Thread by @TheStudyofWar

#Russian forces defending in western #Zaporizhia Oblast since the start of the counteroffensive have done so largely without operational-level unit rotations and have likely suffered compounding losses. 🧵(1/9) isw.pub/UkrWar091823

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1703952269794799639

2/ Elements of the Russian 42nd Motorized Rifle Division’s 71st, 70th, and 291st Motorized Rifle Regiments routinely repelled Ukrainian assaults and engaged in various “combat clashes," during the first phase of the counteroffensive from June to August 2023.

3/ In mid-to-late August, Ukrainian forces began breaking through the initial Russian defensive layer that these elements of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division had spent considerable amounts of manpower, personnel, and effort to hold.

4/ Russian reporting and footage suggest that many of these elements of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division have since withdrawn to positions behind a subsequent Russian defensive layer between Verbove and Solodka Balka and now mainly shell advancing Ukrainian units.

5/ The absence of recent reports and footage of these elements participating in combat engagements in western Zaporizhia Oblast suggests that casualties sustained during the first phases of the Ukrainian counteroffensive rendered them combat ineffective. isw.pub/UkrWar091823

6/ Elements of the 70th Motorized Rifle Regiment reportedly temporarily withdrew to a rear area during the UKR breakthrough and returned to frontline positions in early September...

7 ...suggesting that Ukrainian advances had degraded this unit enough to compel the Russian command to give it time to refit in the rear — which would be one of the very few unit rotations ISW has observed on this sector of the front.

8/ Elements of the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade, which also held forward positions at the initial Russian defensive layer during the earlier phases of the counteroffensive, similarly appear to be deployed further behind the defensive layer ahead of the current Ukraine advance.

9/ Elements of the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade reportedly engaged in close combat during the Ukrainian push through Robotyne (10km south of Orikhiv), and Russian milbloggers maintain that some elements of the unit hold positions near the southern outskirts of Robotyne.