Trent Telenko Profile picture
Sep 24 7 tweets 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
AFU units have entered Novoprokopivka on the Tokmak axis and are pushing hard slightly west of Verbove. 

The AFU has also cut off a lateral road between Novoprokopivka and Verbove the RuAF have been using as means of shuttling units between the two village weak points.

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There are 28 RuAF inf. brigade flags around the Novoprokopivka - Verbove salient at 20%-to-40% strength with the boundary of two Russian combined arms armies smack between those villages.

And one, the 58th CAA HQ, just losing its command post, commander and executive officer
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The Reporting From Ukraine YouTube channel has a good run down on the events of this tactical breakthrough.

Odds are the RuAF have built their trenches to stop an enemy in front of, but not rolling along, their trenchline.

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That is, I think the AFU has an opportunity to quickly widen a breach, also giving them opportunities to find more weak points along the trench system.

I'm told AFU assault unit's biggest problems are waves of RuAF APV drones attacking infantry assault groups in daylight.

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This implies Russia has a new generation of FPV drones with a wider range of control frequencies either outside Ukrainian jammer coverage or on too many different frequencies for the available AFU jammer radiated power to cover them all at once.

5/6
More powerful AFU jammers are easier to geolocate and be destroy with RuAF artillery.

So there is no good solution short of AFU fielding more (in numbers) and more sophisticated direction finders and jammers.

In war, "The enemy always gets a vote."

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More from @TrentTelenko

Sep 26
I got a question in the @secretsqrl123 X-Space about this Russian cruise missile attack a few days ago.

I told the questioner that in addition to striking the target, the Russians were mapping Ukrainian air defenses for future attacks

Measurement and signature intelligence🧵
1/
Now look at the route of this later cruise missile attack on Odesa.

That 'big dipper' dogleg into Southern Ukraine you see in the previous post had mapped Ukrainian air defenses, so the cruise missile routing below could happen.

2/
The VKS likely had an IL-20M Coot electronic surveillance plane up over Crimea and Western Black Sea air space during that Sept 17th cruise missile attack mapping Ukrainian air defense radars, particularly the fire control radars...

3/
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ilyushin_…
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Read 13 tweets
Sep 24
I'm waiting for someone to claim an F-35 (or 6th generation air dominance fighter) can counter this air superiority threat.🤣

If a F-35 costs $30K an hour to operate, that's about $8.33 a sec.

The drone the did this attack can be paid for by 36 seconds of a F-35 flight hour
1/2
And note, I was low balling the F-35 flight hour cost. See:

"The most recent estimate for the F-35A model’s cost per flying hour was $33,000, in 2012 dollars."

2/
airandspaceforces.com/lockheed-marti…
The inflation multiplier from 2012 to 2023 is $1 in 2012 is worth $1.34 today. (See link)

So in FY2023 money, an F-35 costs $44,220 an hour to operate. That works out to $12.28 a second.

Thus paying for that FPV drone in 24.4 seconds.

3/3 End
in2013dollars.com/us/inflation/2…
Read 4 tweets
Sep 23
The arrival of the APAM cluster munitions equipped ATACMS Block 1 and 1A will cause the push back of VKS Buk, S-300 and S-400 surface to air missile batteries out of Southern Ukraine and all of Donbas.

Destruction of Russian air defense🧵
1/
This Cold War era video will explain the effects of the APAM variants on Russian SAM battery type targets.

2/
This will require a software upgrade to existing wheeled HIMARS and the tracked M270 launchers in Ukrainian service.

3/
thedrive.com/the-war-zone/u…
Read 18 tweets
Sep 22
I've had multiple threads on the DC De-escalation faction running going back over a year.

Now UK Foreign Secretary James Cleverly comes out and confirms what I've been laying out about those Biden bureaucratic mandarins running Ukraine policy.

1/
pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/…

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This is one of my latest X threads detailing the Players, their "Escalation Management" ideology and motivations over time that Cleverly didn't get into for reasons of diplomacy.

2/
The damage these delusional elites are doing to national security via the accelerated Ukrainian development of deep strike drones they've forced by slow walking ATACMS & F-16, as well as the damage they are doing to US European NATO nation security relations is huge.

3/3
Read 4 tweets
Sep 21
This is the logical outcome of the Biden Administration's slow walking of weapons to Ukraine for "de-escalation".

It is also a budgetary catastrophe for US National Security.

The coming Biden De-escalation driven DoD budget meltdown🧵
1/
The US Military "disinvestment" in autocannon ground based air defense since 1989 means 70 km(+) range loitering munitions have as clean a run to a USMC F-35B or US Army AH-64 forward operating base as this Russian drone did to this PSU Mig-29.

2/
What we are seeing here is the Biden Administration fear of 'escalation' powering military disruptive innovation that hurts American national security far more than their fears of 'escalation' justify.

3/
Read 9 tweets
Sep 20
The Kerch Straits Railway Bridge caught a Storm Shadow / SCALP cruise missile today?

Alas, we must wait on more confirmation.

1/
Russian leaning accounts claim 4 hits.

2/3 Image
Well, we know that this Storm Shadow / SCALP wasn't shot down when the video was taken.😉
3/3
Read 4 tweets

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