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Randy Mott Profile picture
@randymot4
Sep 13, 2023 • 15 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X
Russian in Losing Badly Part 3
This is an update on all of the evience that Russian is losing badly right now.
Frantic efforts to try to get a ceasefire. The Russians are pushing for it, not Ukraine. /1
x.com/EmekaGift100/s…
Major advances pose breakthrough opportunity in the south. Russia loses operational effectiveness of Sevastapol. Russian artillery takes a poounding and is keeps getting worse./2
x.com/Tendar/status/…
NATO equipment crushes Russians. Bradleys. Go to minute 1:30/3
NATO equipment crushes Russians: Leopard2s/4
x.com/BalticSnowTige…
NATO equipment: ATAAKMs, long range missiles on the way soon. The effect will destroy what is left of Russian supply lines./5
Russian artillery losses grow to catastrohpic levels for Kremlin. 1% a day. Other Russian gun tubes start failing (range and accuracy)./6
lookerstudio.google.com/reporting/dfbc…
Experts start seeing good chance for breakthorugh soon. Russian generals see Ukraine winning./7
Europeans past the US in providing total aid to Ukraine and in military aid:/8
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As allies rally to help Ukraine, Russia is alone and isolated. Riussian production cannot keep up with losses and Chinese and North Korea help will not bridge the gap./9
Russian units are depleted and often far below normal strength. Units fill up with conscripts and convicts. Elite units have been fighting more or less constantly and are no longer very effective:/10
Russians used T55 in combat in open area vs Leopard2s and got pounded./11
x.com/randymot4/stat…
Russians now moving more antique armor from 1950s into Ukraine,/12
Ukraine uses innovative tactics to bring the war to Russia far from the front:/13
Ukraine sets the stage for a new front from the east in the Kherson region. Russians cannot seem to respond effectively to initial bridgeheads./14
Shogiu seems to lose a bit of confident with media./15 😀😀
x.com/Gerashchenko_e…

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More from @randymot4

Randy Mott Profile picture
Dec 18, 2023
There are two Russian armies fighting in their invasion of Ukraine. There is the "second army" of the world with massive numbers of tanks and artillery pieces and soldiers that march with precision on Red Square and look like recruiting posters. This army is supported by a massive industrial base making "near peer" equipment at elevated rates.
Then there is another Russian army invading Ukraine. This one has lost 90% of its professional soldiers ("lifers" in US jargon). It is now filled with soldiers with 30 days or less training. Its officer corps depleted to a frction of the pre-war level. Never well-trained in manuever war or combined arms, this army uses clumsy tactics with little or no situational awareness. Vehicle drivers run over their own troops or into their own minefields. This army's generals order small unit attacks over and over again on the same avenues of approach that were dominated by the enemy the day before.
This second Russian army has blown through a massive amount of its first-line equipment. Older T62s from decades ago are seen in its formations and loss columns, because the first line T80/T72 modern versions are becoming scarce. This army's air defesne has proven far less capable than its published specifcations and has been pciked apart by droens and anti-radiation missiles. Self-propelled artillery seen in vast numbers on paper before the invasion are now repalced with ancvient D30 towed guins, vulnerable to counter-battery fire and drones.
The second army is the real one. The first army is the myth that Putin may still nourish, but - more importantly- the delusion that drives Western media to claim the war is a "stalemate" or that Russia can fight a long-war as it grows "stronger" deploying non-existent modern equipment and trained troops. The first zdrmy only appears in RedSquare films. The second one shows up in daily clips from the battlefield. THese clips seldom reported or published in Westgern popular media.
The same media - ignorant of the battlefield reality- dutifully reports the lines on the map and concludes there is a stalemate. It feeds a narrative that more "resistance is futile" (Russians are the Borg).
The scenario for the first army described is that Russia will never give up its occupied territories without a fight to the bitter end. The second army has lost effective control of Sevastapol and is losing its land bridge to Crimea due to long-range artillery fire and partisan warfare. In this real world scenario, Russia has lost much of its basic war objectives and is relying entirely on a political effort to break Western will to supply Ukraine.
The Russian losses, verified by third-parties, in the real world are staggering and accelrating. These have consumed the best Russian equipment and their best troops.
The comments below have links to multiple sources and information describing this "second Russian army" - the real one. It is clear that Russia's only hope is to break Western will, which cannot be allowed to happen. Ukraine does not need a piece of paper that crates "peace" (they alreayd got one of those in Budapest). Ukraine just needs ammo, as Presdient Zellensky famously said. #RussiaLosingBadly
#UkraineMustWinImage
Read 12 tweets
Randy Mott Profile picture
Dec 6, 2023
Why are Republicans holding out for border securty before agreeing to fund Ukraine? This post will not try to justify that position, but will explain it.
1. GOP members of Congress have voted by wide margins for Ukraine aid in all "stand alone" votes.
thehill.com/policy/defense…
2. Republican chairmen and ranking members of the key committees have urged faster and more effective aid as well as a clear policy goal of Ukraine winning.
foxnews.com/politics/inter…
3. On the other hand, even with majorities in the past, they have not done enough to secure the border. Since President Biden entered the White House approximately 9.5 million migrants have illegally entered the United States.
Read 16 tweets
Randy Mott Profile picture
Sep 1, 2023
The DESCENT of Heritage Foundation To Become Russian Propaganda

Founded in the Reagan era, Heritage Foundation has been a major voice for his foreign policy and defense principles. This continued in the Ukraine war, until it changed dramatically./1
“Timidity, fear, & hesitancy incentivize aggression and worsen the consequences of war……half measures and tepid, delayed assistance lengthen the duration of conflict, increase the amount of destruction, add to suffering, & make war harder to end.” HF website, March 15, 2023./2 Image
Heritage Foundation, website, February 14, 2023:/3 Image
Read 25 tweets
Randy Mott Profile picture
Aug 26, 2023
How the Heritage Foundation became a pro-Russian force.

You may have seen their TV ad that supports cutting off US aid to Ukraine, a major objective of Putin and the only possible way Russia can even get a "draw" out of the war. So let's start with how phony the ad is./1
The aid starts the full 7 yr authorization figure for Ukraine to create a big number that is makes absurd comparisons to Hawaii initital FEMA aid. The annual number is small & declining each yr. It is mostly spent in US, creating jobs to replace & update the donated eqpt./2
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Heritage shifted to a claim that the aid is not accounted for. A blatant lie which plays on low information voters' fears and bias. Totally crap and Heritage must know it!/3
Read 25 tweets
Randy Mott Profile picture
Aug 24, 2023
Colonel Douglas MacGregor: spreading lies on social media for people too lazy or biased to check.
He appears everywhere especially since his Tucker Carlson appearance. Everyone should know some facts before they get too excited about what he says./1
@DouglasMacGregor
His casualty numbers come straight from the Kremlin. They have been debunked by all NATO intelligence services. If his numbers were accurate, Ukrainians would not be so dedicated to continue fighting./2 Image
Here is the major effort by third-parties to verify losses on both sides ion the war. It is quite different that MacGregor's Kremlin nonsense./3
lookerstudio.google.com/reporting/dfbc…
Read 8 tweets
Randy Mott Profile picture
Aug 23, 2023
Russia is Losing Badly Part 2
Once again let's look at reliable information that Ukraine is winning. Russian losses have now significantly affected their combat effectiveness. Without an artillery advantge, depleted low-morale units are trying to plug holes in the line.
Russia's defense of Crimea will come down the last important campaign. One critical part will be decided by whether Russia's air defense will hold up. That looks unlikely, since Ukraoine just took out the most modern Russian system, the S400:/1
In another recent clip, Ukraine took out what may be a Panstir air defense system. The operator quickly runs for it when an anti-radiaition missile locks on. Turning off the radar after the lock-on does not stop the missile. /2
Read 16 tweets

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