More Births Profile picture
Sep 13, 2023 9 tweets 5 min read Read on X
What caused the Baby Boom? To fix today's low birth rates, it helps to know how falling fertility was turned around once before.
Economic growth helped. But it turns out there a cultural closeness between men and women unlike anything before or since! A🧵, please share, follow!


Image
Image
Image
Image
A widely read article explained how new appliances, medical progress and more housing all supported family formation.
But this can't be the whole story, because usually as people are better off, fertility goes down.
There was something special in the air at the time. (2/9)
Image
Image
World War II saw young men involved in the war effort at incredibly high rates. In the US, 25% of men and close to 50% of men ages 18-30 served in the military and a further 25% were employed in war work. Other countries had similar or higher rates of deployment. (3/9) Image
Young men were seen by young women in a glowing light, both during the war and after returning home. Young men also matured quickly. What followed was an era of warm feelings between men and women across society, that infected a generation. (4/9) Image
In those days, love meant marriage. And so people married more often and earlier than ever before. In the US, women married at a median age ~20 and 94% of men and women married by age 40!
It turns out that lots of marriages at early ages are the key to high fertility. (5/9)

Image
Image
Image
Economic tailwinds helped. But it takes culture to truly explain how births soared in so many different countries around the same time. (Chart from @WorksInProgMag.) (6/9) Image
If more and younger marriages gave us the Baby Boom, are they an answer for today? Yes, and here is important thread on that! (7/9)
You can get a sense of the very positive atmosphere that existed then between men and women by watching clips of couples from that era.
Here is a couple who married in 1941 and served in the war, talking about love after their 77th anniversary. (8/9)
If you enjoyed or learned something from this thread on the causes of the Baby Boom, and lessons for today, please repost. Also follow and spread the word about this account, which is dedicated to solutions to our fertility crisis. (9/9) Image

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with More Births

More Births Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @MoreBirths

Jun 23
What is the impact of grandparents on fertility?

Three different recent studies found that having childcare help from grandparents leads people to have more children. 🧵. Image
Image
Image
A 2023 study of China looked at how grandparents impacted the odds of going for a 2nd child.

Those who had childcare help from grandparents for their first child had a dramatically higher chance of going for a second. 2/4 Image
Image
A 2022 study in Spain looked at how fertility intentions change depending on whether grandparents help with childcare.

Women specifically were much more likely to want more children if the grandparents were helping out. 3/4 Image
Image
Read 5 tweets
Jun 21
Today we celebrate all fathers!

But most of all, we should recognize younger fathers, who are trying harder and doing more to be there for their families than any generation that came before them.

🧵, please share! Image
Image
All over the world, dads are spending far more time on childcare than ever before. Dads in the US today spend 4.5 times as much of their day on childcare as their own fathers did a generation ago. 2/6

(Chart by the brilliant @AzizSunderji.) Image
It's easy to say that dads aren't doing their fair share.

But it isn't true! When it comes to everything, paid work, housework and childcare, Dads today spend even more time on average than moms, nearly 60 hours a week! 3/6

(HT @RichardvReeves and Institute for Boys and Men.) Image
Read 6 tweets
May 31
A just-published paper introduces a new metric: the ratio of births observed (Bo) to births needed (Bn) to make up for deaths.

When Bo/Bn is below 1, a population faces natural decline.

With this lens, the dire situation of Europe and East Asia is thrown into stark relief. 🧵. Image
Image
Most often we rely on TFR, births per woman of childbearing age. But that ignores the age structure of a population.

Japan is an old country with few women of childbearing age, and deaths far outnumber births.

India is a young country, and births still greatly exceed deaths. 2/ Image
East Asia has less than half of the births needed to make up for deaths each year, indicating rapid demographic collapse. Conditions have gotten much worse since 2000, as these countries went from young to old.

Southern and Eastern Europe aren't much better in this regard. 3/6 Image
Read 6 tweets
May 27
Turkey's astonishing fertility collapse
Turkey's president Erdoğan made it his mission to revive birthrates. Instead, Turkish fertility has fallen faster than almost anywhere on Earth to just 1.42 in 2025 (just 1.2 outside of Kurdistan).
What happened, and what can we learn? 🧵.Image
Image
By every measure, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has been a failure in the thing that mattered most to him, getting Turks to have more children.

Why? It doesn't help that Erdoğan is deeply unpopular with young people. 2/8
(Chart by @JesusFerna7026) Image
As demographer @lymanstoneky explains in a wonderful new article, the biggest direct cause of falling fertility is falling marriage.

When marriage falls, fertility plummets in a traditional country like Turkey where almost all childbearing is within wedlock. 3/8 Image
Read 8 tweets
May 22
India's new birth report just revealed a TFR of 1.88, a little below replacement.

But unlike most countries, 🇮🇳 does not have a crisis of low births. With its young population, India had 23 million births, 3x more than any other country.

A look at how India is different. 🧵! Image
Image
South Asia is the one region where marriage remains almost universal even as it has collapsed nearly everywhere else. Why? Arranged marriage.

In China, Korea and Japan, arranged marriage was common but became rare.

In India by contrast, arranged marriage remains the norm. 2/7 Image
Image
India's age profile for births tells a remarkable story. Indian births peak in the early 20s, and most women stop well before age 30.

India is a populous and crowded county, and so most Indian women simply choose to limit their fertility for that reason. 3/7 Image
Read 7 tweets
May 15
A shocking new study finds that the desire for children has collapsed among young people in China.

In the most recent data some 32% of 18–24-year-olds, and nearly half of young women, said they don't want any children at all. 🧵. Image
Image
Fertility desires have long been taken for granted. Even as fertility has dropped, the desire for children seemed strong.

If birthrates were too low, many argued it was only because of structural barriers to having children, like housing and childcare. 2/7 Image
But this study, which looked at five waves of the Chinese Social Survey, found that increasingly, young Chinese don't even want children.

Until the 2010s, fertility desire was nearly universal. But now a third of young people in China report "zero fertility desire"! 3/7 Image
Image
Read 8 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(