Thread by @ChrisO_wiki

1/ Ukrainian and Russian sources have confirmed that Wagner fighters have returned to fighting in Ukraine, although in small numbers and apparently in disjointed groups. This may reflect individual former Wagnerites or small units joining the Russian MOD's forces. ⬇️

2/ The Wagner-affiliated Grey Zone Telegram channel, which appears to represent those still loyal to the late Yevgeny Prigozin, says that a force of those who refused to join the march on Moscow has been recruited by Wagner's former personnel director.

3/ The channel writes: "At the formerly permanent and now former base of Wagner Group in the village of Molkino in the Krasnodar region, the formation of a detachment from among the 500s [refuseniks] from the "March of Justice" is now complete, as well as from among those who…

4/ …were lured by those former employees who fled to the new organisation. Among other things, "thanks" to the head of the personnel department, who stole the database of Wagner Group personnel and then organised a call-out to them.

5/ "This was also stated by one of the commanders of the Wagner Group, Hero of Russia, with the call sign "Koldun" ["Sorcerer"] ...

6/ "It is assumed that this detachment of 500s, newly recruited by promises of golden mountains, will now enter the Bakhmut direction, most likely on the flanks, where the enemy knocked out our forces from Klishchiivka and Andriivka."

7/ Grey Zone disavows any 'official' Wagner endorsement for the new detachment: "I assure you that this organisation has nothing to do with the Wagner Group, no matter what they say on its behalf, …

8/ …no matter what flags they put up at the former base in Molkino and no matter what chevrons they wear – this is just exploitation of the image."

9/ Ukrainian sources have also said that they have seen Wagner fighters reappearing on the front line in southern and eastern Ukraine. Former Lugansk regional head Serhiy Hayday said on 23 September that Wagner detachments were operating in Lugansk and elsewhere.

10/ In a CNN interview, Ukraine's southern regional commander General Oleksandr Tarnavsky said that "in some directions, I can’t say whether it’s the Kherson region, or our direction, or somewhere else, they do pop up.

11/ "The fact is that their badges appear here and there – that’s been constant.”

12/ He said that the Ukrainians "suspect the presence of Wagner if we see the deterrence of our offensive forces with the involvement of a category of military personnel who perform these tasks in a more interesting [more non-standard] way.

13/ "This makes one think: “Maybe it’s Wagner that has showed up?" But there is no such unit in my area of the front today. Regarding the Kherson direction – I can’t say."

14/ It seems apparent that while individual fighters or small groups are present, they are not unified. Some may be fighters who have agreed to sign contracts with the Russian MOD – though it's unlikely that the MOD would have signed up any mutineers.

15/ As @TheStudyofWar puts it, "disjointed Wagner Group contingents reportedly returning to fight in Ukraine are likely to have a marginal impact on Russian combat capabilities…

16/ …without bringing the full suite of effectiveness Wagner had had as a unitary organization under financier Yevgeniy Prigozhin’s and founder Dmitry Utkin’s leadership." /end

Sources:
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🔹 t.me/grey_zone/20707
t.me/serhiy_hayday/…
edition.cnn.com/2023/09/23/eur…
understandingwar.org/backgrounder/r…

trinitymedia.ai/player/share/a…