What caused the Baby Boom? To fix today's low birth rates, it helps to know how falling fertility was turned around once before.
Economic growth helped. But it turns out there a cultural closeness between men and women unlike anything before or since! A🧵, please share, follow!
A widely read article explained how new appliances, medical progress and more housing all supported family formation.
But this can't be the whole story, because usually as people are better off, fertility goes down.
There was something special in the air at the time. (2/9)
World War II saw young men involved in the war effort at incredibly high rates. In the US, 25% of men and close to 50% of men ages 18-30 served in the military and a further 25% were employed in war work. Other countries had similar or higher rates of deployment. (3/9)
Young men were seen by young women in a glowing light, both during the war and after returning home. Young men also matured quickly. What followed was an era of warm feelings between men and women across society, that infected a generation. (4/9)
In those days, love meant marriage. And so people married more often and earlier than ever before. In the US, women married at a median age ~20 and 94% of men and women married by age 40!
It turns out that lots of marriages at early ages are the key to high fertility. (5/9)
Economic tailwinds helped. But it takes culture to truly explain how births soared in so many different countries around the same time. (Chart from @WorksInProgMag.) (6/9)
If more and younger marriages gave us the Baby Boom, are they an answer for today? Yes, and here is important thread on that! (7/9)
You can get a sense of the very positive atmosphere that existed then between men and women by watching clips of couples from that era.
Here is a couple who married in 1941 and served in the war, talking about love after their 77th anniversary. (8/9)
If you enjoyed or learned something from this thread on the causes of the Baby Boom, and lessons for today, please repost. Also follow and spread the word about this account, which is dedicated to solutions to our fertility crisis. (9/9)
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A new map shows the last time each country in Europe reached replacement fertility.
Most western European countries, including the UK, France, Germany and Italy haven't had replacement fertility in more than 50 years.
This is the main reason for Europe's stagnation. 🧵.
This map shows the sobering fact that once a country falls below replacement, it almost never bounces back.
Eastern Europe did not fall below replacement until the 1980s but has had exceptionally low fertility over the past 25 years. 2/4
The Americas have had healthy fertility until much more recently. The United States had replacement fertility as recently as 2007 and low birthrates are a recent problem in most of the hemisphere.
That is a big part of why the Americas have outperformed Europe economically. 3/4
A recent study found that giving men a pay raise led them to have more children, while giving women a pay raise led them to have fewer children. 🧵.
For women, the effect of a pay raise was significantly reduced future fertility. A pay increase at 25 was associated with a large decrease in fertility at age 30, regardless of the skill level.
For men, a pay increase was associated with persistently higher fertility. 2/4
Why? The authors argue that "the substitution effect between children and labor supply is dominating for women while the income effect is dominating for men."
Since childcare falls more on women, the competition between work and family is greater for women than for men. 3/4
A newly published paper found pronatal policies only worked when supported by culture.
"Maternity benefits increased fertility only among women who grew up in religious families" in the Baltics.
This could explain why many pronatal policies have not boosted fertility more. 🧵.
In 1982, there was a big expansion in child benefits in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania including maternity leave wage benefits, a cash payment for birth and 18 months of job protection.
Five East European countries with comparable economic systems did not get the benefits. 2/5
The study found, "among women who grew up in religious households, fertility went up by a statistically significant 5.7 percentage points representing a 46.3% increase."
Meanwhile, there was "no change in fertility among women who did not grow up in religious households." 3/5
A new study finds that work-from-home raises fertility more than any conventional family policy.
"Estimated lifetime fertility is greater by 0.32 children per woman when both partners WFH one or more days per week as compared to the case where neither does." 🧵.
In this chart, a large effect is clearly seen, with fertility higher when either partner has some work-from-home and highest when both do.
The authors say this is not due to selection because fertility rose among those that unexpectedly got WFH, compared to those that didn't.
Raising the work-from-home share of either partner by seven percent raised the one-year fertility by a similar amount, which means that families that have WFH have considerably higher fertility on average.
On this Christmas, we can reflect how Christianity was able to grow out of the ashes of collapsing Rome.
Scott Alexander reviews Rodney Stark's The Rise of Christianity and describes how the new faith won out by valuing women and children.
Important 🧵!
Much like our world today, Pagan Rome faced terrible birthrates.
Sex-selective infanticide was the norm. Women were not valued and many men just wanted to stay single.
It got so bad that Roman General Macedonicus proposed forcing people to marry! 2/7
When schemes to make marriage mandatory failed, Augustus tried taxing the unmarried and childless.
Alexander writes, "Formal and informal social pressure eventually convinced most Roman men to take wives, but no amount of love or money could make them have children." 3/7