Pekka Kallioniemi Profile picture
Sep 20, 2023 22 tweets 10 min read Read on X
In today's #vatniksoup, I'll introduce a Russian political scientist and head of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, Sergey Karaganov. He's best-known for his imperialistic policies since the early 1990's, and for calling the destruction of the West and of Ukraine.

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Karaganov created a doctrine carrying his name in the early 90's. The basic idea of the doctrine is that Russia should always protect, even by force, the ethnic Russian population in other countries. In the beginning, it was mostly targeted at the Baltic states.

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He's also a strong proponent of Eurasianism, and argues that Russia and China should cooperate economically to triumph over the Western regions. Basically, his views were the precedent of the BRICS agreement. He considers China as Russia's closest
ally.

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Sergey's policies and views are extremely hawkish. He's called Russia a "genetically authoritarian power", and claimed that Russia's main foreign policy goal is to force its dominance on the globe and break the security order put in place after the end of Cold War in 1991.

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After Russia launched its full-scale invasion in Ukraine in Feb 2022, Karaganov stated that "The process of restoring Russian statehood, Russian influence, Russian power, which had been going on for quite a long time, had simply come to the surface."

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Already in 2014, he warned that Russia may attack Ukraine, and that "hell would break out" unless Ukraine stayed out of NATO and if the Russian-speaking regions in eastern and southern Ukraine are not granted broad autonomy.

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Apparently Karaganov at some point supported the idea of Russia joining NATO, as in 2019 interview he claimed that leaving Russia out was "one of the worst mistakes in political history" and that by doing this the West would eventually "sacrifice Ukraine".

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He formulated many of the core ideas leading to Russia's invasion in Feb 2022. Right before the attack, he declared that the "situation is so dire that war is inevitable" and that Russia could only achieve its goals by military force.

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In the same article, he stated how Russia had no economic, political, cultural or ideological benefits the could offer to Ukraine, and that Russia's neighbors saw the West offering more attractive political and economic models. Finally, someone in Russia speaks the truth!

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For the Russian elites, he's called the war in Ukraine an "existential war", and declared that Ukraine's leadership should be changed to "pro-Russian government" and that there should be "real security" for the "Donbas republics".

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He's claimed that the ongoing war will be used to "restructure Russian elite and Russian society", pushing out the non-patriotic elements from the elite & making the country more militant-based and national-based.Maybe that's why that old drunk Medvedev is being so hawkish?
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He's said that Russia's "demilitarization" of Ukraine consists of complete destruction of Ukrainian military forces, and that after this Ukrainians "will become much more peaceful and friendly to us." He's compared the situation to what Russia did previously in Chechnya.

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In his fantasies, Russia would cause the complete disintegration of Ukraine. He's said that "It is possible that something may go to Russia, something to Hungary, something to Poland, and something may remain a formally independent Ukrainian state."

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In Jun 2023, Karaganov called for the use nuclear weapons against some NATO member states in Europe. He said that if Russia were to nuke, say Poznan, the US would stay away from the conflict to save their own cities, and that "the Global South would feel satisfaction from..
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...the defeat of their former oppressors." In the end of Aug 2023, Karaganov among other Russian political scientists published a report called "Problems and Lessons of the Recent History of Russian Foreign Policy (and Possibilities for Correction)". In this report,...

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...they advised Kremlin to nullify all nuclear weapon control treaties, to terminate OSCE membership and scrap the treaty on nuclear non-proliferation (NPT). It also suggests the use of nuclear weapons against NATO countries. The report encouraged Russian authorities...

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...to accelerate infrastructure projects in the eastern Russia and in Siberia. Karaganov et al. also call for exploiting Ukraine and use its resources. According to them, Ukrainian POWs should be used as forced labor to work on various infrastructure projects, and 1-2...

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million Ukrainians should be forcefully deported to the new Siberian settlements. Then comes the most absurd and barbaric part: Karaganov et al. want to turn Ukraine into barren, de-populated buffer zone against the Western states. After Ukraine has been occupied,...

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...its infrastructure should be - according to this group of maniacs - completely destroyed. This would include the destruction of its road and rail network, energy production, industry, and all large settlements.

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The goal of this would be to deprive Ukraine's possibility to exist as a state and make it an agrarian outpost.

They also claim that this would make Ukraine "uninteresting to the West," and based on the West's slow arms deliveries, this may already be the case.

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To conclude, Karaganov is the person who is voicing the Kremlin's goals and aspirations after it's stripped off its diplomatic rhetoric. The madman's genocidal lunacy includes the use of nuclear weapons against the West and complete destruction of Ukraine as a state.

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Thanks to @mfphhh, @jakluge and @usv1980 for bringing Karaganov's latest plan for genocide to the English-speaking public.

All soups:
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More from @P_Kallioniemi

Sep 11
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll cover the agenda-setting and flood of disinformation that spread on X and other platforms right after Charlie Kirk’s assassination. It’s far from the first or last time a tragedy has been weaponized for political purposes.

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Every major political event, especially those involving violence, attracts massive attention. In the immediate aftermath, reliable information is scarce, making it highly vulnerable to both coordinated and improvised disinformation campaigns.

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As I’ve mentioned in my previous soups and lectures, in disinformation campaigns, being first with a narrative is crucial, as people often remember the first version best — psychology studies show it sets the mental schema, and later updates rarely overwrite it.

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In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll introduce American social media personality David Freeman, AKA Gunther Eagleman™ (@GuntherEagleman). He’s best known for spreading political disinformation on X and shamelessly sucking up to Trump, Putin, and other authoritarian leaders.

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David is a textbook example of someone profiting from MAGA grievance politics. He uses extreme, provocative language to farm engagement on X and never hesitates to flatter anyone who might give him more exposure — or money.

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But David wasn’t always like this. At some point, in his mid-40s, he even tried a real job: he trained to become a cop. He spent three years with the Metro Transit PD, but after that he either got fired or quit, and never looked back.

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Sep 5
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll introduce a Russian-Estonian businessman, Oleg Ossinovski. He is best-known for his deep ties to Russian rail and energy networks, shady cross-border dealings, and for channeling his wealth into Estonian politics.

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Oleg made his fortune via Spacecom Trans & Skinest Rail, both deeply tied to Russia’s rail system. Most of this is through Globaltrans Investments PLC, a Cyprus-based firm with 62% held via Spacecom and tens of millions in yearly profits.

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Ossinovski’s Russian-linked ventures made him Estonia’s richest man in 2014, with an estimated fortune of ~€300M. His business empire stretched across railways, oil via Alexela shares, and Russian bitumen imports from Help-Oil, a supplier to the Defense Ministry.

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Sep 2
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll introduce a Swiss/French writer, Alain Bonnet, aka Alain Soral (@officielsoral). He’s best known for his rabid antisemitism and for his pathetic support for all the worst authoritarian regimes from Russia to North Korea.

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Alain’s childhood was problematic, as his father has been characterized as a “narcissistic pervert” who beat his children and did jail time for fraud. Alain himself has said he was “programmed to be a monster.” Born Alain Bonnet, he took the stage name of his sister,…

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… actress Agnès Soral. She wasn’t too happy about this, commenting “How would you like to be called Agnès Hitler?”. Like many grifters, he became a pick-up/seduction artist writer, à la late Gonzalo Lira, writing books and even making a B-movie, “Confessions d’un dragueur”.
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Aug 18
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll explain the Alaska Fiasco and how it marks the peak of Trump’s two-year betrayal of Ukraine. What was sold as “peace talks” turned into a spectacle of weakness, humiliation, empty promises, and photo-ops that handed Putin exactly what he wanted.

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Let’s start with the obvious: Trump desperately wants the gold medal of the Nobel Peace Prize, mainly because Obama got one. That’s why he’s now LARPing as a “peace maker” in every conflict: Israel-Gaza, Azerbaijan-Armenia, India-Pakistan, and of course Ukraine-Russia.

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Another theory is that Putin holds kompromat — compromising material such as videos or documents — that would put Trump in an extremely bad light. Some have suggested it could be tied to the Epstein files or Russia’s interference in the 2016 US presidential election.

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Aug 11
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll talk about engagement farming: a cynical social media tactic to rack up likes, shares, and comments. From rage farming to AI-powered outrage factories, engagement farming is reshaping online discourse and turning division into profit.

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Engagement farming is a social media tactic aimed at getting maximum likes, shares, and comments, with truth being optional. It thrives on provocative texts, images, or videos designed to spark strong reactions, boost reach, and turn online outrage into clicks and cash.

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One subset of engagement farming is rage farming: a tactic built to provoke strong negative emotions through outrageous or inflammatory claims. By triggering anger or moral outrage, these posts often generate 100s or even 1,000s of heated comments, amplifying their reach.

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Read 24 tweets

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