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Rich Baris
@Peoples_Pundit
Sep 25 • 2 tweets • 1 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
For those who comment on polling but don't actually know what the Hell they are talking about...

It's a consensus that Trump leads with new and non-registered voters by a fairly large margin, including nearly 20 points in @premisedata and many others.

Read.

You're welcome.
Image
USAToday just published a series of articles on this via @davidpaleologos. If polls do not screen out non-registered and unlikely pops, among which Trump leads by roughly 20 points, and have a relatively small randomized sample, a Trump +10 is not unexpected, not a conspiracy.

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More from @Peoples_Pundit

Rich Baris
Sep 26
A few things people who misread the electorate never understood, and why things they thought would hurt Trump have actually made him stronger.

1. Regime Credibility

This isn't the 1980s. GE voters do not trust his enemies. FBI, DOJ, etc. are deeply corrupt and voters know it.
Once upon a time, federal prosecutors had credibility and their accusations in indictments were trusted. But nobody trusts them anymore, with good reason.

It's been bad for years, but bad actors like @Comey, @petestrzok, Weismann, etc, totally killed all faith in the feds.
@Comey @petestrzok Now on to the primary.

2. GOP Voters Were Not "Ready to Move on from Trump"

Even at DeSantis' high water mark, the data never suggested a big enough lane existed to derail Trump. Nobody ever dominated the wine track (educated) enough to counter Trump dominating the beer track.
Read 6 tweets
Rich Baris
May 30
Post Script: The scumbag who did that owes us thousands of dollars and is the reason we @BIGDATAPOLL now have a pay first policy.

He's basically a former cop pretending to be a political strategist who folds up shop with each billing cycle, because the law makes it hard to chase… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Laura, when they first pulled that libel, attempted to publish his deadbeat account for all to see, but @elonmusk and his fake crusade against speech suppression kept suppressing it.

In fact, she tried again tonight and it refused to publish, again.

So... I think I'll do it...
Everyone ready for the emails?

This is going to be hilarious!
Read 6 tweets
Rich Baris
May 20
The DeSantis strategy 'he's the anti-lockdown champion' isn't working for a few reasons, the biggest being 1) voters aren't stupid and 2) it's not true.

As @barnes_law correctly pointed out, he was still threatening businesses 2+ months after Trump said, "the cure cannot be… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
And let's not get started on masks and the vaccine. He was faster than most governors, but not exactly clean on this issue.

Here he is SUPER stoked to JAB this World War II Veteran with the Pfizer Shot.

He died shortly after.
foxnews.com/health/world-w…
Point being, politics are politics, and that's the nature of the game. But why are these angles not working for DeSantis AND, moreover, why are they dug in like ticks pretending nothing is wrong?

They attack everyone, and conduct ZERO introspection. It's rather pathetic.
Read 4 tweets
Rich Baris
May 19
We have seen (unsurprisingly) a major difference in support by "mode" of collection. Trump always does worse in live interviews (mid-high 40s) and DeSantis does the best (low-mid 30s).

It's the only mode in which Trump never hit 50%.

This is tonight.

It's going in the wrong… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… Image
It means DeSantis has now fallen into the 20s even among live interviews, and if the online and SMS were to even remain the same, he'd fall to about 15% or lower.

It's ugly, folks. Ugly.
Also important to explain those are just "raw" unweighted results we are importing from live interviews. Among those 157 interviews, this is their education, which is clearly very, VERY, educated for a GOP primary.

My followers/viewers knows what this means. But that's not what… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… Image
Read 4 tweets
Rich Baris
May 13
Astonishing how few pollsters and pundits are explaining to people the significance of a candidate being at or above 50%.

Yes, even this "early in the process".

We spent a lot of time on it on the show today, i.e. Historical & Polling Stats 101.

Omission is misleading people.
Yes, even this early in the process, at this point:

No candidate has lost the nomination with 60+ endorsements from NTL and Gov elected offices, in the modern era.

No candidate has lost the nomination polling at or above 50%, in the modern era. peoplespundit.locals.com/post/3986033/w…
For the lazy who reply to tweets without having the intellect or attention span to read the article outlining an argument in great detail, let's walk you through what you missed.

1. This is not 2016. The NeverTrump/Anti-Trump vote has never been a "majority". Meaning, the… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Read 7 tweets
Rich Baris
Apr 13
Ron DeSantis, who would have lost in 2018 if not for the president, had absolutely nothing to do with it.

Vote for whom you want, folks. Seriously. But I absolutely can’t tolerate bullshit.

Trump’s policy toward Venezuela and Cuba, coupled with his outreach, bonus… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
The “Old Southern White Democrat” registration shift from DEM to REP was over before Barack Obama left office.

State-to-state migration, specifically from NE USA and California, sent Florida a ton of REP voters who settled in the Tampa Area, and South.

During his… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Those of you who have watched Inside The Numbers since before 2020 know full well what I am talking about and know this is a bullshit talking point.

Lastly, gubernatorial elections are the least predictive indicator for future presidential performance.

Everyone serious knows… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Read 4 tweets

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