While global attention is primarily on the counter-offensive in the South, there has been noteworthy yet often unnoticed progress in the southernmost part of Bakhmut's defenses. In this thread, I will provide the latest information about Kurdyumivka and its significance.🧵Thread:
2/ Kurdyumivka, a small town situated to the south of Bakhmut, holds a tactical advantage due to its elevated position. It offers crucial control over vital roadways connecting Horlivka and Bakhmut, encompassing both highways and railway lines.
3/ As illustrated in this image, maintaining control over Kurdyumivka and the eastern heights affords the ability to establish effective fire control and disrupt the enemy's logistical route from Horlivka and Svitlodarsk to Bakhmut, which passes in close proximity to Kurdyumivka
4/ Kurdyumivka presents a formidable challenge as a target due to its elevated position in relation to advancing Ukrainian forces, as well as its separation by bodies of water, including this channel, with a restricted number of bridges available for crossing
5/ During June and July 2023, the 28th brigade exerted substantial pressure, forcing russian retreat across the channel and setting the stage for further advances towards Kurdyumivka. This time-lapse video documents the progress
6/ In a successful June operation, the 28th brigade's mechanized battalion destroyed the enemy battalion and captured fortified positions, bolstering security for the advancing northern sector forces.
7/ Upon seizing fortified positions, navigating minefields, and crossing a water channel, the 28th brigade faced formidable resistance from the 1428th Rgt, the 57th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Bde, and elements of the Akhmat-North Rgt and St. George Reconnaissance Assault Bde
8/ The area north of Kurdyumivka has transformed into a fierce battleground, with the russians heavily fortifying their defenses to halt any northern advances. The vivid imagery highlights the intense combat that unfolded, with every meter of land fiercely contested.
9/ The stark comparison between August and September reveals the extent of destruction in the area, which was liberated from the russians despite their numerical advantage and the support of Lancets, FPV drones, artillery, and Ka-52 helicopters providing cover.
10/ This brief video offers a general overview of the 28th's summer campaign, starting with the clearance of defensive lines along the eastern side of the channel, which forced elements from multiple brigades and regiments to retreat. It then secured a land route into Kurdyumivka
11/ The second phase involved a northern push, with support from neighboring brigades. This enabled the 28th to engage the enemy from both the northern and eastern flanks simultaneously, forcing the enemy to abandon their positions and retreat beyond the railroad to higher ground
12/ Lancets, as well as the Ka-52 helicopters, located around 105km from Kurdyumivka, pose a significant threat due to the absence of good AD cover. With a substantial supply of Vikhr AT-missiles at their disposal, these Ka-52s compel our units to heavily rely on infantry on foot
13/ Despite adversity and against all odds, the 28th Brigade forced the 1428th Rgt and units from the 51st, 31st, and 7th (assault-recon) brigades to retreat across the railroad, abandoning their positions north of Kurdyumivka. The brigade still controls the dam in Kurdyumivka.
14/ Naturally, the 28th brigade does not operate in isolation; it receives support from other units. These forward advances often come with losses. However, in comparison, russian forces bear an even heavier burden of losses and continue to retreat
15/ While artillery remains crucial, drones are vital for fire correction, reconnaissance, assaults, defense, and maneuvers. Given the high drone casualty rate in this war, brigades rely on a constant supply from civilian organizations
16/ This is an excellent example fundraiser currently raising money to assist the 32nd and 28th brigades with drones. Feel free to check and contribute to support them:
17/ Thank you for reading. If you found this thread interesting, please assist by liking and sharing the first message of the thread, as it greatly contributes to improving the post's visibility via the algorithm.
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Чому США такі «беззубі», коли мова йде про дії проти головних геополітичних суперників? Чому здається, що країна скотилась в ізоляціонізм і фактично ігнорує міжнародну систему, яку сама ж будувала десятиліттями? Короткий 🧵тред на основі цифр, графіків і моїх спостережень:
2/ Умовною відправною точкою можна вважати події 11 вересня та подальше вторгнення в Афганістан і Ірак. Ці два десятиліття воєн у США відомі як GWOT (Global War on Terror) - Глобальна війна з тероризмом, розпочата Джорджем Бушем-молодшим за майже повної підтримки обох партій
3/ З часом, коли стало очевидно, що в Іраку немає зброї масового ураження, а "перемога" в Афганістані сумнівна, підтримка почала падати. Згідно з опитуванням Pew Research Center, вже у 2019 році 62% американців і 64% ветеранів війни в Іраку вважали, що війна була того не варта
The latest satellite images show 3 major developments: a large Russian troop buildup in Bryansk Oblast, damage from recent drone strikes in Kyiv, and unusual military activities at Taiwan’s Wangan Airport.
All three have one thing in common - they were generated by AI. 🧵Thread:
2/ While those who regularly work with satellite imagery or OSINT can quickly tell that something is "off," the quality of AI-generated satellite images is improving fast. As the number of convincing fakes grows, I've put together a few recommendations to help avoid being misled
3/ In the case of the "Kyiv attack," it took just a single prompt on a free platform to generate the image. While it appears convincing at first glance, a closer look reveals clear geometric irregularities - distorted car shapes, and irregular windows and balconies on buildings
A drone attack is ongoing against Russian airbases with strategic bombers. While the full damage is still unclear, several videos show multiple bombers have been badly hit. Satellite images from yesterday confirm that Belaya hosts various Tu-95 models, Tu-22M3s, and Tu-160s
Satellite imagery of Olenya Airbase from May 26 at 09:50 UTC, shared by @avivector , shows the presence of 11 Tu-95MS (Bear-H), 5 An-12 (Cub), and 40 Tu-22M3 (Backfire-C) aircraft.
Another suspected target is Belaya Airbase. Satellite images from May 31, analysed by @avivector , show the presence of 7 Tu-160 (Blackjack), 6 Tu-95MS (Bear-H), 2 Il-78M (Midas), 6 An-26, 2 An-12, 39 Tu-22M3, and 30 MiG-31 aircraft.
Over the past few months, Russians have focused on disrupting Ukrainian logistics, using a mix of drones, including fiber-optic. Once EW is neutralized or forced to withdraw by fiber-optic drones, it clears the way for drones like the Molniya, which can fly over 20 km. Thread:
2/ Cutting off supply lines has made vehicle transport nearly impossible. In some cases, individual soldiers must walk more than 10 km at night to deliver basic supplies: an unsustainable way for supporting any sizable unit, or even rotating troops.
3/ Despite growing logistical problems, Ukrainian command has made bad choices to launch Russian-modelled assaults. The attempt to capture positions while already struggling to hold current ones, with fewer troops and less equipment, lead to predictably poor outcome
Through the Optics of War: An analysis of leaked confidential data from Russia’s military-industrial complex by Frontelligence Insight — from thermal scopes and laser anti-UAV programs to Chinese import schemes and production bottlenecks in the optoelectronic sector. 🧵Thread:
2/ Rostec is a state-owned conglomerate that includes much of Russia’s military-industrial complex. One of its key holdings, Shvabe, specializes in optical-electronic technologies for military and dual-use applications. The original files were obtained by the @256CyberAssault
3/ In February 2024, Polyus Scientific Research Institute, part of Shvabe Holding, was tasked with advancing laser technologies to counter UAVs. This includes developing materials like active elements under a program focused on high-power lasers, running through 2033.
How bad is Russia’s war chest? Has the country entered stagflation? Why does it fear falling oil prices, but not a crash? And how is the tariff war hurting Russia?
These questions — and more — are explored in a special interview with Russian economist Vladimir Milov.
🧵Thread:
2/ Tariff wars:
China’s economic slowdown has closed its market to many Russian products, hitting major industries hard. The China-focused Russian coal industry is struggling, and Russian non-energy and non-commodity exports are down by about a quarter compared to pre-2022 levels
3/ Tariff war will obviously exacerbate the Chinese slowdown. The slower Chinese growth, the less market for Russian goods. Share of China in the total Russian exports is as high as a third now - we're heavily dependent on this market and its well-being.