Thread by @Mij_Europe

There's a lot of negativity about @Keir_Starmer trip to Paris today to see @EmmanuelMacron. A lot of “@UKLabour is delusional & don't understand EU” kind of thing. That it's all pointless given “no CU, no SM” redlines. That's premature. There's also a positive case to be made 1/

Firstly, beyond what the UK “can offer” EU, the value & importance of
more consistent, more serious & more forward-leaning engagement shouldn't be underestimated. There has been a total lack of UK political leadership vis EU & if Starmer delivers that it will build goodwill 2/

Second, it's good @Keir_Starmer is investing & bolstering his connection with Macron. UK/France relations were by far most damaged by @BorisJohnson & @trussliz. The party political links are also weaker, say, compared to Germany. So symbolism of visit won't be lost on French 3/

It's true @UKLabour isn't going to redraw its redlines on CU & SM - yet. But it would be foolish to bet against that line changing over medium to longer term, or extrapolate from what Starmer is saying today. A lot will depend on variables that'll only come into play later on 4/

Like public opinion vis rejoin, the growth outlook, the strength of Labour's majority/its polling, the state of Tories after their election defeat & time it takes them to recover, debate/priorities in EU etc. What Starmer is actually saying is prob the least imp thing to watch 5/

Ruling out CU/SM will arguably also give a Labour Govt political cover to do a lot else & quickly. As there's a lot UKG can offer: institutionalised foreign & security policy co-operation, fish, serious & substantive engagement w @EmmanuelMacron “European Political Community” 6/

An acknowledgement that reducing trade friction = alignment/rule taking; recognition that migration deal = co-op at EU level on a returns agreement. Of course details will take time. But Tories simply refused to accept these realities. That killed incentives for EU to engage 7/

There's also a lot of determinism about EU position in 1, 2 or even 5y time. But fact is EU is less worried today about a member state copying UK - as Brexit has been such an obv shitshow - compared to 2016. Sure, cakeism won't be allowed. But political reality IS diff today 8/

As I've previously said on here many times, Ukraine's accession has the potential to completely transform the way EU deals with aspiring members. That in turn could create new possibilities for co-op & association - even with third countries - that aren't imaginable today 9/

Lastly, Starmer and Macron are likely to be quite (ideologically) compatible and it's wrong to suggest the meeting has no importance to Macron: for him, it will also be a way of strenghening the centrist and progressive forces in Europe against the reactionary, far right 10/

So there's a lot that's in flux & a lot that has changed and will change (including EU's leadership after elections next June). With engaged UK pol leadership, there's a case to be made that @UKLabour overall approach to EU will be greater than sum of its individual parts

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