The UK government recently published their 2023 edition of the National Risk Register (NRR).
This document is a summary of the most serious risks facing our country.
The risks identified are then grouped into 9 core risk themes.
Can you guess what the #1 top risk is?
🧵
So here’s the Risk Matrix for the UK. It plots the likelihood vs impact for each key risk.
There’s one that stands out from the crowd…
Number 54.
Its impact is great enough to be considered ‘catastrophic’ & its likelihood is considerably higher than other catastrophic risks.
Here’s the key 👇🏻
Let’s see how long it takes you to find that ‘riskiest of all risks’, number 54.
Ah look, there it is…
Number 54.
The riskiest of all risks.
‘PANDEMIC’
Surprise, surprise.
To summarise:
The National Risk Register (NRR) documents the most serious risks facing our country.
It has identified ‘Pandemics’ as being the number 1 risk facing the UK.
So what’s the point of this Risk Register?
This is explained in the foreword:
“We are giving businesses & other organisations as much information as possible about the risks they face, so that they can use this knowledge to support their own planning, preparation and response.”
So if the whole point of the risk register is to help the UK with its preparedness to tackle the key risks identified…
…and the number one key risk identified is ‘pandemics’…
…why the hell aren’t we doing more to prepare for it?
The current pandemic is far from over & the government are already doing a pretty poor job of handling that one.
They’ve installed enhanced air filtration systems in Parliament, MoD & DfE HQ…
…but refused to install air filters in schools, hospitals & other public spaces.
They’ve systematically dismantled & obfuscated the entire Covid data surveillance system to the point where no one can be quite clear on what’s going on…
They’ve massively reduced the eligibility criteria for the Covid vaccine and are using up older outdated vaccines rather than investing in the new updated XBB vaccine used in the US, Canada and many other countries.
They’re encouraging children with symptoms of Covid to come to school anyway and spread it to all of their classmates & teachers, starting countless new chains of transmission.
Last Autumn term (2022/23), 12.4% of all pupils missed 10% or more sessions due to illness alone.
The National Risk Register includes a section specifically addressing the Covid pandemic.
It reiterates that:
“The most significant risk to materialise in the UK has been the COVID-19 pandemic. This has impacted all aspects of society & will have consequences into the future.”
It goes on to say:
“The risk of a pandemic has long been identified as one of the most serious risks facing the UK.”
…and…
“The lessons from COVID-19 have been incorporated into the government's risk assessment methodology.”
Uh oh. 😳
Seriously though, if pandemics really are the number one risk facing the UK, why on earth aren’t we investing in clear air technologies, like improved ventilation & air filtration, NOW?
…particularly in places like schools and hospitals?
I’ve just listened to the health update from the US Nebraska Health Officials 🇺🇸
A few points of interest:
1/ in addition to the US passenger who tested positive & the one showing symptoms, it seems there is ANOTHER passenger who may have tested positive.
2/ Passengers currently in the Nebraska quarantine unit will spend a few days there being assessed.
If they remain symptom free & have support available at home to isolate safely, they’ll have the choice to complete the 42-day isolation either at home or in the quarantine unit.
3/ When asked about the US passengers who left the ship in St Helena on 24 Apr (at the same time at the Dutch woman who was symptomatic & sadly died on 26 Apr), they confirmed that these passengers have all been traced & are being monitored - but seems they’re NOT self-isolating.
Following my thread yesterday which criticised aspects of the WHO’s strategy, I’m pleased to see they’ve done a 180° turn in the updated guidance published today:
…and ALL high-risk contacts will now be required to ISOLATE in a designated facility or at home (depending on each country’s capabilities) for 42 days from last known exposure…
…and for the MV Hondius passengers & crew, the last day of exposure is the date of disembarkation.
So for the passengers & crew leaving the ship today, the clock for their 42 days in isolation starts ticking TODAY…
…and their isolation & monitoring will end on 21 June.
Following the WHO press briefing, I wanted to compile a thread with the key points.
1/ ISOLATION OF PASSENGERS
Concerningly, it seems the WHO are NOT recommending to isolate cruise ship passengers (even high-risk contacts) UNLESS they develop symptoms.
Just to quickly recap, it has been confirmed that the passengers & crew (including the 30 who disembarked on 24 April in St Helena) come from a total of 28 different countries.
The full breakdown of countries for both passengers 🟥 & crew 🟦 is detailed below ⬇️
When the 146 people remaining on the ship are repatriated to their home countries, each country will adopt their own local protocols.
There’s been a lot of discussion online and in the media about how exactly Meningitis B spreads.
A lot of it is conflicting & confusing.
So let’s put opinions & hearsay aside and take a proper look at what the latest science actually tells us…
🧵
The UK National Institute for Health & Care Excellence (NICE) states that bacterial meningitis and meningococcal disease is transmitted by the following 3 modes:
“Fundamental flaws in the UK’s approach to IPC [infection prevention & control] guidance, for example in relation to the use of PPE, put patients and healthcare workers at risk.”
“Initial guidance on preventing the spread of infection was flawed. It assumed the virus was spread by contact transmission, failing properly to consider the extent to which it was also spread by AIRBORNE transmission.”
But it wasn’t just the “initial guidance” that was flawed!
To this very day, the IPC guidance STILL does not reflect the latest science on AIRBORNE transmission.