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Trent Telenko Profile picture
@TrentTelenko
Sep 17 • 17 tweets • 7 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
All right folks, it is time for another Russian truck tire🧵

There is a big pile of Russian tires in this video as well as a few blown around the building by the JDAM hit on the Russian HQ.

What do you see at 1-to-2 seconds into this clip?

1/
Let us start with what the tires in that video are not.

They are not standard Russian tactical truck tires, even ones made in China.

They are too small and lack any indications of cross country treads.

2/


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Here are some photo clips from the video, which were edited from later versions, of this telegram @warlife post circulating on "X".

Those are not tactical truck tires with cross country treads.

They are likely Loaf/Scooby Doo/Ural van tires & they are all very worn to bald.
3/

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There is exactly one, count 'em, one tactical truck with van body for radios etc.

Which is what you should see for an HQ unit, but with no more tactical trucks.

What that video documented was the combat & operational attrition of the Russian tactical & loaf truck fleet.
4/ Image
If you are short of heavy/medium 6-to-8 wheel and light 4-wheel tactical trucks.

Their replacement with Loaf/Scooby Doo/Ural civil & military vans is an acceptable work around for rear area roles.

In a war of attrition, "Needs must as the devil drives".

5/
The problem with the Loaf/Scooby Doo/Ural vans is they are not being used in rear area roles.

They are being used as a front line replacement for Russian tactical trucks, which is what that pile of tires and this FPV video underline.

6/
And this is not a rare or new occurrence.

Most resupply of forward positions are seeing the transfer from increasingly rare Russian tactical trucks to these Loaf/Scooby Doo/Ural vans.

See the Dec 2022 video below.

7/
The increasing range of Ukrainian FPV drones to between 17km & 20 km is still seeing the Kamaz tactical trucks killed, but the 50-50 ratio to vans tells us a great deal about RuAF truck logistics in the priority #Bakhmut sector as of July 2023.

8/
This March 2023 train video of Russian vehicle reinforcements includes some UAZ Patriots of Russian Military Police as well as UAZ-452 ‘Bukhanka’ (loaf/Scooby Doo), and a reactivated Ural fuel truck.

9/
That pile of non-tactical truck tires in #Svetlodarsk, #Donetsk region tells us that the civilian vehicle tires substituted for military cross country one are wearing out far faster.

In addition, Mil-Spec tactical trucks have different electrical connectors and...

10/
...fluid fitting to withstand blast from near misses.

Loaf/Scooby Doo/Ural vans just don't, because that costs money on a vehicle meant for a civilian market.

The upshot is the material side of "Lanchester Square Law Collapse".

11/
That is, in an attritional conflict having to put in more and more military effort to achieve diminishing returns in terms of combat power.

Russia is taking WW2 levels of material combat losses & is using lower capability substitutes more and more.

12/
And in 18 months Russia has taken personnel losses that rival that of the United States in all of it's WW2 participation (3 years, 8 months).

Russia is taking more and more of both human and productive capacity from its economy to fuel its "SMO".

13/
The corrupt nature of the Russian state means those with the least political power - rural areas away from Moscow & St Petersburg - will see their discretionary transportation taken first.

And there is evidence of that happening.

14/
 wionews.com/videos/russian…
The future of the Russian state is riding on fewer and fewer truck tires because it can't smuggle enough of them past Western sanctions.

And the rural transportation shortages tell us that has Russia hasn't invested in more tire plants to make them.

14/ End
15/14 PS

Grrr...

This was the russian personnel attrition link that was supposed to be in this thread.🤦‍♂️

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More from @TrentTelenko

Trent Telenko Profile picture
Sep 17
In light of further attacks on a Crimean based S-400 battery near Yevpatoria, I'm going to revisit by 'hot take' on the Sevastopol dry dock attack and try to put both into wider Ukrainian operational campaign context.

An AFU Shaping Operations & Black Sea A2AD Strategy 🧵
1/
When I wrote the earlier thread I thought some combination of Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG, 5V28/S-200 and Neptune were involved.

It turned out that I was two out of three on my guesses & a further two missiles that I missed.

2/
There were 3 Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG impacts at the dry dock. The landing ship Minsk caught a missile in the engine room, the Kilo class sub Rostov-on-the-Don got a missile through the torpedo room, & a 3rd took down a dry dock crane
H/T to @front_ukrainian lft, @SmartUACat, rt
3/
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Read 22 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Sep 13
Ukrainian PSU Commander, Lieutenant General Mykola Oleschuk has thanked Ukrainian pilots for their excellent combat work in #Sevastopol attack.

I think this confirms the use of _some_ Storm Shadow/SCALP in the #Sevastopol attack.

#Sevastopol attack🧵
1/
 ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/376…
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The fact Storm Shadow/SCALP were used at #Sevastopol does not preclude other missiles were used as well.

Ground attack versions of the Neptune anti-ship cruise missile may also have been involved in a multi-axis attack to split Russian air defenses.

3/
There is also the possibility of a Ukrainian ground attack 5V28 missile - adapted from the S-200 SAM system - was involved as well.

4/
Read 7 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Sep 13
As is usual for @sambendett, he has a crackerjack translation thread of how the Russians view drone warfare.

This one is a description of how drones hunted an AFU Bradley Fighting Vehicle and the backwardness of Western mechanized fighting doctrine in the age of armed drones.
1/
And, indeed, that is an accurate assessment.

Consider the tens of thousands of DJI and other Chinese commercial drones have been purchased and turned into weapons in the last 18 months.

The US Military has bought zero such drones.
2/
In fact, the US military can't buy a Chinese drone for anyone for any reason.

Not for military training.

Not for Ukraine.

Zip, Zero, no drones for you, you or them.🤡

3/
 theverge.com/2021/6/1/22463…
Read 7 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Sep 10
This is a useful video clip with which to compare a GMLRS M30A1 tungsten pellet round performance in terms of lethality and area of coverage to a 155mm cluster munition round.

The Grad rocket truck was killed and the crew ran away from a M30A1 AW tungsten pellet round.

1/
Now look at the area of effect of a much smaller 155mm cluster munition shell in this thermal image video.

See the much larger area of effect the cluster munition shell massing about 1/2 what a 200-pound GMLRS-AW high-explosive warhead does.

2/
A GMLRS with 400(+) DPICM grenades, compared to the 64 of a 155mm shell, would have had far superior weapons effects and none of the Russian soldiers you saw running away from a GMLRS M30A1 AW tungsten ball munition would have survived to kill more Ukrainians.

3/
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Read 12 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Sep 9
There is an on-going, extensive and systemic fuel distribution problem in Russia.

I touched on an aspect of it in an earlier thread, the substitution of gasoline powered cars for tactical and semi trucks moving supplies to Mariupol.

Russia's fuel distribution crisis🧵

1/
There are reports of gasoline shortages in Crimea.

2/
30 out of 61 Gazprom stations at Rostov-on-the Don are without fuel.👀

H/T @RayMindMusic

3/
Read 22 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Sep 7
The inability of the Biden Administration to pull in the scrap process M2 Bradley fighting vehicles and armored HMMWV from scrap contractors outside Red River Army Depot in Texas is just🤯

1/8
The 5th Amendment of the US Constitution has the takings clause which empowers "Eminent domain".

Eminent domain in the United States refers to the power of a state or the federal government to take private property for public use while requiring just compensation to be

2/8
...given to the original owner.

Because of all the requirements to demilitarize US Army armored combat vehicles. Bradley's, M113's and armored HMMWV are sold for a token one dollar each to demilitarization contractors.

3/8
 en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eminent_d…
Read 9 tweets

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