in July 2015 on the growing use of gold in place of cash & traditional financial markets as a method for laundering funds as regulators & law enforcement measures have become more successful in the traditional financial markets. In 2023 in Compliance with FATF mandates Govt issues fresh guidelines for Anti-money laundering, countering the financing of terrorism, and combating proliferation financing guidelines for dealers in precious metals and precious stones, 2023 qua Bullion & Diamond Trade.

Iran is no pushover. The IRGC and its paramilitary wing of Shia Militias took control of Iraq & Syria with help of Hezbollah, Assad & Russia eliminated ISIS & stamped down Al Nusra in Syria and the Free Syrian Army propped up by Gulf Arab States, US & Turkey. It has militias in Yemen like Houthi’s having ballistic missiles of 1000Km + targets. Gave handful to UAE-Saudi coalition in Yemen. Blocking and targeting ships in Red Sea. Hezbollah has big network in South & Central America in drug running with drug cartels, arms supplies.

Despite Bush considering Iran as part of Axis of Evil it had a clear policy of not targeting Iranian Generals and Personals. But then Mossad broke the understanding rather went a step further in 2007-08 recruiting Jandullah terrorist in Balochistan to target Iran. Mossad conducted False Flag operations inside Iran via Balochistan recruiting Terrorist groups to target Iran posing as CIA agents. When Washington DC got to know of it, the Bush Administration went ballistic on activities of Mossad. CIA memos of 2007-08 reveal.

The biggest fallout of this election is that corruption will no longer remain an issue and that enforcement agencies like ED/CBI have lost their credibility in the eyes of public with gross misuse of the same. My hope is that PMLA is reviewed but given 2022 judgement of SC, review is unlikely to muster through.

The only hope that a future Government will someday modify the law. The PMLA was enacted pursuant to UN resolutions of 1988 & 1990 to deals with proceeds of crime primarily from Drug Trafficking and offences destabilise the economic security.

After the FATF Review in 2009, it recommended stringent enforcement of money laundering laws however what we did was move Amendments in 2009, 2012 & 2015 when a whole list offences were added to the schedule of it. Taking PMLA far away from the purposes it was meant to be. Under the original PMLA, 2002, the list of “scheduled offences” included provisions from 6 legislations – (i) IPC, 1860; (ii) NDPS Act, 1985; (iii) Arms Act, 1959; (iv) Wildlife Protection Act, 1972; (v) Immoral Traffic (Prevention) Act, 1956 and (vi) Prevention of Corruption Act, 1988. Through the Prevention of Money Laundering (Amendment) Act, 2012 (‘2012 Amendment’) the original schedule was substituted and replaced with a fresh schedule – that included provisions from 28 legislations.

The Liquor Gate Scandal:

IN THE CBI CASE under PoCA SC held

1) The distributors earned 581 crores in 10 months of the policy

2) One Time License Fee 7 crores from 14 distributors

3) The Profit margins were increased from 5 to 12%

4) The SC in Manish Sisodia Judgement states:

“That 7% extra commission earned by the wholesale distributors of 338 crores constitutes as an offence under Section 7 of Prevention Of Corruption Act. These figures can not be disputed and the new excise policy was meant to give windfall gains to select few distributors who in turn agreed to give kickbacks and bribes” (Para 24 & 25) In the PMLA Case by ED

The SC held in Sisodia Case:

1) 220 Crores paid as bribe to Sisodia is not made out by CBI in Chargesheet thus difficult to accept it as proceed of Crime under PMLA (Para 10)

2) SC alleged that whether 100 crore was actually paid by the liquor group is matter of debate and that 45 crores was transferred through Hawala for GOA campaign by AAP. However Sisodia can be vicariously liable under Section 70 cannot be alleged or sustained.

3) Prima Facie is there is lack of clarity on the involvement of Sisoda for transfer of 45 crores to Goa by AAP.

4) These allegations are subject of Trial by ED which should be done with in 6-8 months.

In April 1974" as a worldwide drought and the transformation of American farm policy was in full gear, Nixon's Secretary of State and National Security Adviser, Henry A. Kissinger, sent out a classified memo to select cabinet officials, including the Secretary of Defense" the Secretary of Agriculture, the Deputy Secretary of State and the CIA Director. The title of the top secret memo was “Implications of Worldwide Population Growth for US Security and Overseas Interests”. The memo , dealt with food policy, population growth and strategic raw materials. It had been commissioned by Nixon on the recommendation of John D. Rockefeller III. The secret project came to be called in Washington bureaucratic shorthand, NSSM 200, or National Security Study Memorandum 200

Samvatsar 2081 👀🔱 #ShoolaYoga #MangalRaja #ShaniPM Transit kundli for India Samvatsar 2081 !!! 👀

There was no Monsanto law (Subsoil Water Act of 2009) in Punjab passed by SAD-BJP government that crop harvesting cycle be changed from September to October so thats a price Delhi/NCR is paying for obeying to Monsanto’s crop cycle suggestion !

https://twitter.com/indiahistorypic/status/1720466155746332734

Law aiding Monsanto passed in Punjab in 2009 is reason for Delhi’s annual smoke season - sundayguardianlive.com/news/12191-law…

#IsraelHamasConflict

🔘 Bush Administration war in Iraq and De-Bathification of Iraqi state meant that the fragile equilibrium in Mesopotamia and Levant was disturbed.

🔘As a result there was a vaccum which was then filled by Iran and Shia Militias like Al-Badr whose Nour Al Maliki became the PM and rescinded the Defence Security Agreement with Obama Administration.

🔘The Maliki lead Shia leadership sponsored by Iran oppressed the Sunnis in Iraq and the disgruntled Bath party members joined Qaeda (Al Nusra in Syria) & formed ISIS.

🔘Obama Administration supported Muslim Brotherhood thus PSD-11 regime change in MENA region in garb of Arab Spring. Wave of protests and civil war breakouts happen across the region.

🔘Muslim Brotherhood was actively backed Qatar & Turkey. The Saudis and the Emiratis i.e. Gulf monarchies were always against MB whom they had banned as Terrorist Organisations.

🔘Syrian civil war further mired schims and Obama red lines in sand handed over a victory to Iran, Hezbollah and Shia Militias which further alienated Arab allies. The Shia 🌙 was formed of Iran, Iraq, Syria & Lebanon. 🔘 Obama Nuclear Deal handed a victory lap to Iranians but that meant the peacenicks like Rouhani & Zarif had a chance to turn Iran back to normalcy.

🔘Bibi was steadfast against this normalcy breathing fire on Iranian regime. Enter Trumps who as the manchurian candidate rips apart Iran nuclear deal making US even more unreliable much to delight to Bibi & his war mongering Likud leadership

🔘As a result Rouhani & Zarif was eased out in Iran. The hardline clerics and IRGC took complete control of Iranian state and its power structure taking an ideological stand.

🔘The Killing of solemani in 2020
further pushed Iran away and leading it to signing 25 year agreement with China in 2021 with an investment of 400 billion $ moving away from its neutral position in the last cold war.

Iran under Ayatollah Khomeini’s Revolutionary regime witnessed extreme Shia uprising. Khomeini advocated the doctrine of Wilayat al-Faqih. This doctrine advocates a guardianship- based political system over all the Muslims globally, in the absence of the true Imam.

Khomeini wanted to expand this doctrine across all the Arab states to champion the cause of Islamic revival and create a divine rule from an order based in Tehran. His desire to incorporate the same to all the regions of the Middle East included Sunni-dominated lands. The Iranian Revolutionary Guards have formed and trained over 42 brigades and 138 battalions apart from providing training and logistical support in Syria. In 2015, a prominent Arab media, Al Hayat, reported Iranian patronage for over 100 Shia militant groups in Iraq and Syria. Though the Sunni-backed ISIS is the first group that comes to mind in this region for its barbarity, these Shia group’s brutalities are no less.

(Page 115, The New Global Order, 2016: Asian Warrior)

Hamas is an acronym for Harafat al-Muqawama Al-Is- lamiyya, or Islamic Resistance Movement. Its spiritual leader is Sheikh Ahmed Yassin, who, despite his fiery anti-Israeli sermons, has had an unusual relationship with the Israeli au- thorities. In 1973, Yassin established the Islamic Associa- tion—at a time when it was Israeli policy to promote what Ambassador Kurtzer refers to as the “Islamic movement.” Israel’s relations with Hamas intensified after the Arab League, in 1974, decided to recognize Arafat and the PLO as the representatives of the Palestinian people—in effect, a government in exile. By 1979, Yassin acquired an official permit from the Israeli government of Prime Minister Menachem Begin. This coincided with the signing of the Camp David peace treaty between Israel and Egypt.

The #EconomicCorridor & #GasPipeline Wars !!

⛽️ In 1989, Qatar and Iran began to develop the South Pars/North Dome natural gas field which is buried 3,000 meters below the floor of the Persian Gulf. With 51 trillion cubic meters of gas and 50 billion cubic meters of liquid condensates, it is the largest natural gas field in the world. Approximately 1/3 of this gas field belongs to Iran and other 2/3 belongs to Qatar. The major market for this gas is Europe. Iran has strategic ties with Syria and Syria is backed by Russia. Qatar is aligned with the US and Europe. ⛽️In 2009, Qatar proposed to President Bashar Assad of Syria to build a pipeline to send its gas northwest via Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Syria which would eventually reach Europe. Two different routes for such a pipeline were possible. One would lead from Qatar through Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq to Turkey. The other would go through Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria and on to Turkey. Assad refused to agree to the proposal by Qatar to build a pipeline through Syria.

🚀 Let begin & understand some nuances of India's Cryogenic Engine Programme & how it was likely sabotaged by US. ISRO was successful in the PSLV Programme (Polar Stationary Launch Vehicle) that installed Satellites in Polar Stationary Orbit.

🚀 The other Programme of ISRO was GSLV which began in 1980 to master the launch of Geo Synchronous satellites to GTO. ISRO used Liquid Fuel filled Vikas Engine but the barrier in attaining GTO was the need to master the Cryogenic Engine technology.

🚀USA & USSR were the only nations who mastered the Cryogenic Engine technology. India approached the USA who initially responded positively. US put General Dynamics Corp in charge of providing India a model Cryogenic Engine but flatly refused to share any technology transfers..

🚀Due to escalated Costs & Repeated denials of ToT in Cryogenic Engine. ISRO turned to India's other valued partner at that time - USSR. USSR promised India KVD-1 built by Isayev Design Bureau. The KVD-1 Cryogenic Engine had unmatched thrust and launch capabilities.

🚀 Russia offered 2 fully built KVD-1 engines & also promised complete ToT all for a mere cost of 200 Mn US $ deal.On 18th Jan 1991, ISRO & Russian Space agency Glavkosmos signed agreement for TOT of Cryogenic engines.India could have effectively mutated this Engine & its TOT for IRBM system though mutation of it wasnt an easy process yet was possible. 🚀America actively put every possible pressure on Russia under Yelstin that this transfer of TOT in Cryogenic engine was violation of MTCR. An Indian delegation personally briefed VP, USA the laybacks India had in building ICBM's. Russia was toeing the line of USA post USSR end.

🚀Russia & India did not yield to pressures & US imposed sanctions on ISRO, Russian Space agencies. This choked the ISRO's Cryogenic programme. Under Pressure from Clinton Admnst, Russia finally backed down on the 1991 agreement and supplied 7 fully built engines while denying the TOT to India.

🚀Rumors always circulated that Russia covertly transferred technology to India however this was never confirmed or acknowledged by both sides. However it is speculated, ISRO contacted Air India to transport the components & blue prints w/o revealing the details of the parcels.

🚀Air India turned down the the request raising concerns that CIA would be tipped off on any Indian bound flights. Next in line was Russia's state run Ural Airlines which readily agreed for the deal. The Risk was huge as CIA was scouring to catch hold.

🚀Russia transferred relevant docs, equipments & machinery on board covert Ural Flights. Every single flight was meticulously planned. The transfers were planned in the dead of night slated to carry aircraft components to & from India. This was handled by Namibi Narayan.

🚀 Namibi Narayan made several trips to Russia. The Components reached VSCC, Thiruvananthapuram but were never revealed to the public. Risky was huge. Russia had covertly passed blue prints & basic technology to India for its cryogenic engine dreams. It was covered by Brian Harvey as well.Brian Harvey in his book 'Russian in Space : The Failed Frontier' covered the alleged transfer deal.

According to the World Bank, China is now an upper-income-middle country. The middle-income trap refers to a situation where a developing country’s economic growth slows down after reaching a certain size at around a per capita GDP of $10,000 to $12,000, which stays at that level. Countries that fall into this trap lose the competitiveness of their exports due to rising wages and cannot create high-value-added markets and developed economies. China's GDP in April-June grew by 0.8 percent compared to 2.2 percent in January-March, and it's not due to a slow post-COVID pandemic recovery, but rather it is an accelerated collapse of a real estate bubble that was formed over the past two decades.

Real estate accounts for about 30 percent of China's GDP. Latest official data reveal that new home sales by China’s 100 biggest developers dropped by 33 percent in July from a year ago, despite Beijing’s various real estate incentives.

Mauritius has been the biggest source of Foreign Domestic Investment in India over the last 15 years. In fact, Mauritius accounted for one-third of all inflows of investment into India over the last 15 years. In the same time, the US only accounted for 6.2% of investment.

Black money sent abroad is not the same as black money held abroad. Funds are moved out of India not to be stashed away in Swiss banks but to be brought back as foreign investment. In the case of India, this mostly happens through sham corporations registered in Mauritius. While the money comes back as investments, the earnings on such investments are not taxed in India because India and Mauritius have a double tax avoidance treaty. Between 2000 and 2012, 38% of the foreign direct invest- ment in India came from Mauritius, while only 6% came from the US. Mauritius accounted for $8,059 million of $18,286 million of FDI in India in 2012–2013.

Forty percent of the total FDI coming into India comes from Mauritius. There is no taxation on capital gains in Mauritius, so that if an entity sets up a paper company there, our Double Taxation Avoidance (DTA) Agreement becomes in fact a double non-taxation agreement. Income Tax Department had the power to examine and verify whether the resident status of a company in Mauritius was genuine or not.

American historian Brooke Adams has recorded that “the plunder from the Nawab of Bengal’s treasury was so excessive that it fuelled Britain’s Industrial Revolution from 1760 and changed the worlds lifestyle forever as money alone is capable of being transmuted in any form of activity” . The British sent away an estimated 1 billion pounds to Britain after 1757, and Industrial Revolution took place in 1760. Robert Clive collected 2.5 million pounds for the East India Company and 2,34,000 pounds for himself. To put these figures in perspective, an annual income of 800 pounds was considered sufficient for luxurious living by British nobleman of those days. Thus, the plunder of Bengal after the Battle of Plassey rapidly auto-mechanized the British textile industry.

India explores programmable CBDC, digital rupee with expiry dates sociable.co/government-and… According to the RBI concept note of Digital Rupee ₹, “CBDCs have the possibility of programming the money by tying the end use.”

When it comes to retail transactions, CBDC “tokens may have an expiry date, by which they would need to be spent, thus ensuring consumption.”

मणिपुर में फायरिंग के बीच रात भर फंसा भास्कर रिपोर्टर:कुकी मॉब ने थोरबुंग के पास किया अटैक, CRPF ने बचाया bhaskar.com/db-original/ne… हम जलती हुई इमारत के पास पहुंचे, फोन निकाला और फोटो-वीडियो लेना शुरू किया। तभी एक गोली करीब से सनसनाती हुई निकल गई। हमारी तरफ फायरिंग होने लगी। पास की खंडहर इमारत की तरफ भागे। हम दीवार के पीछे छिपे थे और लगातार फायरिंग हो रही थी। ये सिंगल शॉट नहीं थे, इंसास, एके-47 और एके-56 से… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

CHIPS WAR: The Fight for Global Dominance - open.substack.com/pub/navroopsin… The fourth industrial revolution which is going to revolutionaries the world is going to be based on Technology & Artificial Intelligence. However the basic raw material for the technological revolution are semiconductor chips, the lithographic chip making technology and control of rare earth minerals needed to manufacture these chips. These factors will be critical for determining who wins the tech war which has begun between America & China.

Global mining production of REEs (Rare Earth Elements & Minerals) has been dominated by China since the 1990s, when Chinese production skyrocketed as U.S. production began to fade. In 2012, China accounted for nearly 90 percent of all reported production of REEs. However, during 2012-17, REE production in Australia grew from 3,220 to 19,000 metric tons per year (an average annual growth rate of 52 percent), driving China’s share of production down to 80 percent.