Updated Russian tank loss charts, Starting with Losses by type. See how the T-80 losses peaked in June at 63.9% of all tank losses, but we are now 3 months into a steep decline. My theory: they have run out of reparable T-80s.
Here is the data table for the above graph, There will be 4 more Tank Charts T-90, T-80, T-72, and all, by variant, each with tables to follow. Hope people appreciate I've now got the Y assis going to 100%
T-90 losses, As noted in the Perun video the T-90A has almost disappeared, even though there are only 33 confirmed losses. it also feels like just a single batch of T-90Ss 'export version got to the front line and they are all gone now.
And agine the data table for the above graph.
T-80 losses note the very different outcomes for the 3 types, T-80U started big, but with no new production and no reserves it decreased and then disappeared. Then the old T-80BV lots in storage so it goes from small to the biggest proportion, and T-80BVM, which is still in production, but no reserves, remains a constant ish 10-20% of each month's losses.
And the data table for T-80 losses, not for the table above I have grouped some of the T-80U subtypes together.
And here is the T-72 graph, with all 10 types on. I don't see much of a pattern suggesting that T-72s are coming from storage in roughly the proportions that they started at, Note the T-72B3 Orb 2016 and 2022 are both being manufactured now but are upgrades, from older models.
And the data table for the above. one more tank graph to go.
And below is a Tank graph grouped in a way that I think makes sense and seems to be popular on Twitter. I will also tag on a comment with a handful of the other graphs I do.
My tank graphs get most of the likes and retweets, but some of the other Equipemt loss graphs are I think informative, here are some examples, If you like them please 'follow' me for more.
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1) The big story in Russian Tank losses, Is the decline in absolute numbers, (more on that in a bit) but there is also a significant change in the types lost. (Data from @WarSpotting ) with most of the decline happening in T-80s. 🧵
2) This graph is the same data as the first graph, but without the '3 month averaging'. T-62s and T-90s look like significant increase but their numbers are stedy, T-72s have declined proportionately to the overall reduction so there share is about the same.
3) The decline has been ongoing for a long time, but June and July were paticly low.
1) Over half of the Visually confirmed and identified (by @WarSpotting ) Russia tank losses this month are T-62s!
That is to say of the 12 Russian tank losses in July, 9 can be identified by type, 2 T-90s, T-72s and 5 T-62s.
There are caveats: 🧵
2)
a) With only 12 tank losses this is not a statistically significant sample.
b) Even if continued continued for many months, it does not necessarily mean that the majority of russian tanks are T-62s, it may be that older tanks are more vulnerable so lost more.
3) With the caveats out the way, this is what that looks like on a graph, T-62 losses (orange) are spiking, T-90s (green) also a record proportion of the total, T-72s down(yellow) and no T-80s (blue) so far this month.
1) With so much news coming from the war, this almost feels redundant, but here is my update🧵on Russia Tank losses, again T-80s losses out numbered T-72s, but not by as much as the last few months, T-90 losses are stedy, but T-62 Losses are down.
2) The first graph does not include 'Unknown Tank' which have been increasing and were over 25% in May (Black in this graph) this adds an extra layer of uncertainty on this, but I will persevere anyway.
3) T-90 losses, Q2 has so far only been T-90Ms. I don't know how many T-90As are left, but I suspect its very few now, the rest having been destroyed or upgraded to T-90M, but possibly some that have been forgotten.
1) The very old Russian BRM-1(K) are still rare, but becoming more common amongst Russian Losses.
So what does this mean? 🧵
2) They are still less than 2% of all Russian IFV/APC losses, but they are now over 20% of BMP-1 Based vehicles losses.
Note: I have left of the first couple of months of the war, as these months had a lot of LNR/DNR losses and were untypical.
3) So what is the BRD-1(K)? it is a soviet design reconsases vheale, based on the BMP-1. Built between 1973 and 1988, it had extra surveillance and communication equipment compared to the BMP-1 but less ammunition for its main gun, and didn't carry infantry.
1) Russian IFV/APC types that are still IN PRODUCTION are becoming rarer. After a peek in November 2024, they have dropped below 20% for some reason. a short 🧵
2) If we look at losses for the first week of April, they are down to just 2.2% of the total IFV/APC losses. I've added this week to the graph and posted here, but posting it in the second tweet in🧵so I'm not being too sensational.
3) There are 3 types known to be in production, the BMP-3,BMD-4 and BTR-82, plotting these losses against each other looks like this, the BMP-3 are a shrinking proportion of a shrinking pie.
1) Ukrainian keeps destroying Russian Tanks, so I'm going to keep on making graphs and 🧵 of destroyed Russian tanks.
Russian T-80s recorded the highest proportion ever 54%, and T-72 recorded the smallest ever 22%.
2) The T-80s are the most significant type, so I will start with them. T-80U losses have been minimal for two years now, but there seems to be a relatively consistent rate of change to the Orb 2022 variants. If this continues, then all the old ones will be gone around Jul/Aug.
3) T-90 losses remain bout 7% of the total. So fr this quarter they have all been the T-90M variant.
I think 'most', by which I mean almost all of the 'New T-90Ms', have been upgraded T-90a, not new builds, for the last two years, and now they're out of T-90a.