1) Russia is visually confirmed to have lost 6,065 IFV and APCs (by @WarSpotting ) I have created (re-created) this graph of their losses, by type, each month as a % of the total. It's a bit confusing so here is a thread, braking it down a bit, to make more sense. 2) In the first graph, I have used each month, for the next few I use a 'mid-point 3-month rolling average' So that March 23, is the Feb, Mar, Apr, added together, and April is Mar, Apr, May, and so on. Except Feb 22, is just Feb and Sep 24, is Aug, Sep and the first days of Oct

1) Russia has lost at least 918 T-80s, which have been visually confirmed by @WarSpotting and probably more. Here is a thread, with graphs, looking at how the different types of T-80 losses have changed over time, probably in more detail than any reasonable person would want. 2) first to set the scene here are all Russia's tank losses, T-80s are in blue, and started at less than 25% of Russian tank losses, which has changed over the war, generally increasing at now makeup over 40%, in contrast to the T-72s which have gone the other way.

1) Russia's old BMP-1s are disappearing, at least from the visually confirmed Losses recorded by @Warspotting. From over 40% of total BMPs to less than 18% @WarSpotting 2) If we add the losses of this month 'to date' to that graph the decline looks even more dramatic. but that is putting 14-day losses on a graph that is otherwise a 3-month average so it's not really valid, just a possible indication of direction.

1) Russia Artillery losses as recorded by @AndrewPerpetua show a dramatic change over the last 10 months. Towed Artillery, goes from under 1/3 or almost 3/4 of the total in that time. 2) This is the equivalent graph that I made from Warspotting data. I am not saying one set of data is better than the other, they are just different, Andrews is a much larger data set, and amongst other things includes damaged.

1) Russia has now lost a total of 51 Tanks that can very badly be defined as 'Turtal Tanks' and they use a range of tank types to make them. 'Turtal tank' is a nickname that I am using, but there is not a universally recognised description. A Thread: 2) I am using @WarSpotting data, which doesn't have a category for 'Turtal tank' but by selecting Tank and then choosing 'show only' Cope Cage' and 'Improvided', you get this list. But there is a blurry line between a big improvised cope cage and a full Turtal Tank, so this could be overcounting, by many definitions.

ukr.warspotting.net/search/?bellig…

1) This month so far, over a quarter of all Lost Russian tanks are the very old T-62 Type! (visually confirmed by @WarSpotting ) 26.5% In this graph I have added this month's losses to a 3-month rolling average by type. 2) Looking at the variants of Russian T-62 lost doesn't seem to show much, other than originally they were mostly T-62Ms, and are now more of a mixed bag of everything.

1) The MT-LB is Russia's second most numerous IFV/APC. @CovertCabal has just released a YouTube video showing how close Russia's storage bases are to Running out. I thought I would do a Thread about the video, the MT-LB and Russia's losses of them. 2) The Vidio is largely based on a comprehensive count of Russias Storge facilities by @Jonpy99 and numbers/details can be found on his 'Google sheet', most of the photos are from the last 3 months, but some small bases have older photos. docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

1) Russia is Visually Confirmed to have lost 5,544 Infantry Fighting Vehcales and Armerd Personal Careas, IFV/APC. Here is what those losses by type look like over time. A short thread on what's changing. 2) All my data is from @warspotting my graphs use the information from their website, and my graphs are different types of equipment % of that month's losses, this enables us to look for changes in the make-up of the Russian equipment.

1) The Economist magazine has published an article about Russia running low on military equipment, To my surprise they mention me as an open-source analysis. So I thought I would do a thread about it. economist.com/europe/2024/07… 2) The main thrust of the article is that Russian stocks of stored equipment are deep, but not bottomless. And I would agree with that sentiment. I will go further and say that some of the best equipment is near the end of stored equipment.

1) Russia's main tracked IFVs are the BMPs, there are 3 basic types, and I take their losses over time from @WarSpotting data, but each of the 3 types has several variants, and tracking those variant losses shows 3 different patterns. A short Thred 1/n 2) First, looking at the BMP-1 is the simplest, most of the losses 80-90% were the base modal of BMP-1 (orange). And that has remained so throughout the war. there has been a steady but small number of BMP-1AMs. Recently we have seen a few of the new upgraded BMP-1 765 SB3KDZ, (grey) but very low numbers for now.

All of Russia's 5439 AFV/APC/IFV losses over the war, by type. as visually confirmed by @WarSpotting note the strange decline of BMP-1s in the last month, mostly replaced by BMP-2s, It is too soon to tell if it is a trend, but maybe. 1/n Simplifying the date by grouping them together, and adding a 3-month average, and you get this graph. The airmobile have been rare after the first few months of the war, but are now very uncommon. Im surprised that MT-LBs have become more common in last few months. 2/n

For some reason, the losses of Russia's old BMP-1 have declined for 2 months. both in absolute terms and especially as a % of total losses. (BMP-1s are dark blue at the bottom of the chart) some thought is in a Thred 1/n The BMP-1 is an Infantry Fighting Vehicle IFV. able to carry some infantry and has a turret with a small gun. first made in 1966, approximately 20,000 were made in the Soviet Union. It was succeeded by the BMP-2 first made in 1979, which is similar but with a lot of improvements.

Russia has now lost 139 very old T-62 Tanks, Visually Confirmed by @WarSpotting There are 6 different variants Lost but the T-62M is the most common. There are 2 'new' variants the M Obr 2022 and MV Obr 2022, (light blue and green on the graph) which are slowly becoming more common, I don't know much about these updates, but I think they have some ERA armour added.

Russia has lost at least 983 MT-LBs, visually confirmed by @Warspotting Here is a breakdown of the variants being lost. Note the MT-LBVM(K) varnat which was about 40% at the start is almost extinct now. 1/n The MT-LBVM(K) variant, does not seem to be that much of an improvement from the original MT-LB. But, its almost disappearance from about June 2023, does suggest that most of the original Vehacals in the Russian army had been destroyed by then. 2/n

Russia has lost at least 966 pieces of Tube artillery (704 SPGs and 262 Towed Guns) when grouped by calibre and laced on a graph this is what we see. Standard 152mm (boring) are shrinking. I normally get more Pushback on this graph than any other I do, So a thred to explain. 1/n Visually Confirmed Losses of Artillay are much below, the Ukraian claims, and the differences are a lot larger than Tanks IFVs and so on. This will largely be because Artilay is behind the front lines so is less likely to be photographed by Ukrainian troops.

Russia is visually confirmed to have lost over 2,700 Tanks, including 53 in June. And T-72s once the mainstay of the Russian Army seem to be a declining share of their force 1/n. The T-72s are bule at the base, I placed there there to most clearly show their change, other tanks are in age order from the bottom. and the first and last month are not 3-month average but the rest it. now a look at those tanks. 2/n

The BMP-3 is Russia's best IFV and one of the few vehicle types still in production, (as opposed to modernisation) They have lost 412 of them so far. And the pattern is different to the BMP-1 or BMP-2, 1/n The Base modal BMP-3 does not have a separate name, just BMP-3, 90% of the losses were this type at the start, but that has been decreasing, mostly being replaced by BMP-3 SB6-2KPs which are now showing as 60% of all losses. 2/n

Russia has lost at least 1341 BMP-2s in this war. More than any other IFV, APC and now more than T-72 Tanks, (or any tank type) Most of those losses are the BMP-2(K) But Russia does/did have a program to upgrade them to SB3KDZs. 1/n The upgrade program seems to have been pushed through because we observed some BMP-2s arrive that had been modified to take the extra armour for the SB3KDZ, but without the actual armour. 2/n

Ukrian has destroyed (visually Confirmed) over 200 Russian IFV/APCs in May. making it the 4th month in a row to achieve that. worth noting that between Nov 2022, and Feb this year, there was only one month with over 200, (Oct 23, with 202) 1/n Full table of Russia losses, the data is based on Losses visually confirmed and on the @warspotting website. I put them in a table like this to make graphs in a way that I am better able to see, but all praise to the Warspotting team who do proses the photos/vidiows 2/n

Russia has lost (visually confirmed) 112 Tanks in May. There has not been any dramatic change in the pattern of these losses, but some trends are continuing, T-90 and T-62 losses have both slowly risen for 5 months now; T-72 and T-80 are both slowly falling as a % of the total. 1/5 Overall there have only been 120 T-90 losses so I use a Quaterly Bar chart to visualise them. It's mostly T-90Ms now, though there have been a few T-90S losses too. 2/5

Russian artillery losses by calibre, plotted over the war. Standard 152mm (orange) at the bottom, clearly showing the decline from almost 70% of all Russian artillery at the start to about 40% in Sep 2023, soon after the NK ammunition arrived and it's been reasonably steady since then. also visible are the declines in 240mm(Gray) and Giastint-152mm(Blue) while there also seems to be a rise in 122mm (green) possibly supplied by NK? 1/4 Here is the graph of just Russian SPG, losses.