Emil Kastehelmi Profile picture
Sep 24, 2023 12 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Ukraine has expanded its control of the areas west of Verbove, and armoured vehicles are operating beyond the first Surovikin line. At the same time, the villages of Andriivka and Klishchiivka were liberated south of Bakhmut.

Are we seeing a breakthrough? Time for a thread. 1/ Image
In September, Ukraine advanced a couple of kilometres in the fields west of Verbove, beyond the main defensive line. They also captured fortified positions south of Robotyne and continued further south. Russian counterattacks have not been able to recapture lost positions. 2/ Image
Ukraine is also now able to operate various armoured vehicles on the other side of the Surovikin line. Even though immediate Russian anti-tank capabilities are likely somewhat suppressed, larger Ukrainian troop concentrations and movements can still be seen from the air. 3/
Even though Ukraine is slowly making progress every month, we haven’t seen an actual breakthrough.

In a breakthrough, an attack not only penetrates the enemy lines, but contributes to a more significant collapse of enemy defences in a certain area. 4/
In a breakthrough, there should be exploitable and reinforceable success, which brings the defender into a reactive state, unable to carry out the original defensive plans. In this situation, the defender should be disorganized, either forced to retreat or risk heavy losses. 5/
Manoeuvres with mechanised units should also be possible, as speed is a central element for keeping the momentum up. If the enemy can decisively limit or even totally prevent all such operations, a breakthrough isn’t really happening. 6/
Even though Ukraine has not achieved a breakthrough during this counteroffensive in any direction, we have seen a breach. Ukrainians have captured multiple forward fighting positions and control a section of the first main defence line, also known as the first Surovikin line. 7/
The Russians are still able to conduct an organized defence. Their lines are bending, but not breaking. The salient at the Robotyne-Verbove area is of course a problem for them, but they seem to have enough resources to prevent the situation from spiraling out of control. 8/
Can we still see a breakthrough during this year?

I find it unlikely, if the Russians keep using their troops in a sensible manner and focus on repelling the Ukrainian attacks. However, incompetence is a big factor which can have significant effects, at least locally. 9/
One important variable is Russia's losses. It is not clearly known how challenging the situation actually is for them.

At some point, Putin likely has to mobilize again. Delaying this decision can have serious consequences for the Russians, positive for the Ukrainians. 10/
Breakthroughs have been generally rare in this war after the first weeks. Ukrainians managed to do one in Kharkiv last autumn with significant consequences. A smaller one was achieved by the Russians, when they captured Lysychansk in summer 2022. 11/
Our team at the @Black_BirdGroup continues to monitor the situation. Our interactive map is updated (almost) daily. Remember to click the “Russian Defence Lines” layer on from the side panel, it helps you understand the situation better. 12/12

scribblemaps.com/maps/view/The-…

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More from @emilkastehelmi

Aug 15
According to Ukrainian 1st Corps (Azov), the situation east of Dobropillia has been stabilized and the Russians have been pushed out of six villages. They also reported that the combined Russian losses in the area are 385 men, 37 vehicles, 2 AFVs and 1 tank.

A few thoughts: 1/🧵 Image
It is evident that this operation was not merely a few infiltration groups slipping past Ukrainian lines only to be destroyed. While it may have begun as a lighter operation, Russian forces were prepared to exploit breakthroughs, successfully advancing into the Ukrainian rear. 2/
If the reported losses are accurate, it implies multiple Russian battalions were engaged in the battle, with many still fighting, as Russia has not lost all gained territory. The Russians are now likely trying to consolidate and defend the southern part of the corridor. 3/
Read 9 tweets
Aug 12
Russians have recently advanced deep in the area east of Dobropillia. The situation has concerning elements which can escalate it into a serious crisis, but at this stage we’re still not witnessing a disaster – and by definition, not even a breakthrough. I’ll explain. 1/ Image
The situation had been deteriorating for some time. The Russians had been attempting to advance in the Dobropillia direction earlier this month. A gray zone had formed in the area, as the Ukrainians struggled to maintain a firm defence against the infiltrating enemy. 2/
Russia has an advantage in expendable manpower – once it finds a weak spot, it can aggressively try to exploit it by pushing more infantry into the area. Small infiltration groups will try to advance as far as possible, which is enabled by the porous Ukrainian defences. 3/
Read 13 tweets
Jul 3
According to our data, the Russians did not accelerate their advance during June. The pace isn't slow, but most of the Russian gains last month were in less crucial areas.

It can be argued that Russia mostly wasted June without achieving significant success. 1/
The situation isn't great for Ukraine, but it could be worse.

The salient between Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka is still an issue, but it didn't rapidly expand in June. The front in Sumy was also stabilized. The worst-case scenarios didn't materialize, at least not yet. 2/
A large part of the Russian gains were south of Pokrovsk, where they are pushing towards the administrative borders of Donetsk oblast. Entering Dnipropetrovsk oblast doesn't change the general situation much, even though there's a lot of Russian propaganda about it. 3/
Read 5 tweets
Jun 5
On June 1, Ukraine conducted a successful operation targeting Russian strategic bombers and other aircraft.

Our battle damage assessment can confirm the following losses: 12 destroyed and 3 damaged aircraft, of which 14 are strategic bombers and 1 is a transport aircraft. 1/ Image
From videos and satellite images, 23 distinct aircraft were identified in total as potentially targeted. The condition of 4 aircraft seen in videos remains unclear. Available evidence doesn’t allow for assessing potential damage or whether nearby drones even detonated. 2/ Image
The highest possible number for total losses is 19, if all aircraft in unknown condition are actually damaged. However, this can’t be confirmed at the moment.

In 4 cases, it appears the drones likely missed, did not explode or cause visible damage for other reasons. 3/
Read 17 tweets
Jun 1
Ukraine has struck multiple strategic bombers in Olenya, Murmansk oblast, 1800 km from Ukraine. This is one of the most successful drone strikes against against Russian air bases in the entire war. The extent of the damage is yet unclear, but I can already say it's significant. 1/
Russia had transferred the valuable planes to Olenya to avoid the exact scenario we're seeing on the videos and photos coming from the area. Bombers operating from the field have repeatedly struck Ukraine with cruise missiles. 2/ Image
These are major and expensive losses for Russia that can't be replaced quickly.

Additionally, the air base in Belaya, roughly 4300 km from Ukraine, has been hit. Also Dyagilevo and Ivanovo air bases are burning. This is a very, very successful day for Ukraine. 3/
Read 5 tweets
May 28
During April and May, the Russians formed a dangerous salient against the Ukrainian defenses between Kostiantynivka and Pokrovsk.

The so-called spring offensive has progressed relatively quickly, and serious issues may lie ahead in the near future. 1/ Image
Defending forces in the area initially consisted of newer, less capable brigades, such as the 142nd, 155th & 157th. Elements from other units were also present. Reserves have been brought in – first the 36th marine brigade, and now the 82nd air assault brigade, among others. 2/
Russia's probable operational objectives for the coming months in the area include:

Formation of an encirclement threat around Kostiantynivka

Formation of an encirclement threat around Pokrovsk

Disruption of Ukrainian supply & command elements in the cities in the AO 3/ Image
Read 13 tweets

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