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Rob Lee Profile picture
@RALee85
Sep 22 • 3 tweets • 1 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Romanchuk is in charge of Russian forces in Zaporizhzhia where the main thrust of Ukraine’s counteroffensive is occurring. This suggests that it wasn’t just a strike on the Black Sea Fleet HQ, but timed to target key senior leaders during a meeting.
More on Romanchuk. 2/
3/

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More from @RALee85

Rob Lee Profile picture
Sep 13
A # of Russian Telegram channels posted videos of explosions and a fire reportedly at the 13th Ship Repair Plant in Sevastopol, possibly from a missile strike.




t.me/breakingmash/4…
t.me/vchkogpu/41750
t.me/chp_sevastopol…
t.me/chp_sevastopol…
t.me/chp_sevastopol…




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Video reportedly of a fire at the the Sevastopol Shipyard. 2/

t.me/mash_na_volne/…
t.me/bazabazon/21382
3/
Read 10 tweets
Rob Lee Profile picture
Aug 14
Thread on Russia’s Army 2023 defense expo. The Russian MoD has reportedly signed a contract for a batch of armored “Mad Max” Tigr-M SpN vehicles with Arbalet-DM remote-operated turrets.

https://t.co/3CGXJM3ZYB https://t.co/p6zQu14FTam.vk.com/photo-12353863…
t.me/rian_ru/212083



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Russia has experimented with adding armor to Tigr vehicles, including the vehicles used in Colonel General Lapin's PSD. 2/
https://t.co/j2tEpDyH24
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Russia's Military Industrial Company is also demonstrating a modernized version of the BTR-82A with a different hull. They previously showed off the BTR-87. This might be an option instead of the Bumerang. 3/

https://t.co/U34N9SIPJd
https://t.co/KvaI1QomgF https://t.co/vUVkqKCrTTt.me/vestnikpvo/163…
vk.com/milinfolive?w=…


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Read 6 tweets
Rob Lee Profile picture
Jul 17
Something happened to the Crimean Bridge over night. Eyewitnesses say they heard an explosion and footage shows smoke rising and the lights turned off on part of the bridge.

https://t.co/IjAP01AfLo
https://t.co/1pk802l8tF https://t.co/riX2sH7nE7 https://t.co/Izo3BFNpjQt.me/bazabazon/19594
t.me/bazabazon/19601
t.me/bazabazon/19599
twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

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Photos from the site of a reported explosion on the bridge. The Mash Telegram channel says there were two explosions about 20 minutes apart. One span was reportedly destroyed. 2/

https://t.co/KjxV1jJaD6 https://t.co/Fm1YlLi3bmt.me/breakingmash/4…
t.me/breakingmash/4…

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3/
Read 6 tweets
Rob Lee Profile picture
Jun 28
"Sergei Surovikin...has not been seen since recording a hostage-style video in the early hours of Saturday morning as the mutiny began, according to several people familiar with the matter."
@maxseddon @polinaivanovva @NastyaStognei @felschwartz
https://t.co/PdlZt7v7N1ft.com/content/1d084f…
"Prigozhin’s plan for the mutiny...was widely known in Russian security circles in the days before the former Kremlin caterer declared his “march for justice” on Friday evening, according to people familiar with the matter."
3/
Read 4 tweets
Rob Lee Profile picture
Jun 24
Some early thoughts:
-More questions than answers
-Short-term compromise ≠ long-term solution
-This was a mutiny not a coup
-Too soon to say Putin will fall anytime soon
-Not clear this will affect Ukraine's offensive
-The previous Kremlin-Wagner relationship is over
-Likely an attempt by Prigozhin/Wagner to keep their independence and not be subordinated to the MoD
-May have succeeded in the short-term but probably won't in the long-term
-The terms of the agreement aren't clear but these probably aren't a solution
2/
-What started as a factional dispute between powerful Russian figures became a public challenge to Putin
-This event was designed to get Putin's attention
-Possibly one of the worst days in the Russian Air Force's history and caused by Russians
3/
Read 6 tweets
Rob Lee Profile picture
Jun 24
I think the catalyst for this was the move by the MoD to force all PMCs to sign contracts with them, which likely had Putin's support. There might be a short-term compromise or truce, but I don't think things can go back to normal after this.
The timing was as bad as possible for the MoD. They are heavily committed trying to hold back Ukraine's counteroffensive. That's why Wagner could move so fast with a relatively small force, but the optics for Wagner are very bad. Particularly, if Ukraine makes gains this week. 2/
I think Prigozhin permanently lost support from some war supporters because of this. Putin publicly declared these actions a betrayal, and it appears Wagner shot down several Ru Air Force aircraft, which they need. He also publicly embarrassed Putin and made him look weak. 3/
Read 6 tweets

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