Updated Russian tank loss charts, Starting with Losses by type. See how the T-80 losses peaked in June at 63.9% of all tank losses, but we are now 3 months into a steep decline. My theory: they have run out of reparable T-80s.
Here is the data table for the above graph, There will be 4 more Tank Charts T-90, T-80, T-72, and all, by variant, each with tables to follow. Hope people appreciate I've now got the Y assis going to 100%
T-90 losses, As noted in the Perun video the T-90A has almost disappeared, even though there are only 33 confirmed losses. it also feels like just a single batch of T-90Ss 'export version got to the front line and they are all gone now.
And agine the data table for the above graph.
T-80 losses note the very different outcomes for the 3 types, T-80U started big, but with no new production and no reserves it decreased and then disappeared. Then the old T-80BV lots in storage so it goes from small to the biggest proportion, and T-80BVM, which is still in production, but no reserves, remains a constant ish 10-20% of each month's losses.
And the data table for T-80 losses, not for the table above I have grouped some of the T-80U subtypes together.
And here is the T-72 graph, with all 10 types on. I don't see much of a pattern suggesting that T-72s are coming from storage in roughly the proportions that they started at, Note the T-72B3 Orb 2016 and 2022 are both being manufactured now but are upgrades, from older models.
And the data table for the above. one more tank graph to go.
And below is a Tank graph grouped in a way that I think makes sense and seems to be popular on Twitter. I will also tag on a comment with a handful of the other graphs I do.
My tank graphs get most of the likes and retweets, but some of the other Equipemt loss graphs are I think informative, here are some examples, If you like them please 'follow' me for more.
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1) Ukrainian keeps destroying Russian Tanks, so I'm going to keep on making graphs and 🧵 of destroyed Russian tanks.
Russian T-80s recorded the highest proportion ever 54%, and T-72 recorded the smallest ever 22%.
2) The T-80s are the most significant type, so I will start with them. T-80U losses have been minimal for two years now, but there seems to be a relatively consistent rate of change to the Orb 2022 variants. If this continues, then all the old ones will be gone around Jul/Aug.
3) T-90 losses remain bout 7% of the total. So fr this quarter they have all been the T-90M variant.
I think 'most', by which I mean almost all of the 'New T-90Ms', have been upgraded T-90a, not new builds, for the last two years, and now they're out of T-90a.
1) The makeup of Russian lost IFVs has shown a strange pattern recently. I don't know why, but the types still in production made up 25-30% of losses for most of the war, then that rose rapidly to about 40% in November, nd have now dropped to just 20%🧵
2) By types still in production, I mean the IFV BMP-3, the air mobile IFV BMP-3 and the wheeled IFV/PC crossover BTR-82.
I have not included the BTR-MDM, as there are conflicting counts regarding whether it's in production, but with only 42 losses total it won't change the graph.
3) Between November and February, the number of tracked vs. wheeled losses has increased each year, which could explain some of the change. However, it's more pronounced this year. This shows up in the first graph of new-build vs. old, which did not last a few years.
1) For the first time in two and a half years, Russia has not lost (Visually Confirmed) a single T-90 Tank for a whole month. (and only the second month of the war, after July 2022)
I think they are now very low on their best Main Battle Tank, in working condition. 🧵
2) Overall, Russia is only visually confirmed to have lost 151 T-90s, but a portion of the 333 'Unknown Tanks' will also be T-90s, and others will have been lost and not photographed. At any point in time, there will be some damaged tanks that will need repairs.
3) Russia claimed to have made 60 T-90Ms in 2021; this number might be accurate, but I suspect it includes many upgrades from T-90As.
They also claim to have increased production to 18 a month. To achieve anything close to this, All (or almost all) will have been upgraded.
1) Russian Visuly confirmed IFV/APC losses by type over the war.
It looks like 8-wheel BTR losses are a much smaller proportion of the total than usual, Reversing the trend of the last 10 months.
But this is almost certainly the mud season, 'Rasputitsa' and not a new trend.
2) I left December off the graphs and predicted a little differently. This showed what I think is the trend.
The top three IFV/APCs are still being made: BMP-3 (Dark Blue), BTR-82 (Green), and BMD-4M (Light Blue). However, the BTR-82 is increasing the most rapidly, suggesting it is being built in the largest numbers.
Meanwhile, the old BMP-1 and 2s (grey) are declining fastest, and MT-LBs are also declining more gradually, suggesting that supplies from the storage bases have decreased.
3) It might be that BMP-2s are now declining faster than BMP-1s, which makes sense because Russia would logically take the BMP-2s first, but this has only been 2 months, so it's too early to call a trend.
1) Russia has lost at least 3,251 Tanks (visually confirmed). This month, the old T-62s make up a record-high proportion of their losses. A 🧵about those losses, with a new and, I think, revealing graph from me.
2) Tanking about records, Russia is losing a record-high number of IFVs for each Tank it is losing. There could be a few reasons for this, including the fact that they don't have that many working tanks anymore. But more about that latter.
3) I'll start by looking at the T-62s as they are now at record high proportion. Most of them are the T-62M (orange) variant first made in 1983. but a growing proportion has had the Orb 2022 modification (grey) in the last 2 years.
1) Russia has lost at least 3175 tanks in the war, (as visually confirmed by @Warpotting) This month is showing an unexpected (by me) drop in T-62 losses and a small rise in the proportion of T-90s. I suspect that this indicates Russia is using its best (better?) units in Kursk.
2) The loss ratio of Russian IFVs to Russian Tanks, has stabilized at 3.5 to 1. So the spike we witnessed in September was likely not an out-lyer. Perhaps this is the new normal now?
3) Apart from the increase in IFVs to tanks, we are also seeing an increase in the IMVs (Infantry Mobility Vehicles) I think I might do an IMV ratio chart like the last one, but do not know if it is best to do IMVs to Tanks or IMVs to IFVs, thoughts?