E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. Profile picture
Sep 13 12 tweets 5 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Hot CPI numbers as expected - inflation accelerated again in Aug; here’s a plain-English, deep dive thread explaining the real-life impact of inflation 🧵... Image
First the headlines: 3.7% increase in CPI and 4.3% increase in core CPI, over twice the 2% target; monthly CPI rose 0.6%, hottest monthly reading in 14 months, an annualized rate of 7.8% - at that pace, prices double every 9.2 years: Image
And those monthly numbers show we haven’t been trending to 2% but 3%+ while cumulative inflation under Biden is about 17%, an annualized rate of 6.1%, meaning prices double in less than 12 years: Image
However, prices for many consumer staples are up even more than that cumulative 17 percent:

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Despite wages being up 13%, prices have risen so much faster that real (inflation-adjusted) hourly earnings are way down; average worker now paying more in inflation tax than federal income tax on his or her hourly earnings: Image
But hours have also been getting cut as business slows, so that real weekly earnings are down even more; typical American family’s weekly paycheck is about $230 bigger, but buys about $100 less: Image
Only 5 months of Biden’s presidency have seen real annual earnings growth outpace inflation: Image
For the typical American family, this means real annual earnings are down more than $5,100 while financing costs are up about $1,800; the equivalent of a $7,000 annual pay cut: Image
But that's just an average - if you're one of the poor suckers trying to buy a home today, it'll cost an extra $13,000 per year b/c the monthly mortgage payment on a median price home has doubled under Biden: Image
As we head into autumn and winter, things are poised to get worse for many families b/c the cost to heat a home is up 25.2% under Biden: Image
The massive drains to the strategic petroleum reserve were one of the few things (albeit unsustainable) that were keeping down inflation, but now we're right back on the roller coaster: Image
And there’s no end in sight to inflation b/c the spending just keeps going and the Fed isn’t drawing down the balance sheet fast enough – the inflation outlook sounds like a Clubber Lang fight prediction: “Pain.”

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More from @RealEJAntoni

Sep 4
For Labor Day, here's a plain English overview of America's labor market, context of where we are (including an alternative unemployment rate), and where we're headed 🧵... Image
Job openings (proxy for labor demand) have plummeted and previous levels revised down, level now below pre-pandemic trend for 1st time since Mar '21; job opening rate also below pre-pandemic trend too; lower demand means lower price (wages), implying slower wage growth: Image
There are now 1.5 openings for each unemployed person, 20% higher than the steady pre-pandemic level, but we need context about the size of the labor force and the number of unemployed today... Image
Read 10 tweets
Sep 1
Terrible numbers in Aug #JobsReport and it gets worse with the increasingly suspicious "revisions"...
Here's a deep-dive, plain English 🧵 with what you need to know... Image
First, the headlines: 187k nonfarm payrolls added as unemployment rate climbs to 3.8%
But last two months just lost 110k jobs in downward revisions - meaning 59% of the jobs "gained" in Aug were jobs we thought we already had: Image
While we're on the "revisions" topic - every month this year has been revised down w/ a huge cumulative effect: 355k overestimation, and over 300k from preliminary benchmark, meaning total downward revision of 661k - that's 30% of all the jobs we thought we added this year: Image
Read 8 tweets
Jul 12
Today's CPI print is further confirmation 3% inflation is the new normal - very troubling data being ignored while celebrating retreat from 40-year high inflation...🧵
First some important context: annual inflation has outpaced weekly earnings growth for 26 of last 30 months as people pay hidden tax of inflation:
The rapid rise in prices outpacing hourly earnings is why these lines diverge; consider the distance between them the hourly value of the hidden tax of inflation ($4.55/hr as of last month):
Read 5 tweets
Jul 7
#JobsReport for Jun is lackluster and contains #recession indicators...
209k payrolls added - lowest in 2 and a half yrs
Unemployment rate: 3.6%, up 0.2% YTD
452k additional part-time jobs from economic reasons:
“partially reflecting an increase in the number of persons whose hours were cut due to slack work or business conditions..."
More people are trying to get full-time jobs at same time businesses are cutting them...
Multiple jobholders jumped again, up 233k - that accounts for the entire 209k increase in nonfarm payrolls, and twice the increase after removing last two month's revisions:
Read 11 tweets
Jun 28
What is #Bidenomics? In a word, failure. Talking points aside, here's a thread of nothing but the facts on how the American people have been impacted...
Inflation went from 1.4% under Biden to 40-year highs, and remains "sticky" i.e., not going away; it has risen faster than wages for the last 26 months - a record; so your paycheck is bigger but buys less...

As hours are cut, the drop in purchasing power of weekly paychecks has dropped even more, down 5.1% under Biden:
Read 9 tweets
Jun 15
From NY and Philly Fed Banks: manufacturing continues leading the way towards recession 🧵... Image
NY Fed manufacturing survey has gyrated violently recently but has averaged below zero (contraction territory) for a year; price increases have slowed but not stopped; labor market contracting; planned investment remains low: ImageImageImageImage
Philly Fed manufacturing survey has shown contraction 10 months in a row w/ new orders (canary in coalmine) negative for over a year straight; employment flatlined this month but shortening of workweeks accelerated: ImageImageImageImage
Read 4 tweets

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