1) Russian Artillery losses have changed, for most of the war, there have been far more SPGs than Towed artillery, that started to change earlier this year and now its about 2/3 Towed guns. 2) Also the calibers of the lost Russian artillery has also changed, at the start about 2/3 of the losses were the standard 152mm guns Dark Blue). that has steadily decreased, and now represent just 11% of the total, mostly displaced by 122mm.

1) There has been a notable increase of Russian T-54/55 destroyed recently as a share of total Russian Tank losses as recorded by @WarSpotting while still modist, only 4 tanks, it's still a noteworthy increase, a short 🧵 2) There have been 88 total Russian tank losses over 3 months, but of these a quarter 22 have been of Unknown Type. Therefor, of the 66 lost tanks of Known types, the 4 T-54/55s represent 6% A small share, but not negligible, as they have been up to now.

1) More Russian IFV/APC losses added in the last 24 hours (16) to @WarSpotting than happened all of September combined. (14) 2) I don't have any inside knowledge of Russian tactics, and 'loss analysis' always has limitations, so recognising those limitations, I'm not going to say why this is. But those that are suggesting that Russia might have stopped supporting small assaults with IFVs and instead are now doing small numbers of larger assaults, might be right.

1) A 🧵on Russian tank losses. In September russian losses returned to a more normal distribution, T-80s and T-72 each make up about 1/3 of losses, most of the rest are T-62s, and T-90s stay in the 5-10% range. 2) T-90 losses are now exclusively T-90Ms, only 2 T-90As have been lost this year, the last in April. This reinforces my long held assumption that Russia has been upgrading there T-90As to T-90Ms, And probably means they are now few if any T-90As left, new T-90M production is probably back to 60-80 a year.

1) Russian tank loss update, while most of our attention is on the stunning Ukraine offensive against Russia Oil refining; Russia continues to lose tank. Russia is still losing a lot of very old T-62 Tanks, but the proportion is down over the last 2 months. 2) this striking chart is perhaps the big news from this months Russi losses, it shows the ratio of Tanks to IFVs, we have gone form 2-3 IFV/APCs for each tank lost to less than half an IFV/APC to each tank lost.

1) Dramatic change in the make up of Russia losses this month. A big drop in the proportion (and absotte numbers) of IFV/APC losses (Light Blue) and rise in the proportion of Truck losses (light yellow near top) also some increase in tank proportion (dark yellow at bottom) 2) Here in table format, only 6 IFV/APCs (yellow) but 37 transport (orange).

I dont know whats driving this change, but I think it's too large to be random. my first thought/theory is that it might be related to the 'point' system that Ukrainian Drone forces operate under.

1) The big story in Russian Tank losses, Is the decline in absolute numbers, (more on that in a bit) but there is also a significant change in the types lost. (Data from @WarSpotting ) with most of the decline happening in T-80s. 🧵 2) This graph is the same data as the first graph, but without the '3 month averaging'. T-62s and T-90s look like significant increase but their numbers are stedy, T-72s have declined proportionately to the overall reduction so there share is about the same.

1) Over half of the Visually confirmed and identified (by @WarSpotting ) Russia tank losses this month are T-62s!

That is to say of the 12 Russian tank losses in July, 9 can be identified by type, 2 T-90s, T-72s and 5 T-62s.

There are caveats: 🧵 2)
a) With only 12 tank losses this is not a statistically significant sample.
b) Even if continued continued for many months, it does not necessarily mean that the majority of russian tanks are T-62s, it may be that older tanks are more vulnerable so lost more.

1) With so much news coming from the war, this almost feels redundant, but here is my update🧵on Russia Tank losses, again T-80s losses out numbered T-72s, but not by as much as the last few months, T-90 losses are stedy, but T-62 Losses are down. 2) The first graph does not include 'Unknown Tank' which have been increasing and were over 25% in May (Black in this graph) this adds an extra layer of uncertainty on this, but I will persevere anyway.

1) The very old Russian BRM-1(K) are still rare, but becoming more common amongst Russian Losses.

So what does this mean? 🧵 2) They are still less than 2% of all Russian IFV/APC losses, but they are now over 20% of BMP-1 Based vehicles losses.

Note: I have left of the first couple of months of the war, as these months had a lot of LNR/DNR losses and were untypical.

1) Russian IFV/APC types that are still IN PRODUCTION are becoming rarer. After a peek in November 2024, they have dropped below 20% for some reason. a short 🧵 2) If we look at losses for the first week of April, they are down to just 2.2% of the total IFV/APC losses. I've added this week to the graph and posted here, but posting it in the second tweet in🧵so I'm not being too sensational.

1) Ukrainian keeps destroying Russian Tanks, so I'm going to keep on making graphs and 🧵 of destroyed Russian tanks.

Russian T-80s recorded the highest proportion ever 54%, and T-72 recorded the smallest ever 22%. 2) The T-80s are the most significant type, so I will start with them. T-80U losses have been minimal for two years now, but there seems to be a relatively consistent rate of change to the Orb 2022 variants. If this continues, then all the old ones will be gone around Jul/Aug.

1) The makeup of Russian lost IFVs has shown a strange pattern recently. I don't know why, but the types still in production made up 25-30% of losses for most of the war, then that rose rapidly to about 40% in November, nd have now dropped to just 20%🧵 2) By types still in production, I mean the IFV BMP-3, the air mobile IFV BMP-3 and the wheeled IFV/PC crossover BTR-82.

I have not included the BTR-MDM, as there are conflicting counts regarding whether it's in production, but with only 42 losses total it won't change the graph.

1) For the first time in two and a half years, Russia has not lost (Visually Confirmed) a single T-90 Tank for a whole month. (and only the second month of the war, after July 2022)

I think they are now very low on their best Main Battle Tank, in working condition. 🧵 2) Overall, Russia is only visually confirmed to have lost 151 T-90s, but a portion of the 333 'Unknown Tanks' will also be T-90s, and others will have been lost and not photographed. At any point in time, there will be some damaged tanks that will need repairs.

1) Russian Visuly confirmed IFV/APC losses by type over the war.

It looks like 8-wheel BTR losses are a much smaller proportion of the total than usual, Reversing the trend of the last 10 months.

But this is almost certainly the mud season, 'Rasputitsa' and not a new trend. 2) I left December off the graphs and predicted a little differently. This showed what I think is the trend.

The top three IFV/APCs are still being made: BMP-3 (Dark Blue), BTR-82 (Green), and BMD-4M (Light Blue). However, the BTR-82 is increasing the most rapidly, suggesting it is being built in the largest numbers.

Meanwhile, the old BMP-1 and 2s (grey) are declining fastest, and MT-LBs are also declining more gradually, suggesting that supplies from the storage bases have decreased.

1) Russia has lost at least 3,251 Tanks (visually confirmed). This month, the old T-62s make up a record-high proportion of their losses. A 🧵about those losses, with a new and, I think, revealing graph from me. 2) Tanking about records, Russia is losing a record-high number of IFVs for each Tank it is losing. There could be a few reasons for this, including the fact that they don't have that many working tanks anymore. But more about that latter.

1) Russia has lost at least 3175 tanks in the war, (as visually confirmed by @Warpotting) This month is showing an unexpected (by me) drop in T-62 losses and a small rise in the proportion of T-90s. I suspect that this indicates Russia is using its best (better?) units in Kursk. 2) The loss ratio of Russian IFVs to Russian Tanks, has stabilized at 3.5 to 1. So the spike we witnessed in September was likely not an out-lyer. Perhaps this is the new normal now?

1) Russia has lost at least 6538 IFVs & APCs that have been Visually Confirmed by @WarSpotting There are a lot of different types of these, but if we split them up into those still being made, and those that can only be replaced by from storage, there is a big change happaning. 2) The percentage of IFV/APCs in production increased from 24.3% in April to 43.8% in Nov. Showing a steady but significant change. This could be because:

a) Significant increase in production of the new types
b) Singificate slow down in reactivation of older types in storage.

1) Ukraine is continuing to fight the good fight for its freedom, and by extension, freedom around the world. So, I'm going to continue my updates of Russian losses, Starting with Tanks. A🧵 2) This month has not seen dramatic change, but there are trends,

a) T-90s, the only new build, remain small, and maybe even have a slight decline.
b) T-80s are now firmly the most common type, 10% more common than T-72s.
c) The share of T-62s seems to be now declining.

1) Russia has been Visually Confirmed by @warspotting to have lost at least 3133 Tanks, and it's time for the end-of-month Update. 🧵 Overall Oct was very similar to Sep, most notably the proportion of T-62 has stopped rising. 2) I don't know why T-62s have stopped increasing, perhaps it's random, or maybe they have now used up all the 'easily to repair' T-62s. Looking at the variants of T-62 does not show a lot, most are still T-62Ms (grey) with slightly more T-62M Obr 2022s than before. (yellow)

1) Russia's IFV/APC losses normally run at about 2 for every 1 tank that Russia loses. However, that has changed over the last five months, and it's now almost 4 to 1. I don't know why this is, but here are some observations and thoughts. 🧵 2) First I should say the above graph uses the midpoint of each 3-month period, i.e. Feb is, Jan, Feb, & Mar, Mar is Feb, Mar and Apr. The exception is in Oct 2024, which is just the first 16 days of October, so not a big sample, but as it's flowing the trend I've added it.