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In light of further attacks on a Crimean based S-400 battery near Yevpatoria, I'm going to revisit by 'hot take' on the Sevastopol dry dock attack and try to put both into wider Ukrainian operational campaign context.
An AFU Shaping Operations & Black Sea A2AD Strategy 🧵
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An AFU Shaping Operations & Black Sea A2AD Strategy 🧵
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https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1702041908627882254
When I wrote the earlier thread I thought some combination of Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG, 5V28/S-200 and Neptune were involved.
It turned out that I was two out of three on my guesses & a further two missiles that I missed.
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It turned out that I was two out of three on my guesses & a further two missiles that I missed.
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There were 3 Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG impacts at the dry dock. The landing ship Minsk caught a missile in the engine room, the Kilo class sub Rostov-on-the-Don got a missile through the torpedo room, & a 3rd took down a dry dock crane
H/T to @front_ukrainian lft, @SmartUACat, rt
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H/T to @front_ukrainian lft, @SmartUACat, rt
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Three Storm Shadow means at least two Ukrainian PSU (Air Force) Su-24 light bombers were used in this strike.
PSU doctrine is usually 1-2 precision guided rounds per DMPI (Desired Mean Aim Point) for important targets.
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PSU doctrine is usually 1-2 precision guided rounds per DMPI (Desired Mean Aim Point) for important targets.
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https://twitter.com/Christophe_Tymo/status/1702287620330651971
So, 3 Storm Shadow hit 3 DMPI & RuAF made claims of 7 of 10 cruise missiles, then later S-200 missiles shot down, for "NATO crossed a Russian red-line" propaganda reasons.🙄
The "Reporting from Ukraine" YouTube channel stated SCALP-EG, HARM & S-200
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The "Reporting from Ukraine" YouTube channel stated SCALP-EG, HARM & S-200
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...missiles were used at Sevastopol with S-200 to activate VKS SAM's for HARM to kill & USV to distract Black Sea corvettes from air defense duties via naval close quarters battle (CQB).
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https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1684985290656493568
It turns out there were Ukrainian SOF were not only operating the USV against the Russians.
They were playing forward observer to make certain the Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG hit their assigned targets.🤯
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They were playing forward observer to make certain the Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG hit their assigned targets.🤯
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https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1702931059266957679
So, three Storm Shadow, two HARM were confirmed as being used at Sevastopol plus some number of other missiles including 5V28/S-200.
The 5V28 is a honking big missile that is difficult and time consuming to set up.
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The 5V28 is a honking big missile that is difficult and time consuming to set up.
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https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1686514599447633923
I don't see five 5V28/S-200 being used at Sevastopol.
No more than four were used at the Kerch Straits bridge in a salvo.
Two 5V28/S-200 fired from widely different azimuths would be sufficient to bring up all VKS SAM radars to feed to HARM missiles.
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No more than four were used at the Kerch Straits bridge in a salvo.
Two 5V28/S-200 fired from widely different azimuths would be sufficient to bring up all VKS SAM radars to feed to HARM missiles.
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https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1685014489433841665
It is the use of HARM missiles that tells us a lot about the PSU strike force, the missiles used and how far back Ukrainian shaping operations have gone in setting up this strike.
HARM missiles in "Pre-Briefed" mode reach 150 km, that is, PSU shot them from the Black Sea.
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HARM missiles in "Pre-Briefed" mode reach 150 km, that is, PSU shot them from the Black Sea.
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Both PSU Mig-29 & Su-27 have been shooting HARM missiles for months.
Given the distances & operational simplicity necessary for reduced radio transmissions. PSU used a pair each of Su-27 and Su-24 from a single base & flew out low over the Black Sea.
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Given the distances & operational simplicity necessary for reduced radio transmissions. PSU used a pair each of Su-27 and Su-24 from a single base & flew out low over the Black Sea.
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https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1557051198489903104
One SU-27 was pure air superiority, one carried HARMs and the two Su-24 carried Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG...
...plus something else, the ADM-160 Miniature Air-Launched Decoy (MALD).
HARM, JSOW & MALD are the bell book and candle of USAF/USN/USMC SEAD...
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...plus something else, the ADM-160 Miniature Air-Launched Decoy (MALD).
HARM, JSOW & MALD are the bell book and candle of USAF/USN/USMC SEAD...
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https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1657090950789750784
...the suppression of enemy air defenses.
The Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG are the European equivalent of the AGM-158 JASSM and the MALD have been in use by the PSU since May 2023.
It would explain the initial RuAF claim about 10 cruise missiles & aerial...
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The Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG are the European equivalent of the AGM-158 JASSM and the MALD have been in use by the PSU since May 2023.
It would explain the initial RuAF claim about 10 cruise missiles & aerial...
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https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1657076098100756504?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1657076098100756504%7Ctwgr%5Ef3f7911d51a84a43f4595b2d52de21467dffb760%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thedrive.com%2Fthe-war-zone%2Fsu-24-fencer-is-ukraines-storm-shadow-missile-carrier
...detonations seen over Sevastopol during the attack by smartphone video.
Until recently, it was impossible for the PSU to operate over the western Black Sea due to VKS low level radar & S-400 SAM coverage.
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Until recently, it was impossible for the PSU to operate over the western Black Sea due to VKS low level radar & S-400 SAM coverage.
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https://twitter.com/kad_ghani/status/1279889994505748481
This has changed due to AFU 'Shaping Operations' in the western Black Sea to change it from a Russian lake to an anti-access area denial (A2AD) zone for the Black Sea Fleet & the VKS.
Most date it to the 23/24 Aug 2023 attacks at Cape Tarkhankut...
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Most date it to the 23/24 Aug 2023 attacks at Cape Tarkhankut...
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https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1694825240608543199
...in Western Crimea, destroying a 48Ya6-K1 Podlet K1 radar and S-400 SAM battery using a newly revealed 400 km range class land attack derivative of the Neptune anti-ship missile, plus a synchronised SOF commando raid killing a 55Zh6ME Nebo M radar.
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https://twitter.com/APA_Updates/status/253151240794546176
As well as an operational battery of the P-800 Onyx/Bastion coastal missile system.
I disagree with that assessment.
The Ukrainian shaping operations leading to the Sevastopol dry dock strike have been going on for months.
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I disagree with that assessment.
The Ukrainian shaping operations leading to the Sevastopol dry dock strike have been going on for months.
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https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1694268407825199475
The AFU reoccupation of Zmiyinyy (Snake) island & the destruction of Russian occupied natural gas platforms watching Odesa with surface search radars via Harpoon missiles were the 1st steps to Sevastopol, via pushing back Russia's A2AD bubble.
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Next were repeated waves of drone swarm attacks with Ukrainian converted Chinese commercial UAVs Mugin-5 drones and occasional 5V28/S-200 missiles to map Crimea's air defense grid.
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https://twitter.com/cqwlove/status/1695073338148974918
Next came the S-300V4 battery in West Kherson killed by GMLRS.
In theory these S-400 and S-300V4 SAM batteries should be defending themselves against missile attacks.
In practice, the VKS operators are asleep at their consoles.
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In theory these S-400 and S-300V4 SAM batteries should be defending themselves against missile attacks.
In practice, the VKS operators are asleep at their consoles.
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https://twitter.com/chrisschmitz/status/1691575711046287514
Then, in the 2nd week of September after the Cape Tarkhankut attacks, the recapture of the "Boyko towers" - the three gas production platforms Russia captured in 2014 - put the final A2AD piece in place for the Sevastopol dry dock attack.
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https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1701162777702764895
And the hole in VKS SAM defenses opened by the Sevastopol attack set up the destruction of the Crimean based S-400 battery near Yevpatoria with the Neptune missile I thought was used at Sevastopol.
That is how the Russian A2AD cookie crumbles😉
22/22 End
That is how the Russian A2AD cookie crumbles😉
22/22 End
https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1702247281146396804
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