What caused the Baby Boom? To fix today's low birth rates, it helps to know how falling fertility was turned around once before.
Economic growth helped. But it turns out there a cultural closeness between men and women unlike anything before or since! A🧵, please share, follow!
A widely read article explained how new appliances, medical progress and more housing all supported family formation.
But this can't be the whole story, because usually as people are better off, fertility goes down.
There was something special in the air at the time. (2/9)
World War II saw young men involved in the war effort at incredibly high rates. In the US, 25% of men and close to 50% of men ages 18-30 served in the military and a further 25% were employed in war work. Other countries had similar or higher rates of deployment. (3/9)
Young men were seen by young women in a glowing light, both during the war and after returning home. Young men also matured quickly. What followed was an era of warm feelings between men and women across society, that infected a generation. (4/9)
In those days, love meant marriage. And so people married more often and earlier than ever before. In the US, women married at a median age ~20 and 94% of men and women married by age 40!
It turns out that lots of marriages at early ages are the key to high fertility. (5/9)
Economic tailwinds helped. But it takes culture to truly explain how births soared in so many different countries around the same time. (Chart from @WorksInProgMag.) (6/9)
If more and younger marriages gave us the Baby Boom, are they an answer for today? Yes, and here is important thread on that! (7/9)
You can get a sense of the very positive atmosphere that existed then between men and women by watching clips of couples from that era.
Here is a couple who married in 1941 and served in the war, talking about love after their 77th anniversary. (8/9)
If you enjoyed or learned something from this thread on the causes of the Baby Boom, and lessons for today, please repost. Also follow and spread the word about this account, which is dedicated to solutions to our fertility crisis. (9/9)
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It has gone unnoticed that the most infamous school shooting in US history, the Sandy Hook shooting, may have had its origin in far left, antinatalist ideology.
Adam Lanza's recordings, found in 2021, expressed strong interest in antinatalism as well as p*dophilia. 🧵.
Adam Lanza's YouTube channel "CulturalPhilistine" was not discovered until September of 2021, some 9 years after the shooting, after public interest had waned. At the time of the shootings, Lanza's motives were a mystery.
The YouTube channel contained only audio but matched recordings of Lanza's voice. The strongest evidence that the channel belonged to Lanza is that it includes long readings from a 35-page college application essay that Lanza had submitted on the topic of p*dophilia.
Lanza's first and fourth recordings were on the topic of antinatalism and "antinatal" appears 24 times in the transcripts.
"Life is suffering" appears in the title of another recording, and this is a key part of antinatal ideology. 2/6
In his recording "antinatalism at light speed" Lanza spoke of 'activist antinatalism' - just one year before he would kill 26 children and teachers at Sandy Hook elementary.
Lanza's recordings discuss not only antinatalism, but a more extreme online ideology called efi*ism. 3/6
One of the strongest predictors of fertility for countries is how many children most people consider to be ideal.
This shows that values around children drive birthrates strongly. We also see that actual fertility (1.48) is far below what people say they desire (2.36). 🧵
Notice how strongly fertility ideals predict actual fertility, with the ideal number of children predicting 64% of a country's TFR.
Why does the US have a higher birthrate than Europe even though family policies are much more generous in the EU? A stronger desire for kids. 2/5
This also gets to the root of why Israel, alone among developed countries, manages to have above replacement fertility.
In Israel, the average 18-44-year-old sees 4 as the ideal number of children to have, far more than in other advanced countries. Truly a pronatal culture. 3/5
Published today, an important paper proposes a framework dividing total fertility rate into two component parts:
TFR = Total Maternity Rate (TMR) x Children per Mother (CPM)
This lens shows that virtually all recent declines in fertility were due to increasing childlessness. 🧵
Demographer @StephenJShaw realized that these two components of TFR, the total maternity rate (or equivalently, the childless rate) and children per mother move quite independently of each other.
That means one gets much more information from looking at both parts together. 2/6
Unsurprisingly, both lower rates of motherhood and smaller family sizes are contributors to the crisis of low birthrates.
But both factors matter since the policies helping people reach parenthood may be very different from the ones supporting or encouraging larger families. 3/6
All of China has low birthrates, but northeastern China has the lowest fertility of any region in the world, lower than South Korea. Why?
It was in these regions that the one-child policy was most rigorously enforced, completely wiping out natalism from the culture. 🧵
China's One Child Policy is gone now, and since July 2021, all birth limits have been removed.
But while the OCP was in force, millions of pregnant Chinese women experienced the tragic brutality of forced abortion, which I explored in this thread (2/5):
But why did population control hit harder in the northeast than elsewhere in 🇨🇳?
First, NE China urbanized earlier and population controllers were more powerful in cities.
Second, most people in NE China worked for state-owned enterprises, putting them directly under the CCP. 3/5
Colombia recorded only 445,000 births in 2024, way below UN projections of 701,000 births, for an official fertility rate of just 1.06 births per woman, and just 0.84 in Bogotá. (The true rate may be a little higher with unregistered births.)
Why such a dramatic collapse? 2/10
The biggest cause is the disappearance of marriage.
The rate of marriage in Colombia plunged to just 1.4 per 1000 people in 2022 according to OECD statistics, lowest in the world. (The US which has also seen a big drop still has a marriage rate 4 times as high at 6.0.)
3/10
On this Father's Day, let's think of young guys and the future.
How can young men, most of whom really want children one day, boost their odds of achieving fatherhood?
🧵!
Perhaps the first thing for young men to focus on is gaining income and building a career.
There is a strong positive relationship between a man's income and the number of children he will have.
This was true in the past and it is still true today, all over the world. 2/9
Part of this of course is that higher earning men are more attractive to women.
But even for among married men, studies find that when men earn more, they tend to have more children.
This isn't just some relic of the past. It is even more true for younger men! 3/9