Updated Russian tank loss charts, Starting with Losses by type. See how the T-80 losses peaked in June at 63.9% of all tank losses, but we are now 3 months into a steep decline. My theory: they have run out of reparable T-80s.
Here is the data table for the above graph, There will be 4 more Tank Charts T-90, T-80, T-72, and all, by variant, each with tables to follow. Hope people appreciate I've now got the Y assis going to 100%
T-90 losses, As noted in the Perun video the T-90A has almost disappeared, even though there are only 33 confirmed losses. it also feels like just a single batch of T-90Ss 'export version got to the front line and they are all gone now.
And agine the data table for the above graph.
T-80 losses note the very different outcomes for the 3 types, T-80U started big, but with no new production and no reserves it decreased and then disappeared. Then the old T-80BV lots in storage so it goes from small to the biggest proportion, and T-80BVM, which is still in production, but no reserves, remains a constant ish 10-20% of each month's losses.
And the data table for T-80 losses, not for the table above I have grouped some of the T-80U subtypes together.
And here is the T-72 graph, with all 10 types on. I don't see much of a pattern suggesting that T-72s are coming from storage in roughly the proportions that they started at, Note the T-72B3 Orb 2016 and 2022 are both being manufactured now but are upgrades, from older models.
And the data table for the above. one more tank graph to go.
And below is a Tank graph grouped in a way that I think makes sense and seems to be popular on Twitter. I will also tag on a comment with a handful of the other graphs I do.
My tank graphs get most of the likes and retweets, but some of the other Equipemt loss graphs are I think informative, here are some examples, If you like them please 'follow' me for more.
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1) Russia has been Visually Confirmed by @warspotting to have lost at least 3133 Tanks, and it's time for the end-of-month Update. 🧵 Overall Oct was very similar to Sep, most notably the proportion of T-62 has stopped rising.
2) I don't know why T-62s have stopped increasing, perhaps it's random, or maybe they have now used up all the 'easily to repair' T-62s. Looking at the variants of T-62 does not show a lot, most are still T-62Ms (grey) with slightly more T-62M Obr 2022s than before. (yellow)
3) Next up are the T-72s, This graph seems to show a growing move to the Orb 2022 variants, with everything else declining. While I think that process is happening, I think there is a risk of overstating this.
1) Russia's IFV/APC losses normally run at about 2 for every 1 tank that Russia loses. However, that has changed over the last five months, and it's now almost 4 to 1. I don't know why this is, but here are some observations and thoughts. 🧵
2) First I should say the above graph uses the midpoint of each 3-month period, i.e. Feb is, Jan, Feb, & Mar, Mar is Feb, Mar and Apr. The exception is in Oct 2024, which is just the first 16 days of October, so not a big sample, but as it's flowing the trend I've added it.
3) The data is from Visually Confirmed losses on the @WarSpotting website. Plotting all the Russian losses on one graph, and not using a 3-month average, gives this. Showing a decline in tanks (yellow) from about Feb, but it does jump about a bit.
1) The Military Think tank RUSI, recently released a Report on Russian Armes production, overall it's good and worth a read. However, I think it's possible to be a bit more precise/accurate and reveal something RUSI does not mention. 🧵 static.rusi.org/methodology-de…
2) The RUSI Report page 13, paragraph 2: 85% of Russian Tank and IFV/APC production is from storage. which means 15% is 'new build'. So, I divided Russian equipment losses into those still in production and those not.
3) First up tanks, the New tanks are T-90Ms and T-90Ss. Blue in the graph below. It does very but overall in 2024 it's been 7.27% of total identifiable tank losses, (i.e. excluding Unknown Tanks) its up from the first 18 months of the war, but no clear trend since then.
1) Russia is visually confirmed to have lost 6,065 IFV and APCs (by @WarSpotting ) I have created (re-created) this graph of their losses, by type, each month as a % of the total. It's a bit confusing so here is a thread, braking it down a bit, to make more sense.
2) In the first graph, I have used each month, for the next few I use a 'mid-point 3-month rolling average' So that March 23, is the Feb, Mar, Apr, added together, and April is Mar, Apr, May, and so on. Except Feb 22, is just Feb and Sep 24, is Aug, Sep and the first days of Oct
3) First I groped then by 'family of vehicles' BMPs (Blue) are close to half of the total, they seem to be on a very slow decline, The simple MT-LBs family (Orange) has been slowly, as have the BTRs (Gray) The Air Mobile Vehicles (yellow) typically used by the VDV are interesting, large numbers were lost in the opening weeks, then declined, the bump in Sep-Nov 22, was mostly the discovery of old losses when Ukrian recaptured a lot of territory. Their numbers looked like they were attenuating towards zero, but in the last 2 months, they have ticked up a bit. There is also a handful of other types, groped as 'Others' (light Blue) at the very top. For simplicity, I have left the 128 'unknown IFV/APC' off this graph, but they are becoming slightly more common.
1) Russia has lost at least 918 T-80s, which have been visually confirmed by @WarSpotting and probably more. Here is a thread, with graphs, looking at how the different types of T-80 losses have changed over time, probably in more detail than any reasonable person would want.
2) first to set the scene here are all Russia's tank losses, T-80s are in blue, and started at less than 25% of Russian tank losses, which has changed over the war, generally increasing at now makeup over 40%, in contrast to the T-72s which have gone the other way.
3) The T-80 is developed from the T-64, and was the best MBT for most of the late soviet time. First made in 1975, mostly in what is now Ukraine. The Russians don't make them anymore, but they do a lot of upgrading, which is sometimes reported as 'new'
1) Russia's old BMP-1s are disappearing, at least from the visually confirmed Losses recorded by @Warspotting. From over 40% of total BMPs to less than 18%
@WarSpotting 2) If we add the losses of this month 'to date' to that graph the decline looks even more dramatic. but that is putting 14-day losses on a graph that is otherwise a 3-month average so it's not really valid, just a possible indication of direction.
@WarSpotting 3) this is significant because the BMP family of IFVs make up about 55-60% of all Russia's IFV/APC losses.