More Births Profile picture
Sep 13, 2023 9 tweets 5 min read Read on X
What caused the Baby Boom? To fix today's low birth rates, it helps to know how falling fertility was turned around once before.
Economic growth helped. But it turns out there a cultural closeness between men and women unlike anything before or since! A🧵, please share, follow!


Image
Image
Image
Image
A widely read article explained how new appliances, medical progress and more housing all supported family formation.
But this can't be the whole story, because usually as people are better off, fertility goes down.
There was something special in the air at the time. (2/9)
Image
Image
World War II saw young men involved in the war effort at incredibly high rates. In the US, 25% of men and close to 50% of men ages 18-30 served in the military and a further 25% were employed in war work. Other countries had similar or higher rates of deployment. (3/9) Image
Young men were seen by young women in a glowing light, both during the war and after returning home. Young men also matured quickly. What followed was an era of warm feelings between men and women across society, that infected a generation. (4/9) Image
In those days, love meant marriage. And so people married more often and earlier than ever before. In the US, women married at a median age ~20 and 94% of men and women married by age 40!
It turns out that lots of marriages at early ages are the key to high fertility. (5/9)

Image
Image
Image
Economic tailwinds helped. But it takes culture to truly explain how births soared in so many different countries around the same time. (Chart from @WorksInProgMag.) (6/9) Image
If more and younger marriages gave us the Baby Boom, are they an answer for today? Yes, and here is important thread on that! (7/9)
You can get a sense of the very positive atmosphere that existed then between men and women by watching clips of couples from that era.
Here is a couple who married in 1941 and served in the war, talking about love after their 77th anniversary. (8/9)
If you enjoyed or learned something from this thread on the causes of the Baby Boom, and lessons for today, please repost. Also follow and spread the word about this account, which is dedicated to solutions to our fertility crisis. (9/9) Image

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with More Births

More Births Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @MoreBirths

Jun 15
On this Father's Day, let's think of young guys and the future.

How can young men, most of whom really want children one day, boost their odds of achieving fatherhood?
🧵!Image
Perhaps the first thing for young men to focus on is gaining income and building a career.
There is a strong positive relationship between a man's income and the number of children he will have.
This was true in the past and it is still true today, all over the world. 2/9 Image
Image
Part of this of course is that higher earning men are more attractive to women.

But even for among married men, studies find that when men earn more, they tend to have more children.

This isn't just some relic of the past. It is even more true for younger men! 3/9 Image
Image
Image
Image
Read 9 tweets
Jun 3
UPenn economist @JesusFerna7026 just gave an important talk called The Demographic Future of Humanity.
Key points:
(1) Birth data is much worse than the UN reports,
(2) UN projections are absurdly rosy,
(3) Economic growth will be low, and
(4) Immigration cannot fix this.
🧵
First, Fernández-Villaverde notes that in country after country, the UN's birth figures are far higher than what those countries officially report.

For example, the Colombian government reports births 25% lower than what the UN claims. In Egypt and Türkiye, the gap is ~12%. 2/8 Image
Image
Image
On top bad birth data, the UN's population projections are absurdly optimistic. In most countries birthrates have been dropping like a rock. Yet the UN projects birthrates will bounce right back up.
There is no evidence for this. The causes of low birthrates haven't reversed. 3/8 Image
Image
Image
Image
Read 8 tweets
Jun 1
Resisting Birthrate Decline Through Culture: How one part of Japan bucks the trend
Japan's woes are well known, its population long in decline, it's economy stagnating.
Yet one prefecture continues to grow, not through policy but through a pronatal culture.
🧵, please share!Image
Image
Image
For more than forty years, Okinawa has had far higher fertility than any other prefecture (Stone, 2024).

But Okinawa's fertility used to be lower than the 🇯🇵 average (map by @yz7sha).

How did Okinawa manage to develop a pronatal culture, so different from the rest of Japan? 2/9 Image
Image
The story starts after World War II.

Unlike the United States or most countries that participated in the war, Japan never had a postwar baby boom, and a 2016 paper explains why.

Facing defeat and a loss of resources, Japan embarked on a crash program of population control. 3/9 Image
Image
Image
Read 9 tweets
Apr 27
A wonderful paper by Spears et al. showed that population reduction would have almost no impact on climate change.
Why? The main reason is that a baby born today will emit much less carbon than someone born a generation ago, and their children will emit even less carbon. 🧵 Image
Image
Image
Most previous forecasts of how population would impact climate assumed that carbon emissions would continue at the same rate indefinitely.
But per-capita carbon consumption has been falling sharply and will fall even faster in the future as renewable energy takes over. 2/4 Image
Image
Image
Meanwhile, because of population momentum, total population takes decades to change meaningfully.

By the time depopulation kicks in, per capita carbon emissions will be much lower than they are today, and so the climate impacts of population by then will be much lower. 3/4 Image
Image
Image
Read 4 tweets
Feb 23
Knowing birthrates are driven by a stack of factors lets us figure out what is happening in each country and what its 👶 bottlenecks are.
Things like beliefs about children, marriage, housing conditions, religiosity, work culture and more all have a big impact.
🧵, please share! Image
In Spain (TFR 1.12), big hurdles include a huge fraction of young people living with their parents (driven by relatively poor employment for young people), the high share of housing that is small apartments, and declining faith among the young. 2/13
Poland (TFR 1.11) has a culture that is obsessive about work, with the longest work hours in Europe. After the fall of Communism, almost 70% of young Poles regularly practiced religion; today, less than 25% do. Housing is small and crowded. 3/13
Read 13 tweets
Feb 16
Fertile No More!
For more than a hundred years, Ireland was both the most religious and the most fertile country in Europe.
But in recent years, Ireland experienced rapid secularization, and its fertility fell to just 1.47 in 2024.
What happened to 🇮🇪, and what comes next?
🧵!Image
Image
Image
First, a bit of history.
By the 1800s, Ireland had become almost entirely reliant on just one crop. Potato blight struck in 1845, and soon famine and mass migration cut the Irish population from 8 million down to 4. Ireland's population is still well below its 1845 peak. 2/7 Image
Image
Ireland gained independence in 1921, and Catholicism was central to Irish identity, partly in defiance of protestant England.
For most of the 20th century, 🇮🇪 was deeply religious, with church attendance above 90%.
The Irish idealized large families, and fertility was high! 3/7 Image
Image
Image
Image
Read 7 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(