Updated Russian tank loss charts, Starting with Losses by type. See how the T-80 losses peaked in June at 63.9% of all tank losses, but we are now 3 months into a steep decline. My theory: they have run out of reparable T-80s.
Here is the data table for the above graph, There will be 4 more Tank Charts T-90, T-80, T-72, and all, by variant, each with tables to follow. Hope people appreciate I've now got the Y assis going to 100%
T-90 losses, As noted in the Perun video the T-90A has almost disappeared, even though there are only 33 confirmed losses. it also feels like just a single batch of T-90Ss 'export version got to the front line and they are all gone now.
And agine the data table for the above graph.
T-80 losses note the very different outcomes for the 3 types, T-80U started big, but with no new production and no reserves it decreased and then disappeared. Then the old T-80BV lots in storage so it goes from small to the biggest proportion, and T-80BVM, which is still in production, but no reserves, remains a constant ish 10-20% of each month's losses.
And the data table for T-80 losses, not for the table above I have grouped some of the T-80U subtypes together.
And here is the T-72 graph, with all 10 types on. I don't see much of a pattern suggesting that T-72s are coming from storage in roughly the proportions that they started at, Note the T-72B3 Orb 2016 and 2022 are both being manufactured now but are upgrades, from older models.
And the data table for the above. one more tank graph to go.
And below is a Tank graph grouped in a way that I think makes sense and seems to be popular on Twitter. I will also tag on a comment with a handful of the other graphs I do.
My tank graphs get most of the likes and retweets, but some of the other Equipemt loss graphs are I think informative, here are some examples, If you like them please 'follow' me for more.
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1) Russian Artillery losses have changed, for most of the war, there have been far more SPGs than Towed artillery, that started to change earlier this year and now its about 2/3 Towed guns.
2) Also the calibers of the lost Russian artillery has also changed, at the start about 2/3 of the losses were the standard 152mm guns Dark Blue). that has steadily decreased, and now represent just 11% of the total, mostly displaced by 122mm.
3) I don't know why the change is being observed. Visually observed Losses are not necessarily an exact reflection of what is being used. However, in absence of other methods/modales I'm putting this out in graph form, as it may be the best proxy we have, so long as we understand its limitations.
1) There has been a notable increase of Russian T-54/55 destroyed recently as a share of total Russian Tank losses as recorded by @WarSpotting while still modist, only 4 tanks, it's still a noteworthy increase, a short 🧵
2) There have been 88 total Russian tank losses over 3 months, but of these a quarter 22 have been of Unknown Type. Therefor, of the 66 lost tanks of Known types, the 4 T-54/55s represent 6% A small share, but not negligible, as they have been up to now.
3) All 4 of the losses have been Geo located, 2 of them are in Donetsk Oblast, one in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, and I think the most recent 'Sudxha raion' is in Russia, if i'm not mistaken. It's possible that its one Russian unit that's been moved about, But I don't think so.
1) More Russian IFV/APC losses added in the last 24 hours (16) to @WarSpotting than happened all of September combined. (14)
2) I don't have any inside knowledge of Russian tactics, and 'loss analysis' always has limitations, so recognising those limitations, I'm not going to say why this is. But those that are suggesting that Russia might have stopped supporting small assaults with IFVs and instead are now doing small numbers of larger assaults, might be right.
3) One interesting thing is that of the 25 IFV/APC losses over half 13 are MT-LBs, mostly used as a rather simple APC.
Use of MT-LBs are a proportion of total losses has been increasing, Over 40% in sep (midpoint of 3 month average) again I don't know why, but interesting.
1) A 🧵on Russian tank losses. In September russian losses returned to a more normal distribution, T-80s and T-72 each make up about 1/3 of losses, most of the rest are T-62s, and T-90s stay in the 5-10% range.
2) T-90 losses are now exclusively T-90Ms, only 2 T-90As have been lost this year, the last in April. This reinforces my long held assumption that Russia has been upgrading there T-90As to T-90Ms, And probably means they are now few if any T-90As left, new T-90M production is probably back to 60-80 a year.
3) T-80 losses have not shown any big recent change, but Unmodernised T-80BV (Dark Blue) continue to become less common, and ether T-80BVM Orb 2022 or Orb 2022s of unknown (BV or BVM) modle, (yellow and light blue) together now make up over half the total.
1) Russian tank loss update, while most of our attention is on the stunning Ukraine offensive against Russia Oil refining; Russia continues to lose tank. Russia is still losing a lot of very old T-62 Tanks, but the proportion is down over the last 2 months.
2) this striking chart is perhaps the big news from this months Russi losses, it shows the ratio of Tanks to IFVs, we have gone form 2-3 IFV/APCs for each tank lost to less than half an IFV/APC to each tank lost.
3) That's because the number of IFV/APC losses, (yellow) has dropped dramatically. Transport losses however are up, and most others are about normal for this point in the month.
1) Dramatic change in the make up of Russia losses this month. A big drop in the proportion (and absotte numbers) of IFV/APC losses (Light Blue) and rise in the proportion of Truck losses (light yellow near top) also some increase in tank proportion (dark yellow at bottom)
2) Here in table format, only 6 IFV/APCs (yellow) but 37 transport (orange).
I dont know whats driving this change, but I think it's too large to be random. my first thought/theory is that it might be related to the 'point' system that Ukrainian Drone forces operate under.
3) Here is a graph format, comparing tank to IFV/APC visually confirmed losses you can see the full and dramatic change. This graph is 'mid point of 3 month average' except September 25.
Normally there are 2-3 IFV/APCs for every tank lost, now it's the other way around.