Refined likely damage assessment: this is an ex-submarine
New photos of #Russian navy submarine hit by #Ukrainian cruise missiles in Sevastopol show damage is even worse than previous noted. Photos appear credible. Pressure hull has massive breaches
2. Damage to rear section near propulsion space, as well as bow area, means basically no hull sections are likely salvageable. Implications are that internals are wrecked along most or whole length of submarine
Note cutaway is port (left)
3. This damage appears to be blown outward. One possible explanation *might* be a sympathetic battery explosion (?). Opinions welcome.
4.
Would be interesting to see reexaminations of available satellite imagery, how well does this match?
However, this looks absolutely credible to me. Beware people who over-analyse with an agenda
5. This matches previous assessment and confirms massive damage. Combined with damage further aft, conforms in my mind that pressure hull was breached. This cannot realistically be repaired
6.
I am confident that any repair (which is anyway unrealistic) cannot be done in Sevastopol. Submarine would need to be patched and towed or on a barge, probably ti St. Petersburg.
Following #Ukraine’s systematic attacks on key infrastructure and supply lines to Crimea, #Russia is beginning to show signs its working
Yesterday Ru gov asked hotels etc to report food and fuel stocks
Via @JanR210 < follow this account
Thread 🧵 1/n
2/n This may be strategically significant both because Crimea is a route to reinforce Ru positions in southern Ukraine, and because Crimea itself is the jewel in itself
There is also a major naval base in Sevastopol
3
The July attack on Kerch bridge by a Ukrainian uncrewed surface vessel (USV) disrupted the main supply line. The threat of this being cut is very real for Russia.
North Korea (DPRK) has shown off a massive new ‘underwater drone’. Several (4?) were paraded through Pyongyang.
It’s a lot like Russia’s Poseidon at first glance
I am on my phone and just seen it, so HOT TAKE caveats apply, but a 🧵
#OSINT
Firstly, it *is* a lot like Poseidon ()
It’s similar size (likely smaller and shorter) and has a very similar stern arrangement with folding fins and a ‘pump jet’ (or at least shrouded screw)
And I very much doubt it’s nuclear powered. That’s just unrealistic given North Korean projects and priorities. Instead I expect electric. So it’s mostly batteries.
After withdrawing from Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI), #Russia is threatening all ships sailing to #Ukraine controlled ports as legitimate targets. Some ambiguity but threat is clear.
The threat, reported in Ru media:
"The Russian Ministry of Defense announced that from 00:00 Moscow time on July 20, ships traveling through the Black Sea to the ports of Ukraine will be considered as carriers of military cargo"
"To ports" may also include "from ports"?
Remember that on the first day of the 2022 invasion Ru issued a prohibition on navigation in the NW Black Sea. Defined area down to the parallel 45-21 N, and from 0400 hr Feb 24 2022.
Several 3rd-country ships were subsequently attacked, attributed to Ru