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ISW Profile picture
@TheStudyofWar
Sep 24 • 4 tweets • 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
The Ukrainian counteroffensive in western #Zaporizhia Oblast has likely destroyed the Russian 810th Naval Infantry Brigade (Black Sea Fleet). Elements of the brigade have reportedly been operating in the Zaporizhia direction since March 2023 and in w. Zaporizhia since June 2023.
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2/ Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Head Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov stated in an interview with @thewarzonewire published on September 22 that the 810th Brigade was “completely defeated” in southern #Ukraine. thedrive.com/the-war-zone/e…
3/ Budanov stated that the 810th Brigade has withdrawn and that Russian airborne (VDV) units replaced them on the front.
4/ Budanov‘s description of the status of the 810th Brigade corresponds most closely to the US military‘s doctrinal definition of the tactical mission task of “destroy”: “physically render[ing] an enemy force combat-ineffective until reconstituted.” isw.pub/UkrWar092323

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More from @TheStudyofWar

ISW Profile picture
Sep 25
🧵#Ukrainian forces may be able to achieve an operationally significant breakthrough in the southern frontline if several key assumptions hold. A significant Ukrainian success will be more likely if:
isw.pub/UkrWar092423

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2/ This hypothesis is invalid if any of these assumptions are invalidated, though there are indicators that these assumptions remain valid as of ISW's September 24, 2023 campaign assessment.
3/ ISW continues to assess that the Russian military does not have sufficient forces deployed to w. Zaporizhia to completely man its defenses in depth and that UKR forces should be able to operate through Russian field fortifications more rapidly if they are not properly manned.
Read 9 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Sep 25
New from ISW's @nataliabugayova:

“Ukrainian forces have adapted. #Ukraine’s military decision-making is sound. Now is not the time for Western doubt but for the West to embrace Ukraine’s way of war & commit to sustaining Ukraine on the battlefield.” More: isw.pub/UkrWayofWar
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2/ "The summer 2023 Ukrainian counteroffensive faced a major challenge after #Russia had months to build up its defenses in occupied #Ukraine...But the Ukrainian forces have done what successful militaries do — they have adapted and are now advancing."
3/ "#Ukraine’s way of war has yielded repeated successes against Russian forces. Ukrainian forces have, with Western support, defeated Russian objectives repeatedly: in Kyiv, in Kharkiv, in Kharkiv Oblast, in Kherson, and now, to a growing extent, in Ukraine’s south."
Read 6 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Sep 25
The Russian military command may be ordering these counterattacks to buy time, but it is unclear how the Kremlin intends to use time bought at such a price.
🧵(1/8) isw.pub/UkrWar092423

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2/ Russian forces appear to be unwilling to surrender tactical areas and are focusing instead on fighting for every meter instead of benefiting from the depth of their prepared defenses.
3/ The Russian sacrifice of combat power to hold every meter may alternatively be intended to support the #Kremlin’s informational and hybrid warfare objectives. isw.pub/UkrWar092423
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Read 8 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Sep 25
Russian forces continue to expend significant combat power on counterattacking to hold their current positions and appear to be resisting the operationally sound course of action of falling back to prepared defensive positions further south. 🧵(1/9) isw.pub/UkrWar092423

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2/ The Russian command constructed a multi-echeloned defense in southern Ukraine that would have allowed the Russian command to deploy defending Russian forces in depth throughout subsequent defensive layers.
3/ Russian forces have instead expended considerable amounts of manpower, materiel, and effort to hold the forwardmost defensive positions in southern Ukraine and have only withdrawn to subsequent defensive positions at the direct threat of Ukrainian advances. Image
Read 9 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Sep 25
Tonight's report covers a very dynamic situation in the ongoing UKR counteroffensive near Orikhiv in w. Zaporizhia. The tactical situation is likely changing rapidly & it's too soon to forecast if UKR will achieve an operational breakthrough in the sector🧵 isw.pub/UkrWar092423


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2/ Ukrainian forces are attacking along three directions within the Orikhiv salient as of Sept. 24. Ukrainian forces are conducting attacks from Robotyne against Novoprokopivka, directly into Verbove’s western side, and north of Verbove.
3/ Russian sources report that Ukrainian forces broke into Verbove on September 22 and continued attacking the settlement with armored vehicles as of September 24.
Read 7 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Sep 24
NEW: ISW is now prepared to assess that Ukrainian forces have broken through Russian field fortifications west of #Verbove in western #Zaporizhia Oblast. 🧵(1/7)

Latest campaign assessment: isw.pub/UkrWar092323


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2/ These fortifications are not the final defensive line in Russia’s defense in depth in western Zaporizhia, but rather a specific series of the best-prepared field fortifications arrayed as part of a near-contiguous belt about 1.7-3.5 km west of #Verbove.
3/ Ukrainian forces have not overcome all of the prepared Russian defensive positions near #Verbove, however, and Ukrainian forces’ rate of advance near their breakthrough remains unclear.
Read 7 tweets

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