Emil Kastehelmi Profile picture
Sep 24, 2023 12 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Ukraine has expanded its control of the areas west of Verbove, and armoured vehicles are operating beyond the first Surovikin line. At the same time, the villages of Andriivka and Klishchiivka were liberated south of Bakhmut.

Are we seeing a breakthrough? Time for a thread. 1/ Image
In September, Ukraine advanced a couple of kilometres in the fields west of Verbove, beyond the main defensive line. They also captured fortified positions south of Robotyne and continued further south. Russian counterattacks have not been able to recapture lost positions. 2/ Image
Ukraine is also now able to operate various armoured vehicles on the other side of the Surovikin line. Even though immediate Russian anti-tank capabilities are likely somewhat suppressed, larger Ukrainian troop concentrations and movements can still be seen from the air. 3/
Even though Ukraine is slowly making progress every month, we haven’t seen an actual breakthrough.

In a breakthrough, an attack not only penetrates the enemy lines, but contributes to a more significant collapse of enemy defences in a certain area. 4/
In a breakthrough, there should be exploitable and reinforceable success, which brings the defender into a reactive state, unable to carry out the original defensive plans. In this situation, the defender should be disorganized, either forced to retreat or risk heavy losses. 5/
Manoeuvres with mechanised units should also be possible, as speed is a central element for keeping the momentum up. If the enemy can decisively limit or even totally prevent all such operations, a breakthrough isn’t really happening. 6/
Even though Ukraine has not achieved a breakthrough during this counteroffensive in any direction, we have seen a breach. Ukrainians have captured multiple forward fighting positions and control a section of the first main defence line, also known as the first Surovikin line. 7/
The Russians are still able to conduct an organized defence. Their lines are bending, but not breaking. The salient at the Robotyne-Verbove area is of course a problem for them, but they seem to have enough resources to prevent the situation from spiraling out of control. 8/
Can we still see a breakthrough during this year?

I find it unlikely, if the Russians keep using their troops in a sensible manner and focus on repelling the Ukrainian attacks. However, incompetence is a big factor which can have significant effects, at least locally. 9/
One important variable is Russia's losses. It is not clearly known how challenging the situation actually is for them.

At some point, Putin likely has to mobilize again. Delaying this decision can have serious consequences for the Russians, positive for the Ukrainians. 10/
Breakthroughs have been generally rare in this war after the first weeks. Ukrainians managed to do one in Kharkiv last autumn with significant consequences. A smaller one was achieved by the Russians, when they captured Lysychansk in summer 2022. 11/
Our team at the @Black_BirdGroup continues to monitor the situation. Our interactive map is updated (almost) daily. Remember to click the “Russian Defence Lines” layer on from the side panel, it helps you understand the situation better. 12/12

scribblemaps.com/maps/view/The-…

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More from @emilkastehelmi

Mar 3
Jos Suomi ei voi lähettää edes yhtä pataljoonaa tulitaukoa takaamaan Ukrainaan, en ihan ymmärrä, miksi me olisimme oikeutettuja odottamaan aidosti vaikeita turvallisuuspoliittisiä päätöksiä vaativaa apua keneltäkään kriisitilanteessa.

"Koska Nato" ei ole riittävä argumentti. 1/
Toisekseen, jos Suomen Puolustusvoimat ovat siinä tilassa, ettei edes yhden pataljoonan varustaminen ja lähettäminen onnistu edes silloin, kun koko Euroopan turvallisuusjärjestyksen sorvaaminen on käynnissä, en ihan ymmärrä mihin puolustusbudjettimme oikein uppoaa. 2/
Pataljoona tai kaksi Ukrainaan tulitaukoa takaamaan toisi Suomeen myös arvokasta oppia ja osaamista, josta nimenomaan on kriisitilanteessa hyötyä. Reserviläisiä löytyy kyllä, ei jää vapaaehtoisista kiinni. Tämä olisi investointi, joka tuottaisi turvallisuutta myös Suomeen. 3/
Read 5 tweets
Feb 24
Ukraine has been fighting for three years in increasingly difficult conditions. Today, the Nordic and Baltic countries announced that they will “pledge to provide equipment and training for a scalable brigade-sized unit”. It’s a textbook example of too little, too late. 1/ Image
As far as I understand from this statement, there will be a new Ukrainian brigade based on Nordic & Baltic training and equipment. In theory, this is positive news. This could, at its best, produce a highly capable unit, trained by some of the best militaries in Europe. 2/
But here’s the catch: this brigade is being formed at a time when Ukraine faces a chronic manpower shortage. Simply put, Ukraine doesn’t lack brigades, it lacks men. Depending on its structure, this Nordic-Baltic-trained brigade could be somewhere between 3000-5000 soldiers. 3/
Read 9 tweets
Feb 10
Ukraine has carried out a series of counterattacks in several directions, especially southeast of Pokrovsk. They have entered Pishchane, but currently it's unclear if they have fully retaken the village.

At the same time, the Russians are still attacking in the area too. 1/ Image
Ukrainians are achieving limited success. It's likely an attempt to further grind down the Russian attacks which have slowed down during the last two months. The Ukrainians certainly also want to contain the threat of an encirclement around Pokrovsk. 2/
The Russians have multiple simultaneous issues and they have taken significant losses for many months. At some point the offensive has to slow down, and we may be seeing that currently. I don't expect a major collapse to happen, but this is still a positive signal for Ukraine. 3/
Read 5 tweets
Feb 7
After six months of combat in the Kursk salient, the Ukrainians launched another attack in the southeastern direction of Sudzha. The Ukrainians seemingly breached the first Russian defences, and an armored column managed to advance up to 5-7 kilometers deep towards Ulanok. 1/ Image
The attack was carried out by a battlegroup of likely 1-2 battalions in size, also equipped with engineering vehicles. Ukraine has a relatively large grouping of air assault, mechanized and other brigades in Kursk, but it’s unclear which participated in this operation. 2/
The attack appeared to advance on a narrow front towards Ulanok. The troops took control of the small villages of Cherkasskaya Konopelka and Fanaseevka along the road. It is unclear how far the Ukrainians advanced – possibly as far as the outskirts of the village of Ulanok. 3/
Read 8 tweets
Feb 2
Vellyka Novosilka and Kurakhove have fallen, and Russians continue their offensive towards Pokrovsk.

In this thread I will examine what is to be expected of the most critical area of the eastern front in the near future, and what can the Russians realistically achieve. 1/ Image
The losses of Velyka Novosilka and also Kurakhove ultimately had a rather limited impact on the broader dynamics of the battlefield in the southern and central Donetsk directions. The defensive importance of the towns had already decreased earlier, as the flanks fell. 2/
Apart from simply reaching the administrative borders of the Donetsk region, there is little to be achieved in the Velyka Novosilka direction now. There are only small villages, fields and some limiting terrain. Ukrainians have fortified many dominant heights and ridges. 3/
Read 17 tweets
Jan 5
Ukrainians have continued their attacks in Kursk. Today, an armored column advanced towards Bolshoye Soldatskoye, and reportedly fighting is ongoing in other villages too.

I find it unlikely that these actions could produce very significant results. 1/ Image
The Ukrainians are facing a stronger enemy. It's possible they achieve some tactical success with the element of surprise, and in the best case scenarios they may be able to enter some villages. In the big picture, however, the general situation will likely remain the same. 2/
The Ukrainians have lost more than half of the area in Kursk that they controlled at most in August-September 2024. Even if the new attacks were to advance ten kilometers, the battles would still be fought in the same general areas where fighting has been going on for months. 3/
Read 10 tweets

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