Pekka Kallioniemi Profile picture
Sep 20, 2023 22 tweets 10 min read Read on X
In today's #vatniksoup, I'll introduce a Russian political scientist and head of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, Sergey Karaganov. He's best-known for his imperialistic policies since the early 1990's, and for calling the destruction of the West and of Ukraine.

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Karaganov created a doctrine carrying his name in the early 90's. The basic idea of the doctrine is that Russia should always protect, even by force, the ethnic Russian population in other countries. In the beginning, it was mostly targeted at the Baltic states.

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He's also a strong proponent of Eurasianism, and argues that Russia and China should cooperate economically to triumph over the Western regions. Basically, his views were the precedent of the BRICS agreement. He considers China as Russia's closest
ally.

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Sergey's policies and views are extremely hawkish. He's called Russia a "genetically authoritarian power", and claimed that Russia's main foreign policy goal is to force its dominance on the globe and break the security order put in place after the end of Cold War in 1991.

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After Russia launched its full-scale invasion in Ukraine in Feb 2022, Karaganov stated that "The process of restoring Russian statehood, Russian influence, Russian power, which had been going on for quite a long time, had simply come to the surface."

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Already in 2014, he warned that Russia may attack Ukraine, and that "hell would break out" unless Ukraine stayed out of NATO and if the Russian-speaking regions in eastern and southern Ukraine are not granted broad autonomy.

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Apparently Karaganov at some point supported the idea of Russia joining NATO, as in 2019 interview he claimed that leaving Russia out was "one of the worst mistakes in political history" and that by doing this the West would eventually "sacrifice Ukraine".

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He formulated many of the core ideas leading to Russia's invasion in Feb 2022. Right before the attack, he declared that the "situation is so dire that war is inevitable" and that Russia could only achieve its goals by military force.

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In the same article, he stated how Russia had no economic, political, cultural or ideological benefits the could offer to Ukraine, and that Russia's neighbors saw the West offering more attractive political and economic models. Finally, someone in Russia speaks the truth!

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For the Russian elites, he's called the war in Ukraine an "existential war", and declared that Ukraine's leadership should be changed to "pro-Russian government" and that there should be "real security" for the "Donbas republics".

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He's claimed that the ongoing war will be used to "restructure Russian elite and Russian society", pushing out the non-patriotic elements from the elite & making the country more militant-based and national-based.Maybe that's why that old drunk Medvedev is being so hawkish?
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He's said that Russia's "demilitarization" of Ukraine consists of complete destruction of Ukrainian military forces, and that after this Ukrainians "will become much more peaceful and friendly to us." He's compared the situation to what Russia did previously in Chechnya.

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In his fantasies, Russia would cause the complete disintegration of Ukraine. He's said that "It is possible that something may go to Russia, something to Hungary, something to Poland, and something may remain a formally independent Ukrainian state."

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In Jun 2023, Karaganov called for the use nuclear weapons against some NATO member states in Europe. He said that if Russia were to nuke, say Poznan, the US would stay away from the conflict to save their own cities, and that "the Global South would feel satisfaction from..
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...the defeat of their former oppressors." In the end of Aug 2023, Karaganov among other Russian political scientists published a report called "Problems and Lessons of the Recent History of Russian Foreign Policy (and Possibilities for Correction)". In this report,...

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...they advised Kremlin to nullify all nuclear weapon control treaties, to terminate OSCE membership and scrap the treaty on nuclear non-proliferation (NPT). It also suggests the use of nuclear weapons against NATO countries. The report encouraged Russian authorities...

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...to accelerate infrastructure projects in the eastern Russia and in Siberia. Karaganov et al. also call for exploiting Ukraine and use its resources. According to them, Ukrainian POWs should be used as forced labor to work on various infrastructure projects, and 1-2...

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million Ukrainians should be forcefully deported to the new Siberian settlements. Then comes the most absurd and barbaric part: Karaganov et al. want to turn Ukraine into barren, de-populated buffer zone against the Western states. After Ukraine has been occupied,...

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...its infrastructure should be - according to this group of maniacs - completely destroyed. This would include the destruction of its road and rail network, energy production, industry, and all large settlements.

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The goal of this would be to deprive Ukraine's possibility to exist as a state and make it an agrarian outpost.

They also claim that this would make Ukraine "uninteresting to the West," and based on the West's slow arms deliveries, this may already be the case.

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To conclude, Karaganov is the person who is voicing the Kremlin's goals and aspirations after it's stripped off its diplomatic rhetoric. The madman's genocidal lunacy includes the use of nuclear weapons against the West and complete destruction of Ukraine as a state.

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Thanks to @mfphhh, @jakluge and @usv1980 for bringing Karaganov's latest plan for genocide to the English-speaking public.

All soups:
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More from @P_Kallioniemi

Jul 7
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll introduce an American national security policy professional and the current under secretary of defense for policy, Elbridge Colby (@ElbridgeColby). He’s best-known for fighting with cartoon dogs online and for halting military aid to Ukraine.

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Elbridge "Cheese" Colby earned his bachelor’s degree from Yale and a Juris Doctor from Harvard Law School. Before entering government, he worked at top think tanks and in the intelligence community, focusing on nuclear policy and strategic planning.

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Cheese quickly became a key voice for a “China First” strategy, arguing the US must prioritize military buildup in Asia over commitments in Europe or the Middle East. He sees (or saw, rather) Taiwan as the core test of US credibility.

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Jul 6
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’m going to talk about… Vatnik Soup! As some of you know, we also have a website where you can find every soup ever published. The site also has other useful resources, making it the most comprehensive resource on Russian disinformation & vatniks.

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Unfortunately, Elon has flagged the website as malware, as he might not be very happy about the soups I wrote about him - so far, they have garnered over 60 million views on X/Twitter.

The “freedom of speech” spokesperson doesn’t seem too keen on free speech, after all.

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The heart & soul of the website is of course the soups page. There you can find all 360+ soups, which can be sorted chronologically, by popularity, etc. You can also search for soups by title or even in the soup text:

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Jul 1
In today’s Wumao Soup, I’ll introduce how and where the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) online propaganda and influence operations work. Due to China’s massive population and advances in AI, CCP-aligned online content has become increasingly visible.

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Like Russia’s troll farms, China has its own troll army: the “50 Cent Party” or “Wumao” refers to state-linked online commentators who are reportedly paid ¥0.50 per post to steer discussions away from criticism and amplify CCP narratives on social media.

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Back in 2017, a research paper estimated that the Wumao produced almost 500 million fabricated comments annually to distract readers and shift topics. In that sense, Wumao operates very similarly to the Russian “Firehose of Falsehood” model:

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Read 21 tweets
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In today’s Vatnik Soup and the “Degenerate Russia” series, I’ll show you the brutal reality of Russian war crimes, in particular the horrific tortures and sexual abuses of children, women and men.

Buckle up, this one is not for the faint-hearted.

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For over a decade now and as part of their “firehose of falsehood” propaganda strategy, Russia has been spreading false narratives targeted at right-wing/conservative audiences, portraying russia as a bastion of Christian, traditional,family values.

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In the previous “degenerate Russia” series we discussed Russia’s insanely high divorce rates, rampant domestic violence, high murder rates, thriving neo-Nazi culture, corruption of the Orthodox Church, and their massive demographic problem:

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While initially supportive of Israel, the Soviet Union quickly pivoted to backing its enemies, fueling antisemitism, terrorism, and chaos in an already tense region. At times, this meant near-open war, like when Soviet Air Force MiG-21s were shot down by Israel over Egypt.

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In today’s Vatnik Soup REBREW, I’ll re-introduce a Latvian politician and former MEP, Tatjana Ždanoka. She’s best-known for her history in the Communist Party of Latvia, for her pro-Russian politics in the country, and her connections to Russian intelligence.

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…a paramilitary force supported by the Nazis, during the early 1940s. Ždanoka became politically active in the late 80s. She was one of the leaders of Interfront, a political party that supported Latvia remaining part of the USSR.

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Read 23 tweets

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