Ukraine has expanded its control of the areas west of Verbove, and armoured vehicles are operating beyond the first Surovikin line. At the same time, the villages of Andriivka and Klishchiivka were liberated south of Bakhmut.
Are we seeing a breakthrough? Time for a thread. 1/
In September, Ukraine advanced a couple of kilometres in the fields west of Verbove, beyond the main defensive line. They also captured fortified positions south of Robotyne and continued further south. Russian counterattacks have not been able to recapture lost positions. 2/
Ukraine is also now able to operate various armoured vehicles on the other side of the Surovikin line. Even though immediate Russian anti-tank capabilities are likely somewhat suppressed, larger Ukrainian troop concentrations and movements can still be seen from the air. 3/
Even though Ukraine is slowly making progress every month, we haven’t seen an actual breakthrough.
In a breakthrough, an attack not only penetrates the enemy lines, but contributes to a more significant collapse of enemy defences in a certain area. 4/
In a breakthrough, there should be exploitable and reinforceable success, which brings the defender into a reactive state, unable to carry out the original defensive plans. In this situation, the defender should be disorganized, either forced to retreat or risk heavy losses. 5/
Manoeuvres with mechanised units should also be possible, as speed is a central element for keeping the momentum up. If the enemy can decisively limit or even totally prevent all such operations, a breakthrough isn’t really happening. 6/
Even though Ukraine has not achieved a breakthrough during this counteroffensive in any direction, we have seen a breach. Ukrainians have captured multiple forward fighting positions and control a section of the first main defence line, also known as the first Surovikin line. 7/
The Russians are still able to conduct an organized defence. Their lines are bending, but not breaking. The salient at the Robotyne-Verbove area is of course a problem for them, but they seem to have enough resources to prevent the situation from spiraling out of control. 8/
Can we still see a breakthrough during this year?
I find it unlikely, if the Russians keep using their troops in a sensible manner and focus on repelling the Ukrainian attacks. However, incompetence is a big factor which can have significant effects, at least locally. 9/
One important variable is Russia's losses. It is not clearly known how challenging the situation actually is for them.
At some point, Putin likely has to mobilize again. Delaying this decision can have serious consequences for the Russians, positive for the Ukrainians. 10/
Breakthroughs have been generally rare in this war after the first weeks. Ukrainians managed to do one in Kharkiv last autumn with significant consequences. A smaller one was achieved by the Russians, when they captured Lysychansk in summer 2022. 11/
Our team at the @Black_BirdGroup continues to monitor the situation. Our interactive map is updated (almost) daily. Remember to click the “Russian Defence Lines” layer on from the side panel, it helps you understand the situation better. 12/12
The operation continues. Ukrainians have expanded their area of control, pushing north towards Lgov and east towards Belitsa.
We had to modify some map visualization styles to better represent the situation. 1/
Part of the Ukrainian focus seems to have shifted to the southeastern part of the AO, to the Belitsa direction.
Ukrainians have likely entered several villages between Belitsa and the state border. There are some uncertainities, as there's very little material from here. 2/
A Ukrainian APC detachment managed to go as far as to the village of Giri, next to Belitsa.
However, they suffered significant losses and likely had to retreat. Belitsa and the immediate surroundings are most likely still under Russian control. 3/
The operation has been ongoing for a almost a week. During the last days, Ukraine has not made very significant progress, but they have started solidifying their positions in the newly captured areas.
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As expected, it took Russia a few days to transfer units to the area, and they will likely continue to do so in the coming days. With their current forces, the Russians have managed to prevent any more serious breakthroughs from happening. Local counterattacks have started. 2/
Russians are likely still holding some central and eastern parts of Sudzha, while the Ukrainians are continuing operations in the area. In Martynovka, Russians counterattacked and likely pushed Ukrainians out of the village. Reportedly Ukrainians are trying to get it back. 3/
Ukrainians have pushed further in all directions. They have at least a partial control of Sudzha and they're pushing towards Koronevo-Rylsk direction.
Smaller detachments are operating on in the area of the Sudzha-Lgov road. 1/
It is unclear how large the Ukrainian area of control actually is, and what areas are so-called grey zones, where neither party has a solid control. The map is a conservative assessment - Ukrainians may control additional villages. OPSEC is still very tight. 2/
Some Ukrainian units were able to exploit the disorganized state of the Russian defences, and pushed further north towards Lgov. Most likely the Russians still don't have the situation under full control, and we may still see more areas fall to Ukrainians. 3/
The ongoing Ukrainian offensive in Kursk oblast has begun successfully.
In less than two days, Ukraine has achieved a breakthrough, pushing at least 12 kilometers deep, through two lines of Russian fortifications.
The Russians seem to be in a state of disarray. 1/
Why was this possible?
1. Failure of Russian military intelligence or leadership
2. Inadequate Russian border forces
3. Ukraine deciding to commit significant forces in Kursk instead of strengthening the east in order to stop the Russians in Toretsk and Pokrovsk directions
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The actual goals are still unclear. Ukraine might try to shift some of the Russian focus from other areas to Kursk. Ukraine may also seek better positions for future negotiations, if the purpose of the operation is to take over and hold land areas for a longer period of time. 3/
Russia has been able to advance unusually quickly in the Niu York-Toretsk direction, which has been a mostly static direction since 2022.
While breaching the Ukrainian defences there, Russia has also made additional gains in the villages around Ocheretyne. 1/
One of the main reasons for these rapid developments seems to be related to Ukrainian rotations.
In late June, AFU rotated the 24th Mechanized Brigade from the Toretsk-Niu York area to Chasiv Yar. 41st Mech from Chasiv Yar took over the positions in Toretsk-Niu York. 2/
Something went wrong, and the Russians were able to exploit the situation. It's not the first time when such developments are observed during rotations.
The 95th Air Assault Brigade and 32nd Mechanized Brigade have now been sent to the area to stabilize the situation. 3/
Russia’s operation on the northern side of Kharkiv has lasted over six weeks. There have been serious difficulties at both operational and strategic level.
While the offensive is stuck, satellite images show the Russians have begun fortifying the newly occupied areas. 1/🧵
The Kharkiv operation had three probable goals:
1. Create confusion and tie Ukrainian reserves to a secondary direction, so that progress could be made elsewhere
2. Form a “buffer zone” between Belgorod and Ukraine
3. Possibly get parts of Kharkiv within artillery range
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Russia was able to tie some Ukrainian forces to Kharkiv, but it wasn’t able to exploit the initial momentum elsewhere on the front. In this situation, Russia has to divide its forces and spend manpower on a less important area, while progress is slow everywhere. 3/