Hot CPI numbers as expected - inflation accelerated again in Aug; here’s a plain-English, deep dive thread explaining the real-life impact of inflation 🧵...
First the headlines: 3.7% increase in CPI and 4.3% increase in core CPI, over twice the 2% target; monthly CPI rose 0.6%, hottest monthly reading in 14 months, an annualized rate of 7.8% - at that pace, prices double every 9.2 years:
And those monthly numbers show we haven’t been trending to 2% but 3%+ while cumulative inflation under Biden is about 17%, an annualized rate of 6.1%, meaning prices double in less than 12 years:
However, prices for many consumer staples are up even more than that cumulative 17 percent:
Despite wages being up 13%, prices have risen so much faster that real (inflation-adjusted) hourly earnings are way down; average worker now paying more in inflation tax than federal income tax on his or her hourly earnings:
But hours have also been getting cut as business slows, so that real weekly earnings are down even more; typical American family’s weekly paycheck is about $230 bigger, but buys about $100 less:
Only 5 months of Biden’s presidency have seen real annual earnings growth outpace inflation:
For the typical American family, this means real annual earnings are down more than $5,100 while financing costs are up about $1,800; the equivalent of a $7,000 annual pay cut:
But that's just an average - if you're one of the poor suckers trying to buy a home today, it'll cost an extra $13,000 per year b/c the monthly mortgage payment on a median price home has doubled under Biden:
As we head into autumn and winter, things are poised to get worse for many families b/c the cost to heat a home is up 25.2% under Biden:
The massive drains to the strategic petroleum reserve were one of the few things (albeit unsustainable) that were keeping down inflation, but now we're right back on the roller coaster:
And there’s no end in sight to inflation b/c the spending just keeps going and the Fed isn’t drawing down the balance sheet fast enough – the inflation outlook sounds like a Clubber Lang fight prediction: “Pain.”
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🚨Senate hearing for Treasury Secretary nominee Scott Bessent is live - this is arguably Trump's most important pick given the precarious state of federal finances
Here we go... 🧵
Chairman Crapo praises Bessent in opening statement, citing Bessent's track record in the financial sector, Ivy League education, adjunct professorship
Crapo also alludes to Trump's promises of a Golden Era and the role Bessent will play in that
Ranking member Wyden immediately besmirches Trump in his opening statement
Ironically, Wyden is saying his voters want change - that is, change from what Democrats in DC have done over the last 4 years
For convenience, here's all the info on the Mar jobs report in a single thread - sorry to be the bearer of bad news, especially regarding American citizens losing so much ground in this economy...
The headline numbers once again look good w/ over 300k payrolls added and the employment number from the household survey rising even faster, but what kinds of jobs are being created? Turns out they're all part-time:
And this isn't new - it's a continuation of a long trend: full-time employment is lower today than Feb '23 w/ all of the net job creation since then being part-time work:
Here's the CPI🧵 on today's dumpster fire of a report - hint: inflation isn't dead, you're $6,800 poorer b/c of it, and it's poised to get much worse next year...
First, the headlines:
CPI rose 0.3% M/M, 3.1% Y/Y
Core (ex- food and energy) rose 0.4% M/M, 3.9% Y/Y
Team Transitory™️ has egg on their face for the thousandth time: we haven't been trending toward 2% but 3% - we're there and there's no indication we're going lower:
Consumer staples have gone through the roof since Jan '21 - here's the basic energy components, all up 20% or more:
Jan jobs report🧵- here's what you need to know that the talking heads and gov't statisticians won't tell you, including why the real unemployment rate is btwn 6.3% and 7.4%...
First the headlines:
Nonfarm payrolls rose 353k last month
Unemployment rate steady at 3.7% (more on that later)
Note that updates to the BLS' data make it difficult to compare Jan '24 to prior months, so this monthly change needs an important qualifier...
In brief, things once again look good b/c prior periods were revised down; the new seasonal adjustments and other changes reduced the number of payrolls in every month last year except Dec; cumulative monthly difference is -1.3 million w/ average monthly difference -126k...
Dec CPI 🧵...
Inflation rips the stake out of its chest, looses a blood-chilling scream, and tells the Fed it's ready for another round; real weekly earnings are down 4.5% since Jan '21 and things are poised to get worse...
First, the headlines:
CPI up 0.3% M/M and 3.4% Y/Y
Core CPI (excludes volatile food & energy) up 0.3% M/M and 3.9% Y/Y
For all the talk of "disinflation," no one seems to have been paying attention to the trend that clearly shows us approaching 3%+ and not the 2% target...
Have to briefly mention health insurance, which I did a deep dive on previously; flawed methodology at BLS erroneously drove the index down for whole year, and now it's payback time, w/ index set to regain that ground in the months to come; up 1.1% M/M, down 27.1% Y/Y...
Dec jobs report 🧵: there's SO much bad news under the hood of this report, including the economy shedding 1.5 million full-time jobs in a single month, big downward revisions, and a true unemployment rate between 6.4% and 7.5% - here's the truth you should know...
First, the headlines: nonfarm payrolls rose 216k on the backs of big downward revisions to previous months and unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.7% - let's delve into why that rate is so low (hint: 676k people left the labor force in Dec)...
LFPR fell hard in Dec, closing the year well below pre-pandemic levels - this is artificially lowering the unemployment rate...