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Sep 15, 2023 17 tweets 5 min read Read on X
While global attention is primarily on the counter-offensive in the South, there has been noteworthy yet often unnoticed progress in the southernmost part of Bakhmut's defenses. In this thread, I will provide the latest information about Kurdyumivka and its significance.🧵Thread: Image
2/ Kurdyumivka, a small town situated to the south of Bakhmut, holds a tactical advantage due to its elevated position. It offers crucial control over vital roadways connecting Horlivka and Bakhmut, encompassing both highways and railway lines. Image
3/ As illustrated in this image, maintaining control over Kurdyumivka and the eastern heights affords the ability to establish effective fire control and disrupt the enemy's logistical route from Horlivka and Svitlodarsk to Bakhmut, which passes in close proximity to Kurdyumivka Image
4/ Kurdyumivka presents a formidable challenge as a target due to its elevated position in relation to advancing Ukrainian forces, as well as its separation by bodies of water, including this channel, with a restricted number of bridges available for crossing Image
5/ During June and July 2023, the 28th brigade exerted substantial pressure, forcing russian retreat across the channel and setting the stage for further advances towards Kurdyumivka. This time-lapse video documents the progress
6/ In a successful June operation, the 28th brigade's mechanized battalion destroyed the enemy battalion and captured fortified positions, bolstering security for the advancing northern sector forces. Image
7/ Upon seizing fortified positions, navigating minefields, and crossing a water channel, the 28th brigade faced formidable resistance from the 1428th Rgt, the 57th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Bde, and elements of the Akhmat-North Rgt and St. George Reconnaissance Assault Bde Image
8/ The area north of Kurdyumivka has transformed into a fierce battleground, with the russians heavily fortifying their defenses to halt any northern advances. The vivid imagery highlights the intense combat that unfolded, with every meter of land fiercely contested. Image
9/ The stark comparison between August and September reveals the extent of destruction in the area, which was liberated from the russians despite their numerical advantage and the support of Lancets, FPV drones, artillery, and Ka-52 helicopters providing cover. Image
10/ This brief video offers a general overview of the 28th's summer campaign, starting with the clearance of defensive lines along the eastern side of the channel, which forced elements from multiple brigades and regiments to retreat. It then secured a land route into Kurdyumivka
11/ The second phase involved a northern push, with support from neighboring brigades. This enabled the 28th to engage the enemy from both the northern and eastern flanks simultaneously, forcing the enemy to abandon their positions and retreat beyond the railroad to higher ground
12/ Lancets, as well as the Ka-52 helicopters, located around 105km from Kurdyumivka, pose a significant threat due to the absence of good AD cover. With a substantial supply of Vikhr AT-missiles at their disposal, these Ka-52s compel our units to heavily rely on infantry on foot Image
13/ Despite adversity and against all odds, the 28th Brigade forced the 1428th Rgt and units from the 51st, 31st, and 7th (assault-recon) brigades to retreat across the railroad, abandoning their positions north of Kurdyumivka. The brigade still controls the dam in Kurdyumivka. Image
14/ Naturally, the 28th brigade does not operate in isolation; it receives support from other units. These forward advances often come with losses. However, in comparison, russian forces bear an even heavier burden of losses and continue to retreat
15/ While artillery remains crucial, drones are vital for fire correction, reconnaissance, assaults, defense, and maneuvers. Given the high drone casualty rate in this war, brigades rely on a constant supply from civilian organizations
16/ This is an excellent example fundraiser currently raising money to assist the 32nd and 28th brigades with drones. Feel free to check and contribute to support them:

17/ Thank you for reading. If you found this thread interesting, please assist by liking and sharing the first message of the thread, as it greatly contributes to improving the post's visibility via the algorithm.

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More from @Tatarigami_UA

Aug 19
If we focus on the bigger picture today, the overall situation is not that bad. We went from Russia’s 2022 demands: military downsizing, government changes, the secession of multiple regions, and other demands: to a much shorter list of demands today:
2/ Notably, Ukraine has also stepped back from its maximalist demands for a de facto return to its 1991 borders and the full withdrawal of Russian forces. Clearly, its stance against direct negotiations has been abandoned as well.
3/ Whether this will work or not is beyond the scope of this message, but interestingly, if you read some of the more-or-less “semi-independent” Russian “Z” channels, not just those that repeat state propaganda, you can see that this realization is starting to take hold
Read 5 tweets
Aug 18
So far, Russia has failed to achieve any of its stated strategic goals in this war:

Demilitarization – failed.

Regime change in Kyiv – failed.

Full control over Donbas – failed.

Preventing NATO enlargement – failed.

🧵Short thread:
2/ Demilitarization of Ukraine. The Ukrainian military is now larger, better armed, and far more experienced than before the war. It is more technologically advanced and capable than ever before.
3/ Russia failed to remove Zelenskyy or his government. Kyiv remains fully under Ukrainian control. The chances of a pro-Russian party winning the next election are slim to none
Read 7 tweets
Aug 17
Brief update on Dobropillia situation.🧵Thread:

1/ As I noted from the outset, based on the limited information then available, there was no “operational breakthrough”. The penetration was tactical, involving roughly a battalion-sized force. Still, it is too soon for celebration Map Credit: Deep State Live
2/ Initially, the situation was especially risky, as Russian units managed to break east of Dobropillia. I would not describe this as a DRG (sabotage group) operation or a simple raid, since neither term accurately reflects the size of the force or its mission in the context
3/ It is positive that Ukrainian forces contained the threat and prevented it from developing into an operational breakthrough. However, the scale of reinforcements required was significant. According to Deep State, the following units were involved in the reinforcement effort:
Read 8 tweets
Aug 16
Missing Targeting Pods, Inflated Bills: An Exclusive Investigation into the Su-57 Procurement Problems by Frontelligence Insight. 🧵Thread:

1/ Newly obtained classified documents, show that Russia purchased its 5-generation Su-57 fighters for more than 3 billion rubles each;Image
2/ Data provided by Analytical Company "Dallas" (@dallasparkua) shows that in 2021 & 2022, Su-57 fighter jets were delivered without targeting pods, leaving them short of their advertised capabilities. At the time, the cost of a single Su-57 was roughly $42.1 million in USD terms Image
3/ The documents show that in 2021, a year before the war, the Russian Defense Ministry formally accepted Su-57 aircraft without the 101KS-N, an electro-optical targeting subsystem. This was allowed under Additional Agreement No. 8. Image
Read 14 tweets
Aug 15
8th Army MIA Cases, 2024–2025:

Debates over losses are always heated, but hard data cuts through the noise. Frontelligence Insight analyzed Russian documents released by the I Want to Live project, giving insight on soldiers of the 8th Army who went missing in action. 🧵Thread:
2/ From January 2024 to June 2025, 6,921 soldiers and officers of the 8th Army were reported missing in action. Part of the Southern Military District, the 8th Army has primarily operated in Donetsk Oblast, with elements recently deployed at Pokrovsk to reinforce the 58th Army.
3/ Looking at the timeline, losses in 2025 have significantly peaked compared with 2024. The number of monthly MIA cases more than doubled and remained consistent throughout 2025, reflecting the period of active offensive operations, particularly in Donetsk. Image
Read 12 tweets
Aug 14
Commented to the FT on pressure to cede territories:

“The constitution limits his power: he has no legal right to alter Ukraine’s territorial integrity. Even more constraining is pressure from society and, crucially, the military, which opposes giving up unoccupied territory"Image
“President Zelenskyy is caught between a rock and a hard place,” the article concludes with my comment.

Given the opportunity, I also want to add that if peace is to be negotiated, we cannot start with non-starter demands, which our President won't be able to accept
Diplomacy is the art of compromise and seeking constructive solutions. Ukraine has been constructive, avoiding maximalist demands, but if Moscow imposes such demands, the Trump administration should recognize that Ukraine is not the party which obstructs his vision and peace
Read 4 tweets

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