What caused the Baby Boom? To fix today's low birth rates, it helps to know how falling fertility was turned around once before.
Economic growth helped. But it turns out there a cultural closeness between men and women unlike anything before or since! A🧵, please share, follow!
A widely read article explained how new appliances, medical progress and more housing all supported family formation.
But this can't be the whole story, because usually as people are better off, fertility goes down.
There was something special in the air at the time. (2/9)
World War II saw young men involved in the war effort at incredibly high rates. In the US, 25% of men and close to 50% of men ages 18-30 served in the military and a further 25% were employed in war work. Other countries had similar or higher rates of deployment. (3/9)
Young men were seen by young women in a glowing light, both during the war and after returning home. Young men also matured quickly. What followed was an era of warm feelings between men and women across society, that infected a generation. (4/9)
In those days, love meant marriage. And so people married more often and earlier than ever before. In the US, women married at a median age ~20 and 94% of men and women married by age 40!
It turns out that lots of marriages at early ages are the key to high fertility. (5/9)
Economic tailwinds helped. But it takes culture to truly explain how births soared in so many different countries around the same time. (Chart from @WorksInProgMag.) (6/9)
If more and younger marriages gave us the Baby Boom, are they an answer for today? Yes, and here is important thread on that! (7/9)
You can get a sense of the very positive atmosphere that existed then between men and women by watching clips of couples from that era.
Here is a couple who married in 1941 and served in the war, talking about love after their 77th anniversary. (8/9)
If you enjoyed or learned something from this thread on the causes of the Baby Boom, and lessons for today, please repost. Also follow and spread the word about this account, which is dedicated to solutions to our fertility crisis. (9/9)
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HOW ONE MAN REVIVED A NATION
The population pyramid of Kazakhstan is unlike any other in the world. Birthrate decline was stopped and reversed, even as the country grew rich.
Nursultan Nazarbayev led 🇰🇿 for 27 years from its founding in 1991 and got it to grow again! 🧵!
Kazakhstan's population pyramid inverted in the mid 1980s as the number of births declined sharply and fertility fell below replacement in the 1990s.
But then births sharply recovered and Kazakhstan experienced a baby boom lasting almost 30 years even as it's GDP grew 15x! 2/7
The father of his country, Nazarbayev was incredibly popular, with an approval rate of around 90% through most of his long presidency.
On December 12, 1995, Nazarbayev introduced the Altyn Alka and Kumis Alka awards for mothers of many children. A pronatal culture was forged. 3/
A new map shows the last time each country in Europe reached replacement fertility.
Most western European countries, including the UK, France, Germany and Italy haven't had replacement fertility in more than 50 years.
This is the main reason for Europe's stagnation. 🧵.
This map shows the sobering fact that once a country falls below replacement, it almost never bounces back.
Eastern Europe did not fall below replacement until the 1980s but has had exceptionally low fertility over the past 25 years. 2/4
The Americas have had healthy fertility until much more recently. The United States had replacement fertility as recently as 2007 and low birthrates are a recent problem in most of the hemisphere.
That is a big part of why the Americas have outperformed Europe economically. 3/4
A recent study found that giving men a pay raise led them to have more children, while giving women a pay raise led them to have fewer children. 🧵.
For women, the effect of a pay raise was significantly reduced future fertility. A pay increase at 25 was associated with a large decrease in fertility at age 30, regardless of the skill level.
For men, a pay increase was associated with persistently higher fertility. 2/4
Why? The authors argue that "the substitution effect between children and labor supply is dominating for women while the income effect is dominating for men."
Since childcare falls more on women, the competition between work and family is greater for women than for men. 3/4