More Births Profile picture
Sep 13, 2023 9 tweets 5 min read Read on X
What caused the Baby Boom? To fix today's low birth rates, it helps to know how falling fertility was turned around once before.
Economic growth helped. But it turns out there a cultural closeness between men and women unlike anything before or since! A🧵, please share, follow!


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A widely read article explained how new appliances, medical progress and more housing all supported family formation.
But this can't be the whole story, because usually as people are better off, fertility goes down.
There was something special in the air at the time. (2/9)
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World War II saw young men involved in the war effort at incredibly high rates. In the US, 25% of men and close to 50% of men ages 18-30 served in the military and a further 25% were employed in war work. Other countries had similar or higher rates of deployment. (3/9) Image
Young men were seen by young women in a glowing light, both during the war and after returning home. Young men also matured quickly. What followed was an era of warm feelings between men and women across society, that infected a generation. (4/9) Image
In those days, love meant marriage. And so people married more often and earlier than ever before. In the US, women married at a median age ~20 and 94% of men and women married by age 40!
It turns out that lots of marriages at early ages are the key to high fertility. (5/9)

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Economic tailwinds helped. But it takes culture to truly explain how births soared in so many different countries around the same time. (Chart from @WorksInProgMag.) (6/9) Image
If more and younger marriages gave us the Baby Boom, are they an answer for today? Yes, and here is important thread on that! (7/9)
You can get a sense of the very positive atmosphere that existed then between men and women by watching clips of couples from that era.
Here is a couple who married in 1941 and served in the war, talking about love after their 77th anniversary. (8/9)
If you enjoyed or learned something from this thread on the causes of the Baby Boom, and lessons for today, please repost. Also follow and spread the word about this account, which is dedicated to solutions to our fertility crisis. (9/9) Image

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More from @MoreBirths

Feb 23
Knowing birthrates are driven by a stack of factors lets us figure out what is happening in each country and what its 👶 bottlenecks are.
Things like beliefs about children, marriage, housing conditions, religiosity, work culture and more all have a big impact.
🧵, please share! Image
In Spain (TFR 1.12), big hurdles include a huge fraction of young people living with their parents (driven by relatively poor employment for young people), the high share of housing that is small apartments, and declining faith among the young. 2/13
Poland (TFR 1.11) has a culture that is obsessive about work, with the longest work hours in Europe. After the fall of Communism, almost 70% of young Poles regularly practiced religion; today, less than 25% do. Housing is small and crowded. 3/13
Read 13 tweets
Feb 16
Fertile No More!
For more than a hundred years, Ireland was both the most religious and the most fertile country in Europe.
But in recent years, Ireland experienced rapid secularization, and its fertility fell to just 1.47 in 2024.
What happened to 🇮🇪, and what comes next?
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First, a bit of history.
By the 1800s, Ireland had become almost entirely reliant on just one crop. Potato blight struck in 1845, and soon famine and mass migration cut the Irish population from 8 million down to 4. Ireland's population is still well below its 1845 peak. 2/7 Image
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Ireland gained independence in 1921, and Catholicism was central to Irish identity, partly in defiance of protestant England.
For most of the 20th century, 🇮🇪 was deeply religious, with church attendance above 90%.
The Irish idealized large families, and fertility was high! 3/7 Image
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Read 7 tweets
Feb 9
Getting old without ever getting rich
Thailand, with a TFR of just 0.95 in 2024, never even had a chance to get rich before its birthrate collapsed.
A look at how over-zealous family planning combined with cultural factors to put 🇹🇭 on a demographic downward spiral.
New 🧵!Image
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Unlike its neighbors Korea and Taiwan, Thailand with a per-capita GDP of just $7000 never got to get rich before facing ultra-low birthrates.
For Thailand, the biggest cause was family planning run amok.
(Below, a wedding dress in Thailand made of entirely of condoms!) 2/9 Image
The father of Thai birth control is Mechai Viravaidya, an enthusiastic family planner who led round after round of family planning efforts. As its birthrates plunged, Thailand was lauded as a huge success.

But then these efforts blew far past the mark. When Thailand hosted the International Conference on Family Planning in 2022, its fertility was already down to 1.01 and still dropping fast. With January 2025 data already reported, Thai births were down another 8.4% from January 2024.

Here is Viravaidya posing proudly with a tree made out of... Guess what? 3/9Image
Read 9 tweets
Jan 24
The fastest fertility collapse in the world
In 2024 Chile recorded a fertility rate of just 0.88 births per woman, a drop of 23% in a year and 51% since 2015. No country has seen fertility fall as fast.
A look at how social changes have overwhelmed 🇨🇱 and threaten its future.
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In recent years, Chile has been wracked with protest. In 2018, there were some 151 feminist protests across the country.
Then from 2019 to 2021, these mixed with large youth-led anti-establishment protests, which turned violent and often resulted in brutal police responses. 2/7 Image
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In the aftermath of the protests and the subsequent crackdown, many women have sworn off of childbearing, and anti-natal beliefs have taken hold.
This has analogues to South Korea's gender tension and its notorious 4B movement (women rejecting dating, sex, marriage & kids). 3/7 Image
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Read 7 tweets
Jan 8
South Dakota has the highest fertility of any US state and is the only state near replacement fertility.
Why is the birthrate so high in South Dakota and what lessons are there for the rest of America and the world?
🧵, please share! Image
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First is religiosity. Some 50% of South Dakotans rate religion as very important in their lives, well above the US average of around 37%.
Higher religiosity is associated with higher fertility both in the US and worldwide. 2/10 Image
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Second is social values. South Dakota is one of the most conservative states in America, and conservatism is strongly associated with higher fertility in the US, both for states and at the county level. 3/10 Image
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Read 10 tweets
Dec 30, 2024
How many people really understand the age-fertility curve?
A groundbreaking 2023 paper by Geruso et al. showed that fecundability (the ability of a woman to get pregnant) peaks at age 20 and has already dropped by 2/3 by age 33. This is far younger than almost anyone knew. 1/4Image
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The most important way to solve the fertility crisis is to educate young people on how crucial it is to get started early on family. Achieving financial and career success may take a long time, but family can't wait very long! 2/4
Over the past 20 years, childbearing has started later and later, but it winds down at the same ages as ever. As a result, the effective window for having kids is much smaller and is very easy to miss, especially when life circumstances don't align. 3/4
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Read 4 tweets

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