1) Russian Visuly confirmed IFV/APC losses by type over the war.

It looks like 8-wheel BTR losses are a much smaller proportion of the total than usual, Reversing the trend of the last 10 months.

But this is almost certainly the mud season, 'Rasputitsa' and not a new trend. 2) I left December off the graphs and predicted a little differently. This showed what I think is the trend.

The top three IFV/APCs are still being made: BMP-3 (Dark Blue), BTR-82 (Green), and BMD-4M (Light Blue). However, the BTR-82 is increasing the most rapidly, suggesting it is being built in the largest numbers.

Meanwhile, the old BMP-1 and 2s (grey) are declining fastest, and MT-LBs are also declining more gradually, suggesting that supplies from the storage bases have decreased.

1) Russia has lost at least 3,251 Tanks (visually confirmed). This month, the old T-62s make up a record-high proportion of their losses. A 🧵about those losses, with a new and, I think, revealing graph from me. 2) Tanking about records, Russia is losing a record-high number of IFVs for each Tank it is losing. There could be a few reasons for this, including the fact that they don't have that many working tanks anymore. But more about that latter.

1) Russia has lost at least 3175 tanks in the war, (as visually confirmed by @Warpotting) This month is showing an unexpected (by me) drop in T-62 losses and a small rise in the proportion of T-90s. I suspect that this indicates Russia is using its best (better?) units in Kursk. 2) The loss ratio of Russian IFVs to Russian Tanks, has stabilized at 3.5 to 1. So the spike we witnessed in September was likely not an out-lyer. Perhaps this is the new normal now?

1) Russia has lost at least 6538 IFVs & APCs that have been Visually Confirmed by @WarSpotting There are a lot of different types of these, but if we split them up into those still being made, and those that can only be replaced by from storage, there is a big change happaning. 2) The percentage of IFV/APCs in production increased from 24.3% in April to 43.8% in Nov. Showing a steady but significant change. This could be because:

a) Significant increase in production of the new types
b) Singificate slow down in reactivation of older types in storage.

1) Ukraine is continuing to fight the good fight for its freedom, and by extension, freedom around the world. So, I'm going to continue my updates of Russian losses, Starting with Tanks. A🧵 2) This month has not seen dramatic change, but there are trends,

a) T-90s, the only new build, remain small, and maybe even have a slight decline.
b) T-80s are now firmly the most common type, 10% more common than T-72s.
c) The share of T-62s seems to be now declining.

1) Russia has been Visually Confirmed by @warspotting to have lost at least 3133 Tanks, and it's time for the end-of-month Update. 🧵 Overall Oct was very similar to Sep, most notably the proportion of T-62 has stopped rising. 2) I don't know why T-62s have stopped increasing, perhaps it's random, or maybe they have now used up all the 'easily to repair' T-62s. Looking at the variants of T-62 does not show a lot, most are still T-62Ms (grey) with slightly more T-62M Obr 2022s than before. (yellow)

1) Russia's IFV/APC losses normally run at about 2 for every 1 tank that Russia loses. However, that has changed over the last five months, and it's now almost 4 to 1. I don't know why this is, but here are some observations and thoughts. 🧵 2) First I should say the above graph uses the midpoint of each 3-month period, i.e. Feb is, Jan, Feb, & Mar, Mar is Feb, Mar and Apr. The exception is in Oct 2024, which is just the first 16 days of October, so not a big sample, but as it's flowing the trend I've added it.

1) The Military Think tank RUSI, recently released a Report on Russian Armes production, overall it's good and worth a read. However, I think it's possible to be a bit more precise/accurate and reveal something RUSI does not mention. 🧵 static.rusi.org/methodology-de… 2) The RUSI Report page 13, paragraph 2: 85% of Russian Tank and IFV/APC production is from storage. which means 15% is 'new build'. So, I divided Russian equipment losses into those still in production and those not.

1) Russia is visually confirmed to have lost 6,065 IFV and APCs (by @WarSpotting ) I have created (re-created) this graph of their losses, by type, each month as a % of the total. It's a bit confusing so here is a thread, braking it down a bit, to make more sense. 2) In the first graph, I have used each month, for the next few I use a 'mid-point 3-month rolling average' So that March 23, is the Feb, Mar, Apr, added together, and April is Mar, Apr, May, and so on. Except Feb 22, is just Feb and Sep 24, is Aug, Sep and the first days of Oct

1) Russia has lost at least 918 T-80s, which have been visually confirmed by @WarSpotting and probably more. Here is a thread, with graphs, looking at how the different types of T-80 losses have changed over time, probably in more detail than any reasonable person would want. 2) first to set the scene here are all Russia's tank losses, T-80s are in blue, and started at less than 25% of Russian tank losses, which has changed over the war, generally increasing at now makeup over 40%, in contrast to the T-72s which have gone the other way.

1) Russia's old BMP-1s are disappearing, at least from the visually confirmed Losses recorded by @Warspotting. From over 40% of total BMPs to less than 18% @WarSpotting 2) If we add the losses of this month 'to date' to that graph the decline looks even more dramatic. but that is putting 14-day losses on a graph that is otherwise a 3-month average so it's not really valid, just a possible indication of direction.

1) Russia Artillery losses as recorded by @AndrewPerpetua show a dramatic change over the last 10 months. Towed Artillery, goes from under 1/3 or almost 3/4 of the total in that time. 2) This is the equivalent graph that I made from Warspotting data. I am not saying one set of data is better than the other, they are just different, Andrews is a much larger data set, and amongst other things includes damaged.

1) Russia has now lost a total of 51 Tanks that can very badly be defined as 'Turtal Tanks' and they use a range of tank types to make them. 'Turtal tank' is a nickname that I am using, but there is not a universally recognised description. A Thread: 2) I am using @WarSpotting data, which doesn't have a category for 'Turtal tank' but by selecting Tank and then choosing 'show only' Cope Cage' and 'Improvided', you get this list. But there is a blurry line between a big improvised cope cage and a full Turtal Tank, so this could be overcounting, by many definitions.

ukr.warspotting.net/search/?bellig…

1) This month so far, over a quarter of all Lost Russian tanks are the very old T-62 Type! (visually confirmed by @WarSpotting ) 26.5% In this graph I have added this month's losses to a 3-month rolling average by type. 2) Looking at the variants of Russian T-62 lost doesn't seem to show much, other than originally they were mostly T-62Ms, and are now more of a mixed bag of everything.

1) The MT-LB is Russia's second most numerous IFV/APC. @CovertCabal has just released a YouTube video showing how close Russia's storage bases are to Running out. I thought I would do a Thread about the video, the MT-LB and Russia's losses of them. 2) The Vidio is largely based on a comprehensive count of Russias Storge facilities by @Jonpy99 and numbers/details can be found on his 'Google sheet', most of the photos are from the last 3 months, but some small bases have older photos. docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

1) Russia is Visually Confirmed to have lost 5,544 Infantry Fighting Vehcales and Armerd Personal Careas, IFV/APC. Here is what those losses by type look like over time. A short thread on what's changing. 2) All my data is from @warspotting my graphs use the information from their website, and my graphs are different types of equipment % of that month's losses, this enables us to look for changes in the make-up of the Russian equipment.

1) The Economist magazine has published an article about Russia running low on military equipment, To my surprise they mention me as an open-source analysis. So I thought I would do a thread about it. economist.com/europe/2024/07… 2) The main thrust of the article is that Russian stocks of stored equipment are deep, but not bottomless. And I would agree with that sentiment. I will go further and say that some of the best equipment is near the end of stored equipment.

1) Russia's main tracked IFVs are the BMPs, there are 3 basic types, and I take their losses over time from @WarSpotting data, but each of the 3 types has several variants, and tracking those variant losses shows 3 different patterns. A short Thred 1/n 2) First, looking at the BMP-1 is the simplest, most of the losses 80-90% were the base modal of BMP-1 (orange). And that has remained so throughout the war. there has been a steady but small number of BMP-1AMs. Recently we have seen a few of the new upgraded BMP-1 765 SB3KDZ, (grey) but very low numbers for now.

All of Russia's 5439 AFV/APC/IFV losses over the war, by type. as visually confirmed by @WarSpotting note the strange decline of BMP-1s in the last month, mostly replaced by BMP-2s, It is too soon to tell if it is a trend, but maybe. 1/n Simplifying the date by grouping them together, and adding a 3-month average, and you get this graph. The airmobile have been rare after the first few months of the war, but are now very uncommon. Im surprised that MT-LBs have become more common in last few months. 2/n

For some reason, the losses of Russia's old BMP-1 have declined for 2 months. both in absolute terms and especially as a % of total losses. (BMP-1s are dark blue at the bottom of the chart) some thought is in a Thred 1/n The BMP-1 is an Infantry Fighting Vehicle IFV. able to carry some infantry and has a turret with a small gun. first made in 1966, approximately 20,000 were made in the Soviet Union. It was succeeded by the BMP-2 first made in 1979, which is similar but with a lot of improvements.

Russia has now lost 139 very old T-62 Tanks, Visually Confirmed by @WarSpotting There are 6 different variants Lost but the T-62M is the most common. There are 2 'new' variants the M Obr 2022 and MV Obr 2022, (light blue and green on the graph) which are slowly becoming more common, I don't know much about these updates, but I think they have some ERA armour added.