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Trent Telenko Profile picture
@TrentTelenko
Sep 13 • 7 tweets • 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Ukrainian PSU Commander, Lieutenant General Mykola Oleschuk has thanked Ukrainian pilots for their excellent combat work in #Sevastopol attack.

I think this confirms the use of _some_ Storm Shadow/SCALP in the #Sevastopol attack.

#Sevastopol attack🧵
1/
 ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/376…
Image
The fact Storm Shadow/SCALP were used at #Sevastopol does not preclude other missiles were used as well.

Ground attack versions of the Neptune anti-ship cruise missile may also have been involved in a multi-axis attack to split Russian air defenses.

3/
There is also the possibility of a Ukrainian ground attack 5V28 missile - adapted from the S-200 SAM system - was involved as well.

4/
Orange fireballs could be either kerosene in a cruise missile tank, or hypergolic fuel in a 5V28. 🤷‍♂️

5/
Various Russian cell phone sound tracks have fast jet sounds around the explosions that could be anything from a Storm Shadow to a Neptune, to a 5V28 missile.

6/
I suspect it will be some months before the exact attack parameters for the #Sevastopol strike will be released by Ukraine.

7/7 End
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More from @TrentTelenko

Trent Telenko Profile picture
Sep 13
As is usual for @sambendett, he has a crackerjack translation thread of how the Russians view drone warfare.

This one is a description of how drones hunted an AFU Bradley Fighting Vehicle and the backwardness of Western mechanized fighting doctrine in the age of armed drones.
1/
And, indeed, that is an accurate assessment.

Consider the tens of thousands of DJI and other Chinese commercial drones have been purchased and turned into weapons in the last 18 months.

The US Military has bought zero such drones.
2/
In fact, the US military can't buy a Chinese drone for anyone for any reason.

Not for military training.

Not for Ukraine.

Zip, Zero, no drones for you, you or them.🤡

3/
 theverge.com/2021/6/1/22463…
Read 7 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Sep 10
This is a useful video clip with which to compare a GMLRS M30A1 tungsten pellet round performance in terms of lethality and area of coverage to a 155mm cluster munition round.

The Grad rocket truck was killed and the crew ran away from a M30A1 AW tungsten pellet round.

1/
Now look at the area of effect of a much smaller 155mm cluster munition shell in this thermal image video.

See the much larger area of effect the cluster munition shell massing about 1/2 what a 200-pound GMLRS-AW high-explosive warhead does.

2/
A GMLRS with 400(+) DPICM grenades, compared to the 64 of a 155mm shell, would have had far superior weapons effects and none of the Russian soldiers you saw running away from a GMLRS M30A1 AW tungsten ball munition would have survived to kill more Ukrainians.

3/
Image
Image
Read 12 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Sep 9
There is an on-going, extensive and systemic fuel distribution problem in Russia.

I touched on an aspect of it in an earlier thread, the substitution of gasoline powered cars for tactical and semi trucks moving supplies to Mariupol.

Russia's fuel distribution crisis🧵

1/
There are reports of gasoline shortages in Crimea.

2/
30 out of 61 Gazprom stations at Rostov-on-the Don are without fuel.👀

H/T @RayMindMusic

3/
Read 22 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Sep 7
The inability of the Biden Administration to pull in the scrap process M2 Bradley fighting vehicles and armored HMMWV from scrap contractors outside Red River Army Depot in Texas is just🤯

1/8
The 5th Amendment of the US Constitution has the takings clause which empowers "Eminent domain".

Eminent domain in the United States refers to the power of a state or the federal government to take private property for public use while requiring just compensation to be

2/8
...given to the original owner.

Because of all the requirements to demilitarize US Army armored combat vehicles. Bradley's, M113's and armored HMMWV are sold for a token one dollar each to demilitarization contractors.

3/8
 en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eminent_d…
Read 9 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Sep 7
I've found that SIPRI and IISS are often dubious on Russian equipment numbers - sometimes very accurate, sometimes utter bilge water.

It is nice to see others confirming my impressions on this uneven performance regarding Russian tank numbers.

Russian infowar 🧵
1/5
A lot of 'data sites' are cherry picking the problematic SIPRI and IISS data that make Russia look far stronger than it really is.

This seems downstream of extensive Russian Reflexive Control inforwar efforts.

2/5
 statista.com/statistics/129…
For the latest on how Russian infowar works, please see this recent thread of mine that includes links to both of Timothy Thomas excellent 2004 and 2019 papers on how Russian "Reflexive Control" works in the American/Western information spaces.

3/5
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Read 6 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Sep 6
Oh my goodness, this:

"...many supplies are transported by car",

has a huge numbers of implications for Russian logistics.🤯

Russian De-motorization, Arriving🧵
1/
Civilian cars are very poor load carriers for the fuel used.

Yes, Russia is a petro-state, but you still have to move the gasoline, not diesel, to run the cars.

Russia has to be short of something to use cars in lieu of tactical or semi-tractor trailers to Mariupol.

2/
We have been seeing Russian Ural "Scooby vans," or "Loafs" as some call them, for over a year in the tactical supply distribution role.

Semi-tractor trailers have been used statically & operationally for almost as long.


3/
Read 6 tweets

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