The UK government recently published their 2023 edition of the National Risk Register (NRR).

This document is a summary of the most serious risks facing our country.

The risks identified are then grouped into 9 core risk themes.

Can you guess what the #1 top risk is?

🧵 Image
So here’s the Risk Matrix for the UK. It plots the likelihood vs impact for each key risk.

There’s one that stands out from the crowd…

Number 54.

Its impact is great enough to be considered ‘catastrophic’ & its likelihood is considerably higher than other catastrophic risks. Image
Here’s the key 👇🏻

Let’s see how long it takes you to find that ‘riskiest of all risks’, number 54. Image
Ah look, there it is…

Number 54.

The riskiest of all risks.

‘PANDEMIC’

Surprise, surprise. Image
To summarise:

The National Risk Register (NRR) documents the most serious risks facing our country.

It has identified ‘Pandemics’ as being the number 1 risk facing the UK. Image
So what’s the point of this Risk Register?

This is explained in the foreword:

“We are giving businesses & other organisations as much information as possible about the risks they face, so that they can use this knowledge to support their own planning, preparation and response.” Image
So if the whole point of the risk register is to help the UK with its preparedness to tackle the key risks identified…

…and the number one key risk identified is ‘pandemics’…

…why the hell aren’t we doing more to prepare for it?
The current pandemic is far from over & the government are already doing a pretty poor job of handling that one.

They’ve installed enhanced air filtration systems in Parliament, MoD & DfE HQ…

…but refused to install air filters in schools, hospitals & other public spaces.
Image
They’ve systematically dismantled & obfuscated the entire Covid data surveillance system to the point where no one can be quite clear on what’s going on…

Thread 🧵👇🏻
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They’ve massively reduced the eligibility criteria for the Covid vaccine and are using up older outdated vaccines rather than investing in the new updated XBB vaccine used in the US, Canada and many other countries.
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They’re encouraging children with symptoms of Covid to come to school anyway and spread it to all of their classmates & teachers, starting countless new chains of transmission.

Last Autumn term (2022/23), 12.4% of all pupils missed 10% or more sessions due to illness alone.
Image
They’ve removed all masking, self-isolation & routine Covid testing mandates for both staff & patients in hospitals.

Even before this guidance, 30% of patients in hospital with Covid had caught it there.

It will almost certainly be worse now but is no longer tracked.
Image
The National Risk Register includes a section specifically addressing the Covid pandemic.

It reiterates that:

“The most significant risk to materialise in the UK has been the COVID-19 pandemic. This has impacted all aspects of society & will have consequences into the future.” Image
It goes on to say:

“The risk of a pandemic has long been identified as one of the most serious risks facing the UK.”

…and…

“The lessons from COVID-19 have been incorporated into the government's risk assessment methodology.”

Uh oh. 😳 Image
Seriously though, if pandemics really are the number one risk facing the UK, why on earth aren’t we investing in clear air technologies, like improved ventilation & air filtration, NOW?

…particularly in places like schools and hospitals?
Image
Improving ventilation & air filtration doesn’t just reduce transmission of Covid, it works for ALL airborne diseases.

It will future proof us against future pandemics, as well as reducing the spread of the current one.

We need a clean air revolution!

northwestbylines.co.uk/environment/po…
If you’re interested in reading the full 2023 U.K. National Risk Register document, you can find the link below 👇🏻

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
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More from @_CatintheHat

Dec 11
This feels like an important breakthrough moment…

On the BBC News this evening, Medical Editor @BBCFergusWalsh clearly stated:

“As for facemasks, simple surgical masks are *not* good at stopping viruses. You really need a properly fitted tight respirator mask for that”…

/1
…which begs the question, why does the NHS infection control guidance STILL only recommend surgical masks for treating patients with airborne viruses like flu & Covid… and not proper FFP3 masks?

Even Baroness Hallett was rather perplexed by this during the Covid Inquiry.

/2
The IPC experts (Dr Warne & Dr Shin) who provided independent specialist advice to the Covid Inquiry both stated that IPC guidelines should be updated to recommend routine use of FFP3 masks when caring for patients with ANY respiratory virus.

So why has this not been done?

/3
Read 7 tweets
Dec 10
CEO, NHS Providers, @danielelkeles:

“It’s a v nasty variant of flu that we have this year.”

“We need to get back into the habit that, if you’re coughing & sneezing […] then you must wear a mask when you’re in public spaces.”

I’m so pleased to hear Daniel promoting masks BUT…
…I have 3 questions for @danielelkeles:

1️⃣ He only mentions that people who are sick “must wear a mask in public spaces”…

…but why did he not also suggest that people who are *not* sick should wear a mask to prevent themselves getting sick in the first place?!

Like this ⬇️ Image
2️⃣ Why didn’t @danielelkeles mention FFP masks?

Surgical masks DON’T protect against airborne transmission of flu.

“Live viruses could be detected in the air behind ALL surgical masks tested. By contrast, properly fitted respirators could provide at least a 100-fold reduction.” Image
Read 5 tweets
Dec 8
UK ‘SUPERFLU’ OUTBREAK

Schools in England & Wales have been forced to close amid escalating flu outbreaks with hundreds of pupils off sick at a time.

Simon Kidwell, headteacher of Hartford Manor Primary told BBC Breakfast: “The winter bugs spread really easily in schools”…

/1
Headteacher Simon Kidwell is not wrong.

Children are crammed into poorly ventilated classrooms, shoulder-to-shoulder with up to 29 other kids, for around 6 hours a day, 5 days a week.

It’s the perfect environment for airborne diseases to spread…

/2 Image
We had a big wave of Covid in Sept/Oct, followed in very quick succession by the current wave of flu and RSV.

It’s been one perpetual cycle of illness hammering schools.

I often hear people say: “oh, but it’s always been like this”.

But it *hasn’t* always been like this.

/3 Image
Read 18 tweets
Dec 4
NHS England: “It will not be possible to halt the spread of a new pandemic virus, and it would be a waste of public health resources and capacity to attempt to do so.”

This has got to be one of the most 🤯 things I’ve ever seen written down in an official document. Image
And this is an important point from @mdc_martinus ⬇️

The NHS constitution states that they’re meant to PREVENT health problems…

…so how can their pandemic response strategy say it’d be a WASTE of public health resources to attempt to halt the spread of a new pandemic virus?!
@mdc_martinus Here is the full letter from CATA (an alliance of medical organisations, royal colleges & trade unions) raising the alarm about the NHS pandemic response strategy to the Chair of the Covid Inquiry.

For more details, please read the excellent thread from @cv_cev linked below ⬇️ Image
Read 5 tweets
Nov 22
Two countries.

Two charts.

A very similar (and concerning) trend.

…………..

Can you think of anything that happened in 2020 which is still affecting huge swathes of people on an ongoing basis and which may help explain this worrying trend?

/1 Image
If you haven’t figured it out yet, here’s a little clue… 🔎

/2 Image
Still not worked it out?

Here’s another clue from Jim Reed, the BBC’s health reporter… 

/3
Read 10 tweets
Nov 12
PUPIL ATTENDANCE & ILLNESS

The government & media seem to believe that the significant rise in pupil absence compared to pre-pandemic is primarily driven by truancy.

They don’t seem to believe there is a GENUINE increase in illness.

So let’s take a closer look at the data… 🔎 Image
This chart shows emergency admissions for children with lower respiratory tract infections, broken down by school-age year group.

I’ve compared the 5 years before the pandemic started (2014/15 - 2018/19) to 2023/24 (most recent data published).

Do you notice anything? Image
The data is taken from the NHS Outcomes Framework.

It specifically charts Indicator 3.2: “Emergency admissions for children with lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs)”.

You can find the raw data here:

digital.nhs.uk/data-and-infor…Image
Read 65 tweets

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