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1/ A new analysis has found that mobilised Russians who have been sent to Ukraine have only survived, on average, for 4.5 months before being killed. One in five of the mobilised has not survived longer than eight weeks. ⬇️ 
2/ A joint investigation by Important Stories and the Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT) has analysed the reported deaths of thousands of mobilised Russians. They found that almost every region of Russia has sustained fatalities, with the youngest just 19 and the oldest aged 62.
3/ At least 130 died within the first month of mobilisation, with some being killed just days after arriving in Ukraine. 20% were killed within two months, with the average mobik dying within 4.5 months. 0.2% lasted 11 months before they were killed.
4/ Every tenth mobilised person who died was aged under 25, with half of the fatalities occurring between the ages of 30 and 45. Anton Getman from the Rostov region was the youngest at 19; he was mobilised three months after the end of his conscript service.
5/ At the other end of the scale, 62-year-old Major Nikolai Isakov from the Tver region survived eight months in Ukraine. He was killed in Russia, in the Shebekinsky district of the Belgorod region, during the June 2023 incursion by the pro-Ukrainian Russian Volunteer Corps.
6/ The CIT attributes the demographic disparities to younger people being better informed about what is happening in the war, and therefore being more inclined to evade mobilisation.
7/ "They get better information about the brutality happening at the front, they understand the state of the Russian army.
8/ "Therefore, it was easier for the military registration and enlistment offices to recruit older people than young people: those who served in the 2000s do not compare their military service with what they have now – they think that everything has changed."
9/ The number of casualties has ebbed and flowed during the war, with the highest peaks coming during the 'meat grinder' at Kreminna and Svatove in eastern Ukraine in the autumn of 2022. Mobiks have also died en masse in Ukrainian attacks on their barracks and convoys.
10/ More peaks came in the Spring of 2023 during the fighting for Avidiivka and Bakhmut, when many mobiks were transferred to units under the command of the Donetsk and Luhansk 'People's Republics'. Their commanders likely expended thousands of people in failed assaults.
11/ CIT says the surviving mobiks' prospects are bleak: "This whole year since the beginning of the announcement of mobilisation shows that little has changed for the mobilised: the way they have been used [in the hottest spots] is still the way they are being used."
12/ "Poor attitude of commanders, an unreconstructed combat system, no artillery support – the systematic problems with the mobilised have remained in place. Those who have been through the fighting and survived have become more experienced, but accumulated fatigue is growing.
13/ "In the beginning, they were told: "You will serve for six months and go home, no one will send you to the front line" – and they thought: "Now we will go quickly, get medals, money and come back."
14/ "Now many mobilised people complain that they have been serving for 11 months and have never been home.
15/ "Once mobilisation starts, they can no longer refuse to participate [in the war] with impunity, and we see a growing level of criminal prosecution for leaving a unit without permission.
16/ "Why don't they send them on leave? [Commanders] are afraid that if you send 100 men on leave, only half will come back."
17/ Some regions, such as Buryatia, have been suffering disproportionate number of casualties. The CIT attributes this to an excessive level of mobilisation in such places; some researchers have pointed to systemic discrimination against the regions. /end
https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1701868560887214375
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