Ukraine has expanded its control of the areas west of Verbove, and armoured vehicles are operating beyond the first Surovikin line. At the same time, the villages of Andriivka and Klishchiivka were liberated south of Bakhmut.
Are we seeing a breakthrough? Time for a thread. 1/
In September, Ukraine advanced a couple of kilometres in the fields west of Verbove, beyond the main defensive line. They also captured fortified positions south of Robotyne and continued further south. Russian counterattacks have not been able to recapture lost positions. 2/
Ukraine is also now able to operate various armoured vehicles on the other side of the Surovikin line. Even though immediate Russian anti-tank capabilities are likely somewhat suppressed, larger Ukrainian troop concentrations and movements can still be seen from the air. 3/
Even though Ukraine is slowly making progress every month, we haven’t seen an actual breakthrough.
In a breakthrough, an attack not only penetrates the enemy lines, but contributes to a more significant collapse of enemy defences in a certain area. 4/
In a breakthrough, there should be exploitable and reinforceable success, which brings the defender into a reactive state, unable to carry out the original defensive plans. In this situation, the defender should be disorganized, either forced to retreat or risk heavy losses. 5/
Manoeuvres with mechanised units should also be possible, as speed is a central element for keeping the momentum up. If the enemy can decisively limit or even totally prevent all such operations, a breakthrough isn’t really happening. 6/
Even though Ukraine has not achieved a breakthrough during this counteroffensive in any direction, we have seen a breach. Ukrainians have captured multiple forward fighting positions and control a section of the first main defence line, also known as the first Surovikin line. 7/
The Russians are still able to conduct an organized defence. Their lines are bending, but not breaking. The salient at the Robotyne-Verbove area is of course a problem for them, but they seem to have enough resources to prevent the situation from spiraling out of control. 8/
Can we still see a breakthrough during this year?
I find it unlikely, if the Russians keep using their troops in a sensible manner and focus on repelling the Ukrainian attacks. However, incompetence is a big factor which can have significant effects, at least locally. 9/
One important variable is Russia's losses. It is not clearly known how challenging the situation actually is for them.
At some point, Putin likely has to mobilize again. Delaying this decision can have serious consequences for the Russians, positive for the Ukrainians. 10/
Breakthroughs have been generally rare in this war after the first weeks. Ukrainians managed to do one in Kharkiv last autumn with significant consequences. A smaller one was achieved by the Russians, when they captured Lysychansk in summer 2022. 11/
Our team at the @Black_BirdGroup continues to monitor the situation. Our interactive map is updated (almost) daily. Remember to click the “Russian Defence Lines” layer on from the side panel, it helps you understand the situation better. 12/12
The Kharkiv offensive has been ongoing for a week. Russia had some initial success, but Ukraine has been able to restrain Russian forces from advancing deeper.
There are many narratives and claims surrounding the situation. First, why was Russia able to advance so quickly? 1/
"Digital scanning" of the border area is almost continuous. The Russian air reconnaissance, electronic warfare and strike teams and are active in many areas. This made it difficult for Ukraine to prepare heavy defences or to concentrate a large amount of troops at the border. 2/
For Ukraine, the reasonable option was to use the depth to their advantage, as they did. A few kilometres from the border, the Russians can rely less on prepared positions and other infrastructure on Russian territory, and they have to bring their supporting elements forward. 3/
One of the most significant current battles in Ukraine is taking place in the small city of Chasiv Yar.
In this thread, I will analyze the current situation, defensive preparations, terrain, participating units, various scenarios and future developments. 1/
Chasiv Yar is an important city. It’s the last somewhat larger built area before the crucial crossroads town of Kostiantynivka and other important cities in Donetsk. Encircling the city is difficult, as the Donets-Donbas canal forms a difficult obstacle for mechanized units. 2/
Ukraine has constructed several layers of trenches and other defensive positions north and south of Chasiv Yar. Even if the Russians managed to cross the canal at some point, they would still need to break through multiple fortified positions to seriously threaten the area. 3/
Russian Telegram channels are flooding with videos of a terrorist attack in Crocus City Hall, a music venue Moscow.
The video material suggests that there were at least four attackers, some sources say five. They were armed with fully automatic AK-type assault rifles. 1/
The building was set on fire during the attack. According to Ria Novosti, a Russian state media, the "fire is getting stronger". This means confirming the amount of dead and injured may take a while. 2/
The third year of the Russian full-scale invasion begins, and Ukraine is facing multiple difficulties. There's no room for optimism, as many problems can’t be solved in the coming months.
In this thread: Issues, threats and the future. 1/
While Ukraine was on the offensive in 2023, Russia silently amassed significant forces. Since mid-October, Russians have been attacking on multiple fronts. At the same time, Ukraine faces both external and internal challenges. Let’s start with the Ukrainian problems. 2/
Ukraine experienced unfortunate losses in 2023. The summer offensive was costly, but it didn’t reach any strategic goals. After the summer, the losses were increasingly difficult to fully replace. The military leadership likely saw the incoming problems. 3/
I watched Tucker Carlson’s interview with Putin. It exemplifies how a person who thinks too much of himself is put into the position of a useful idiot.
Dictators aren't interested in truth or journalism; those who think otherwise are only deceiving themselves. 1/ 🧵
Carlson's bias is well-known. He has repeatedly criticized Western media and leaned towards the Russian narrative.
Even though there was no critical element involved in the interview, he may have genuinely thought he still could get something valuable out of it. 2/
For me, the expectations were low. Everything Putin said was predictable, as is often the case with dictators. All the talking points have been heard before. The end result was a boring lecture, where Carlson was unable and likely also unwilling to challenge Putin. 3/
Russian operations in the Kupiansk direction have continued with varying intensity for months.
Russian gains have been very limited, but this evening the Russians announced that they have taken the village of Krokhmalne. 1/6
Ukrainians have also reported continuous Russian attacks in the Synkivka area. Despite Russian efforts, they haven't been able to punch through Synkivka, which would be the shortest route to Kupiansk.
There's also no indication of Russians continuing far beyond Krokhmalne. 2/
Krokhmalne, a small village with only a handful of houses, is the first Ukrainian village the Russians have been able to capture anywhere in months.
It's worth noting that they actually re-captured it, as Ukraine liberated the village in autumn 2022 (and took some POWs too). 3/