H I Sutton Profile picture
Sep 18 11 tweets 3 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
***UPDATE***
Thread 1/n

Refined likely damage assessment: this is an ex-submarine

New photos of #Russian navy submarine hit by #Ukrainian cruise missiles in Sevastopol show damage is even worse than previous noted. Photos appear credible. Pressure hull has massive breaches
Image
Image
2.
Damage to rear section near propulsion space, as well as bow area, means basically no hull sections are likely salvageable. Implications are that internals are wrecked along most or whole length of submarine

Note cutaway is port (left) Image
3.
This damage appears to be blown outward. One possible explanation *might* be a sympathetic battery explosion (?). Opinions welcome. Image
4.
Would be interesting to see reexaminations of available satellite imagery, how well does this match?

However, this looks absolutely credible to me. Beware people who over-analyse with an agenda
5.
This matches previous assessment and confirms massive damage. Combined with damage further aft, conforms in my mind that pressure hull was breached. This cannot realistically be repaired Image
6.
I am confident that any repair (which is anyway unrealistic) cannot be done in Sevastopol. Submarine would need to be patched and towed or on a barge, probably ti St. Petersburg.
I’m leaning away from the battery theory. Moot point. Whatever the reason, it is only of interest not consequence
Re outward explosion, I’m leaning away from the battery theory. Moot point anyway. Whatever the reason, it is only of interest, not consequence
Correction to title:

***Submarine Cutaway of the Day*** Image
“Rostov on Gone”

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More from @CovertShores

Sep 15
***UPDATE***

Based on the Airbus satellite images shared by UK MoD, it appears that that #Russian Navy Pr.636.3 Improved-KILO class submarine was hit about here.

Downward penetrating warhead may have penetrated main pressure hull, and almost certainly mangled TT etc. #OSINT
Kilo class submarine Sevastopol
Image
In case this isn’t obvious, this is major damage. Submarines are fragile
Read 4 tweets
Sep 13
***UPDATE***

Indications are that #Russian Navy KILO class submarine has been hit by #Ukraine in Sevastopol. Unconfirmed at this stage.

This is a big deal.

More info on KILO ->

#OSINT
Thread 1/n hisutton.com/Kilo-Class-Sub…
Kilo class submarine
2.
Imagery already shows a Ropucha Class landing ship on fire. Ru sources suggest two vessels were ‘damaged’

The other is likely a KILO class submarine Image
3.
This is based on analysis by @MT_Anderson which shows a KILO class submarine in the same dry dock Image
Read 7 tweets
Aug 23
**UPDATE**

Following #Ukraine’s systematic attacks on key infrastructure and supply lines to Crimea, #Russia is beginning to show signs its working

Yesterday Ru gov asked hotels etc to report food and fuel stocks
Via @JanR210 < follow this account

Thread 🧵 1/n Image
2/n
This may be strategically significant both because Crimea is a route to reinforce Ru positions in southern Ukraine, and because Crimea itself is the jewel in itself

There is also a major naval base in Sevastopol Image
3
The July attack on Kerch bridge by a Ukrainian uncrewed surface vessel (USV) disrupted the main supply line. The threat of this being cut is very real for Russia.
Image
Image
Read 10 tweets
Aug 4
How it started. How it’s going.

In February 2022 #Russia sailed 5 landing ships into Black Sea to support the invasion, including Ropucha class Olenegorsky Gornyak (012)

Now Olenegorsky Gornyak has been hit by a USV and is listing to port
#Ukraine
Landing ship
Image
Read 5 tweets
Jul 28
***BREAKING***

North Korea (DPRK) has shown off a massive new ‘underwater drone’. Several (4?) were paraded through Pyongyang.

It’s a lot like Russia’s Poseidon at first glance

I am on my phone and just seen it, so HOT TAKE caveats apply, but a 🧵

#OSINT New underwater torpedo drone
Firstly, it *is* a lot like Poseidon ()

It’s similar size (likely smaller and shorter) and has a very similar stern arrangement with folding fins and a ‘pump jet’ (or at least shrouded screw)

Poseidon is a nuclear-powered nuclear-armed torpedo: https://t.co/dNPdtEHLE4hisutton.com/Poseidon_Torpe…
Image
However it’s not an exact match for Poseidon.

And I very much doubt it’s nuclear powered. That’s just unrealistic given North Korean projects and priorities. Instead I expect electric. So it’s mostly batteries. Image
Read 10 tweets
Jul 19
***THREAD***

After withdrawing from Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI), #Russia is threatening all ships sailing to #Ukraine controlled ports as legitimate targets. Some ambiguity but threat is clear.

What could Russia actually do though?

Info->

🧵 https://t.co/vXAu8FzVS7hisutton.com/How-Russia-Cou…
Russian submarine
The threat, reported in Ru media:
"The Russian Ministry of Defense announced that from 00:00 Moscow time on July 20, ships traveling through the Black Sea to the ports of Ukraine will be considered as carriers of military cargo"

"To ports" may also include "from ports"? Image
Remember that on the first day of the 2022 invasion Ru issued a prohibition on navigation in the NW Black Sea. Defined area down to the parallel 45-21 N, and from 0400 hr Feb 24 2022.

Several 3rd-country ships were subsequently attacked, attributed to Ru

Effective blockade Image
Read 18 tweets

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