Updated Russian tank loss charts, Starting with Losses by type. See how the T-80 losses peaked in June at 63.9% of all tank losses, but we are now 3 months into a steep decline. My theory: they have run out of reparable T-80s.
Here is the data table for the above graph, There will be 4 more Tank Charts T-90, T-80, T-72, and all, by variant, each with tables to follow. Hope people appreciate I've now got the Y assis going to 100%
T-90 losses, As noted in the Perun video the T-90A has almost disappeared, even though there are only 33 confirmed losses. it also feels like just a single batch of T-90Ss 'export version got to the front line and they are all gone now.
And agine the data table for the above graph.
T-80 losses note the very different outcomes for the 3 types, T-80U started big, but with no new production and no reserves it decreased and then disappeared. Then the old T-80BV lots in storage so it goes from small to the biggest proportion, and T-80BVM, which is still in production, but no reserves, remains a constant ish 10-20% of each month's losses.
And the data table for T-80 losses, not for the table above I have grouped some of the T-80U subtypes together.
And here is the T-72 graph, with all 10 types on. I don't see much of a pattern suggesting that T-72s are coming from storage in roughly the proportions that they started at, Note the T-72B3 Orb 2016 and 2022 are both being manufactured now but are upgrades, from older models.
And the data table for the above. one more tank graph to go.
And below is a Tank graph grouped in a way that I think makes sense and seems to be popular on Twitter. I will also tag on a comment with a handful of the other graphs I do.
My tank graphs get most of the likes and retweets, but some of the other Equipemt loss graphs are I think informative, here are some examples, If you like them please 'follow' me for more.
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1) With so much news coming from the war, this almost feels redundant, but here is my update🧵on Russia Tank losses, again T-80s losses out numbered T-72s, but not by as much as the last few months, T-90 losses are stedy, but T-62 Losses are down.
2) The first graph does not include 'Unknown Tank' which have been increasing and were over 25% in May (Black in this graph) this adds an extra layer of uncertainty on this, but I will persevere anyway.
3) T-90 losses, Q2 has so far only been T-90Ms. I don't know how many T-90As are left, but I suspect its very few now, the rest having been destroyed or upgraded to T-90M, but possibly some that have been forgotten.
1) The very old Russian BRM-1(K) are still rare, but becoming more common amongst Russian Losses.
So what does this mean? 🧵
2) They are still less than 2% of all Russian IFV/APC losses, but they are now over 20% of BMP-1 Based vehicles losses.
Note: I have left of the first couple of months of the war, as these months had a lot of LNR/DNR losses and were untypical.
3) So what is the BRD-1(K)? it is a soviet design reconsases vheale, based on the BMP-1. Built between 1973 and 1988, it had extra surveillance and communication equipment compared to the BMP-1 but less ammunition for its main gun, and didn't carry infantry.
1) Russian IFV/APC types that are still IN PRODUCTION are becoming rarer. After a peek in November 2024, they have dropped below 20% for some reason. a short 🧵
2) If we look at losses for the first week of April, they are down to just 2.2% of the total IFV/APC losses. I've added this week to the graph and posted here, but posting it in the second tweet in🧵so I'm not being too sensational.
3) There are 3 types known to be in production, the BMP-3,BMD-4 and BTR-82, plotting these losses against each other looks like this, the BMP-3 are a shrinking proportion of a shrinking pie.
1) Ukrainian keeps destroying Russian Tanks, so I'm going to keep on making graphs and 🧵 of destroyed Russian tanks.
Russian T-80s recorded the highest proportion ever 54%, and T-72 recorded the smallest ever 22%.
2) The T-80s are the most significant type, so I will start with them. T-80U losses have been minimal for two years now, but there seems to be a relatively consistent rate of change to the Orb 2022 variants. If this continues, then all the old ones will be gone around Jul/Aug.
3) T-90 losses remain bout 7% of the total. So fr this quarter they have all been the T-90M variant.
I think 'most', by which I mean almost all of the 'New T-90Ms', have been upgraded T-90a, not new builds, for the last two years, and now they're out of T-90a.
1) The makeup of Russian lost IFVs has shown a strange pattern recently. I don't know why, but the types still in production made up 25-30% of losses for most of the war, then that rose rapidly to about 40% in November, nd have now dropped to just 20%🧵
2) By types still in production, I mean the IFV BMP-3, the air mobile IFV BMP-3 and the wheeled IFV/PC crossover BTR-82.
I have not included the BTR-MDM, as there are conflicting counts regarding whether it's in production, but with only 42 losses total it won't change the graph.
3) Between November and February, the number of tracked vs. wheeled losses has increased each year, which could explain some of the change. However, it's more pronounced this year. This shows up in the first graph of new-build vs. old, which did not last a few years.
1) For the first time in two and a half years, Russia has not lost (Visually Confirmed) a single T-90 Tank for a whole month. (and only the second month of the war, after July 2022)
I think they are now very low on their best Main Battle Tank, in working condition. 🧵
2) Overall, Russia is only visually confirmed to have lost 151 T-90s, but a portion of the 333 'Unknown Tanks' will also be T-90s, and others will have been lost and not photographed. At any point in time, there will be some damaged tanks that will need repairs.
3) Russia claimed to have made 60 T-90Ms in 2021; this number might be accurate, but I suspect it includes many upgrades from T-90As.
They also claim to have increased production to 18 a month. To achieve anything close to this, All (or almost all) will have been upgraded.