A # of Russian Telegram channels posted videos of explosions and a fire reportedly at the 13th Ship Repair Plant in Sevastopol, possibly from a missile strike.
Mikhail Razvozhaev shared a photo that appears to show the port side of a Ropucha-class Project 775 large landing ship that sustained damage. 4/ t.me/razvozhaev/3849
The Russian MoD acknowledges that two ships that were undergoing repairs were damaged in the attack by cruise missiles. They claim Ukraine launched 10 cruise missiles and three naval drones. 6/ t.me/mod_russia/304…
Reportedly footage of Russian air defenses during tonight’s attack. 7/ t.me/chp_sevastopol…
Baza says the two damage ships/subs were the Black Sea Fleet's Rostov-on-Don Project 636.3 diesel submarine and Baltic Fleet's Minsk Project 775 Ropucha-class large landing ship. 9/ t.me/bazabazon/21385
The Baltic Fleet's Minsk, Korolev, and Kaliningrad Project 775 large landing ships arrived at Sevastopol two weeks before Russia's invasion. 10/
Thread on Russia’s Army 2023 defense expo. The Russian MoD has reportedly signed a contract for a batch of armored “Mad Max” Tigr-M SpN vehicles with Arbalet-DM remote-operated turrets.
Russia's Military Industrial Company is also demonstrating a modernized version of the BTR-82A with a different hull. They previously showed off the BTR-87. This might be an option instead of the Bumerang. 3/
Something happened to the Crimean Bridge over night. Eyewitnesses say they heard an explosion and footage shows smoke rising and the lights turned off on part of the bridge.
Photos from the site of a reported explosion on the bridge. The Mash Telegram channel says there were two explosions about 20 minutes apart. One span was reportedly destroyed. 2/
"Sergei Surovikin...has not been seen since recording a hostage-style video in the early hours of Saturday morning as the mutiny began, according to several people familiar with the matter."
@maxseddon @polinaivanovva @NastyaStognei @felschwartz
https://t.co/PdlZt7v7N1ft.com/content/1d084f…
"Prigozhin’s plan for the mutiny...was widely known in Russian security circles in the days before the former Kremlin caterer declared his “march for justice” on Friday evening, according to people familiar with the matter."
Some early thoughts:
-More questions than answers
-Short-term compromise ≠ long-term solution
-This was a mutiny not a coup
-Too soon to say Putin will fall anytime soon
-Not clear this will affect Ukraine's offensive
-The previous Kremlin-Wagner relationship is over
-Likely an attempt by Prigozhin/Wagner to keep their independence and not be subordinated to the MoD
-May have succeeded in the short-term but probably won't in the long-term
-The terms of the agreement aren't clear but these probably aren't a solution 2/
-What started as a factional dispute between powerful Russian figures became a public challenge to Putin
-This event was designed to get Putin's attention
-Possibly one of the worst days in the Russian Air Force's history and caused by Russians
3/
I think the catalyst for this was the move by the MoD to force all PMCs to sign contracts with them, which likely had Putin's support. There might be a short-term compromise or truce, but I don't think things can go back to normal after this.
The timing was as bad as possible for the MoD. They are heavily committed trying to hold back Ukraine's counteroffensive. That's why Wagner could move so fast with a relatively small force, but the optics for Wagner are very bad. Particularly, if Ukraine makes gains this week. 2/
I think Prigozhin permanently lost support from some war supporters because of this. Putin publicly declared these actions a betrayal, and it appears Wagner shot down several Ru Air Force aircraft, which they need. He also publicly embarrassed Putin and made him look weak. 3/
Before this, certain Russian Telegram channels could side with Prigozhin because the conflict was between him and the MoD. It is now with Putin. Siding with Prigozhin now is much more dangerous, and it comes at a time when the Russian military is facing a Ukrainian offensive. 2/
And Wagner seems to have shot down three Russian military helicopters today. Hard to see how that could be considered a popular move. The safe bet for most people is to remain loyal to Putin, and governors are already stating that publicly. 3/
https://t.co/kHk1bLDyoCt.me/voenacher/47246