More Births Profile picture
Sep 13, 2023 9 tweets 5 min read Read on X
What caused the Baby Boom? To fix today's low birth rates, it helps to know how falling fertility was turned around once before.
Economic growth helped. But it turns out there a cultural closeness between men and women unlike anything before or since! A🧵, please share, follow!


Image
Image
Image
Image
A widely read article explained how new appliances, medical progress and more housing all supported family formation.
But this can't be the whole story, because usually as people are better off, fertility goes down.
There was something special in the air at the time. (2/9)
Image
Image
World War II saw young men involved in the war effort at incredibly high rates. In the US, 25% of men and close to 50% of men ages 18-30 served in the military and a further 25% were employed in war work. Other countries had similar or higher rates of deployment. (3/9) Image
Young men were seen by young women in a glowing light, both during the war and after returning home. Young men also matured quickly. What followed was an era of warm feelings between men and women across society, that infected a generation. (4/9) Image
In those days, love meant marriage. And so people married more often and earlier than ever before. In the US, women married at a median age ~20 and 94% of men and women married by age 40!
It turns out that lots of marriages at early ages are the key to high fertility. (5/9)

Image
Image
Image
Economic tailwinds helped. But it takes culture to truly explain how births soared in so many different countries around the same time. (Chart from @WorksInProgMag.) (6/9) Image
If more and younger marriages gave us the Baby Boom, are they an answer for today? Yes, and here is important thread on that! (7/9)
You can get a sense of the very positive atmosphere that existed then between men and women by watching clips of couples from that era.
Here is a couple who married in 1941 and served in the war, talking about love after their 77th anniversary. (8/9)
If you enjoyed or learned something from this thread on the causes of the Baby Boom, and lessons for today, please repost. Also follow and spread the word about this account, which is dedicated to solutions to our fertility crisis. (9/9) Image

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with More Births

More Births Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @MoreBirths

Apr 24
A paper published today argues that women's liberation led to collapsing fertility around the world.

Using US data, the authors show 58% of women's sexual relationships are with the most promiscuous 10% of men.

But most of these relationships are short term and childless. 🧵. Image
Image
Image
Women's freedom, widely viewed as positive around the world, is strongly associated with lower fertility, the authors find (r=.81).

Many forces have led women to pursue short-term rather than long-term mating strategies. But most of these partnerships don't lead to kids. 2/5 Image
Image
In US data over the past decade, a tenth of men accounted for 60% of female sexual partnerships.

The obvious problem is that most women will not be able to have a long-term relationship with these few men and so end up single. 3/5 Image
Image
Read 6 tweets
Apr 18
HOW ONE MAN REVIVED A NATION
The population pyramid of Kazakhstan is unlike any other in the world. Birthrate decline was stopped and reversed, even as the country grew rich.

Nursultan Nazarbayev led 🇰🇿 for 27 years from its founding in 1991 and got it to grow again! 🧵! Image
Image
Image
Kazakhstan's population pyramid inverted in the mid 1980s as the number of births declined sharply and fertility fell below replacement in the 1990s.

But then births sharply recovered and Kazakhstan experienced a baby boom lasting almost 30 years even as it's GDP grew 15x! 2/7 Image
Image
The father of his country, Nazarbayev was incredibly popular, with an approval rate of around 90% through most of his long presidency.

On December 12, 1995, Nazarbayev introduced the Altyn Alka and Kumis Alka awards for mothers of many children. A pronatal culture was forged. 3/ Image
Image
Read 7 tweets
Apr 3
A study in Sweden found that firstborn children tend to have more children of their own than those that came later in the birth order.

Why? It is likely because older siblings had exposure to babies growing up, while younger siblings did not. 🧵. Image
Image
Image
The large study of siblings (N = 1.5 million) found firstborns tend to have significantly more children than those that came later.

The effect is especially strong for women. When girls have a chance to help with little ones, they have much stronger family desires later on.
2/4 Image
What about number of siblings? For both women and men, having more siblings tends to increase the number of children people have.

And once again, the effect is strongest for elder siblings, who got more chances to practice parenting. 3/4 Image
Image
Read 4 tweets
Mar 4
A new map shows the last time each country in Europe reached replacement fertility.

Most western European countries, including the UK, France, Germany and Italy haven't had replacement fertility in more than 50 years.

This is the main reason for Europe's stagnation. 🧵. Image
This map shows the sobering fact that once a country falls below replacement, it almost never bounces back.

Eastern Europe did not fall below replacement until the 1980s but has had exceptionally low fertility over the past 25 years. 2/4 Image
Image
The Americas have had healthy fertility until much more recently. The United States had replacement fertility as recently as 2007 and low birthrates are a recent problem in most of the hemisphere.

That is a big part of why the Americas have outperformed Europe economically. 3/4 Image
Read 4 tweets
Feb 27
A big fail in the New York Times today with the claim that "31 is the new 21."

The Times leads readers to believe today's young women will make up lost fertility in their 30s and 40s.

But all evidence indicates they will not. 🧵. Image
Image
First, the Times is ignorant of what recent research shows about age and infertility.

A big 2023 study of three million women by Geruso, Spears and LoPalo found that the ability to get pregnant is much lower in the 30s than the 20s.

So unfortunately, 31 is not the new 21. 2/4 Image
Image
Image
Second, the fertility collapse tracks plunging rates of partnering in the US and elsewhere in the world.

There is no reason to expect birthrates to miraculously recover when people are single at higher rates than ever before.
(Chart by @jburnmurdoch.) Image
Read 4 tweets
Feb 24
A recent study found that giving men a pay raise led them to have more children, while giving women a pay raise led them to have fewer children. 🧵. Image
Image
For women, the effect of a pay raise was significantly reduced future fertility. A pay increase at 25 was associated with a large decrease in fertility at age 30, regardless of the skill level.

For men, a pay increase was associated with persistently higher fertility. 2/4 Image
Why? The authors argue that "the substitution effect between children and labor supply is dominating for women while the income effect is dominating for men."

Since childcare falls more on women, the competition between work and family is greater for women than for men. 3/4 Image
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(