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Sep 15, 2023 17 tweets 5 min read Read on X
While global attention is primarily on the counter-offensive in the South, there has been noteworthy yet often unnoticed progress in the southernmost part of Bakhmut's defenses. In this thread, I will provide the latest information about Kurdyumivka and its significance.🧵Thread: Image
2/ Kurdyumivka, a small town situated to the south of Bakhmut, holds a tactical advantage due to its elevated position. It offers crucial control over vital roadways connecting Horlivka and Bakhmut, encompassing both highways and railway lines. Image
3/ As illustrated in this image, maintaining control over Kurdyumivka and the eastern heights affords the ability to establish effective fire control and disrupt the enemy's logistical route from Horlivka and Svitlodarsk to Bakhmut, which passes in close proximity to Kurdyumivka Image
4/ Kurdyumivka presents a formidable challenge as a target due to its elevated position in relation to advancing Ukrainian forces, as well as its separation by bodies of water, including this channel, with a restricted number of bridges available for crossing Image
5/ During June and July 2023, the 28th brigade exerted substantial pressure, forcing russian retreat across the channel and setting the stage for further advances towards Kurdyumivka. This time-lapse video documents the progress
6/ In a successful June operation, the 28th brigade's mechanized battalion destroyed the enemy battalion and captured fortified positions, bolstering security for the advancing northern sector forces. Image
7/ Upon seizing fortified positions, navigating minefields, and crossing a water channel, the 28th brigade faced formidable resistance from the 1428th Rgt, the 57th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Bde, and elements of the Akhmat-North Rgt and St. George Reconnaissance Assault Bde Image
8/ The area north of Kurdyumivka has transformed into a fierce battleground, with the russians heavily fortifying their defenses to halt any northern advances. The vivid imagery highlights the intense combat that unfolded, with every meter of land fiercely contested. Image
9/ The stark comparison between August and September reveals the extent of destruction in the area, which was liberated from the russians despite their numerical advantage and the support of Lancets, FPV drones, artillery, and Ka-52 helicopters providing cover. Image
10/ This brief video offers a general overview of the 28th's summer campaign, starting with the clearance of defensive lines along the eastern side of the channel, which forced elements from multiple brigades and regiments to retreat. It then secured a land route into Kurdyumivka
11/ The second phase involved a northern push, with support from neighboring brigades. This enabled the 28th to engage the enemy from both the northern and eastern flanks simultaneously, forcing the enemy to abandon their positions and retreat beyond the railroad to higher ground
12/ Lancets, as well as the Ka-52 helicopters, located around 105km from Kurdyumivka, pose a significant threat due to the absence of good AD cover. With a substantial supply of Vikhr AT-missiles at their disposal, these Ka-52s compel our units to heavily rely on infantry on foot Image
13/ Despite adversity and against all odds, the 28th Brigade forced the 1428th Rgt and units from the 51st, 31st, and 7th (assault-recon) brigades to retreat across the railroad, abandoning their positions north of Kurdyumivka. The brigade still controls the dam in Kurdyumivka. Image
14/ Naturally, the 28th brigade does not operate in isolation; it receives support from other units. These forward advances often come with losses. However, in comparison, russian forces bear an even heavier burden of losses and continue to retreat
15/ While artillery remains crucial, drones are vital for fire correction, reconnaissance, assaults, defense, and maneuvers. Given the high drone casualty rate in this war, brigades rely on a constant supply from civilian organizations
16/ This is an excellent example fundraiser currently raising money to assist the 32nd and 28th brigades with drones. Feel free to check and contribute to support them:

17/ Thank you for reading. If you found this thread interesting, please assist by liking and sharing the first message of the thread, as it greatly contributes to improving the post's visibility via the algorithm.

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More from @Tatarigami_UA

Mar 30
One of the biggest problems of this war is that Ukraine and the West haven’t clearly defined what "winning" looks like. This has allowed the Russians to present the "Istanbul Agreements" as the only viable negotiation framework, due to the absence of a well-defined alternative.
2/ The "Victory Plan" presented by Zelensky is not a true negotiation framework, and it didn’t resonate with the previous administration, let alone the current White House administration. Of course, there are alternative options, such as Russia retreating to 1991 borders
3/ The problem is that Russia won't do that, and there is no realistic enforcement mechanism, short of intervention. The United States isn’t going to bomb Russia. This raises the question: what does a "desired outcome," based on the realities on the ground, actually look like?
Read 8 tweets
Mar 25
Almost every day, we hear about strikes against targets inside Russia, but we rarely get the full picture of their actual impact on the war. Radio Liberty and Frontelligence Insight have joined efforts to analyze hundreds of data points to answer this question.

🧵Thread Image
2/ Our research covered the period from September 2024 to February 2025, divided into two sections: strikes on military targets, infrastructure, and on the energy sector. We found that strikes on Russia’s energy sector caused at least $658 million in damage over ~6 months
3/ The real damage to the Russian energy sector and the economy as a whole may be higher. In at least 67 out of 100 cases, Ukrainian strikes were successful, while in another 33 cases the result of the attacks remains unknown or it is impossible to prove Ukraine's involvement. Image
Read 23 tweets
Mar 21
Kursk Offensive: A Preliminary Assessment by Frontelligence Insight.
A condensed version of report for X. 🧵Thread:

1/ With Ukrainian forces withdrawing from Sudzha, the operation is clearly approaching its conclusion though it is not yet entirely over.Image
2/ To assess the operation, not in isolation, but within the broader context of the war, we broke down the Kursk operation into 3 key questions: whether its geopolitical objectives were met, whether the attrition rate was favorable, and whether it achieved battlefield success
3/ To determine equipment attrition, we analyzed data from OSINT analyst @naalsio26, who tracks losses across multiple frontlines. Our graphs show losses from August to March but are not exhaustive, as they exclude some retreat-related losses. The cut-off date was March 10. Image
Read 20 tweets
Mar 5
Frontelligence Insight Special Report: AWOL Trends and Casualty Ratios in Russia and Ukraine

In assessing overall manpower casualty ratios, we analyzed Russian AWOL figures alongside Ukrainian estimates, factoring in KIA, MIA, and recruitment rates to assess the war’s prospectsImage
2/ Thanks to @InformNapalm, a Ukrainian OSINT community, we analyzed a screenshot of a Russian presentation slide detailing desertion numbers. The percentage and corresponding figures allowed us to calculate the total number of AWOL cases across all Russian military districts. Image
3/ As shown in the translated graph, the Southern MD has the highest number of desertion cases. This is unsurprising, as it includes the former 1st and 2nd Army Corps (now the 51st and 3rd CAAs), which are largely composed of forcibly mobilized residents from occupied territories Image
Read 14 tweets
Feb 4
One of the most critical yet unresolved questions of this war is the true impact of drone attacks inside Russia. Our team has been working with media organizations and volunteers to tackle this. But finding the answer isn’t easy, and we need your support. Here’s how you can help: Image
2/ The simplest and most effective way to support our investigation is through donations. This helps cover essential expenses like satellite imagery, expert analysis, and time. You can donate via BuyMeaCoffee:

buymeacoffee.com/frontelligence
3/ We’re also looking for volunteers to assess the damage, particularly those with expertise in damage surveys, industrial building damage assessments, and the oil and gas industry: especially in evaluating potential refinery damage. Feel free to contact us at
frontel@proton.me
Read 4 tweets
Feb 4
As we move into the second month of the year, Frontelligence Insight has prepared an early assessment report covering recent developments on the frontlines and within both Ukrainian and Russian military forces. Below are some key highlights from the report.
1/ 🧵Thread: Image
2/ The frontline dynamics for Ukraine remain challenging, with setbacks in Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, Kupyansk, and Toretsk. While leadership is working to address organizational and recruitment issues, it will take time for these changes to be implemented and impact the battlefield.
3/ Russian forces are facing high losses, with tens of thousands of AWOL cases and a significant depletion of armored vehicles, which are being replaced by civilian transport. Nevertheless, they continue advancing in areas where Ukrainian defenses are stretched with few people
Read 18 tweets

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