@realmoney Sep 15, 2023 | 03:07 PM EDT DOUG KASS
Minding Mr. Market
* In a nutshell...
My working assumptions - based on my analysis amplified over the last few months in my Diary are:
* The S&P Index has likely topped for the year.
* Stocks are statistically overvalued based
on both fundamentals and by the range of historical valuations.
* Credit is more attractive than equity.
* Short-dated Treasuries provide equity-like returns with little volatility and risk.
* Few stocks meet my standard to buy.
* Many stocks meet my standard to short.
* The downside risks are substantially in excess of the upside rewards over the next six months. @tomkeene @lisaabramowicz1 @ferrotv @business @carlquintanilla @ScottWapnerCNBC @HalftimeReport @cnbcfastmoney @guyadami @dougkass @threadreaderapp unroll
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
Up on @realmoney Aug 15, 2023 | 09:10 AM EDT DOUG KASS
Accumulating Interest Rate/Stock Market Valuation Headwinds
* The real rate of the ten year Treasury note (over 1.80%) is up to 2009 levels.
* The Equity Risk Premium is paper thin from an historical standpoint.
* The one year Treasury note yields 5.41% against the S&P dividend yield of only 1.51% - the largest gap in almost two decades.
*As witnessed by this morning's stronger than expected retail sales print, the domestic economy has grown less rate sensitive than in the past.
This is especially true of the residential real estate market where existing homeowners can't afford to move and "trade up" due to the massive refinancing to low mortgage rates during the Fed's decade long plus zero interest rate policy. @dougkass @business @tomkeene
@realmoney @dougkass Jul 27, 2023 | 07:45 AM EDT DOUG KASS
Minding Mr. Market
Based on an explosive move overnight in stock futures, the S&P Index will make a 52-week high this morning.
This is not what I have expected.
I have been guided my numerous concerns (a reacceleration
of inflation, high interest rates for longer, weakening EU/China stalling global economic growth, corporate profit concerns, elevated valuations and a narrow market advance... among other issues).
Above all I have viewed equities as overvalued relative to interest rates
(the equity risk premium is paper thin) and to the lowly S&P dividend yield (now under 1.49%).
This is the most unforgiving market I can recall in decades.
FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) is part of the reason that momentum is supercharged. And, so likely, is market structure --
Jul 18, 2023 | 08:24 AM EDT DOUG KASS
Why I Am Bearish Over the Remainder of 2023
* In the body of this missive I explain my view that downside risk dwarfs upside reward
* Today, few equities meet my standards for selection
* We see short and longer term
challenges to equities
* 'Slugflation' - sluggish economic growth and prickly inflation - may lie ahead
* Equities are particularly overpriced relative to interest rates - the Equity Risk Premium is thin and bond yields are very high relative to the S&P dividend yield
* The secret to making money in extreme times of high valuations lies in contrarianism, not conformity
* I admit to having been wrong over the last few months and may continue to be wrong... realmoney.thestreet.com/dougs-daily-di…
On @realmoney a 4 part series of columns on why the AI speculation might be overdone... taking my cue from Succession in which Shiv confronts Matsson about GoJo's phony sub numbers in India @tomkeene @ferrotv @lisaabramowicz1 @business @carlquintanilla https://t.co/GW92O9DWrFgoogle.com/search?q=Succe…
Jul 07, 2023 | 11:55 AM EDT DOUG KASS
We Will Just Build Another India!
Shiv: "So what's happening with your numbers?"
Matsson: "What numbers? In India? ... Well, we have a little issue that we are looking into with subscriber numbers being bullshit, not bullish but a little bit
Now on @realmoney
Jun 26, 2023 | 08:11 AM EDT DOUG KASS
The Havoc From Sustained High Interests for Longer Is Not Reflected in Stock Prices
* The mortgage and labor markets are not as rate sensitive as previously assumed
* The Federal Reserve, and central bankers around the
world, are not done with raising interest rates
* And the broad range of adverse effects are expanding
* Higher interest rates adversely impact all (discounted cash flow) models - a market unfriendly development
* Higher fixed income returns provide a non-volatile and attractive
low risk competition to stocks
* The equity risk premium currently suggests that credit is more attractive than equities @tomkeene @business @lisaabramowicz1 @carlquintanilla @ferrotv @ScottWapnerCNBC @SaraEisen @jimcramer @cnbcfastmoney @halftime
"These things (AI) can and do happen slowly and on the fringes, or else there is tremendous dislocation. Which is my point, this will be a slow and incremental process, just like the automobile, PC, internet and even globalization,
which has also caused a fair bit of dislocation, not all for the best as we are finding out. The economy and markets went through booms and busts with all of these inventions. Creative destruction. The jello just shifts as new winners and losers are created. Even with the
internet, which is the most productivity enhancing invention in recent history, trendline GDP growth remained halved, from about 4%, down to 2% even with said internet. The jello just shifted. There were winners, and losers, and the world has changed, not necessarily for the