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Here's my estimate of current COVID cases/day in the US and my rationale. I am using hospital admission data, which is only current until two weeks ago, but this is the most recent that became available today.
Here's my estimate of current COVID cases/day in the US and my rationale. I am using hospital admission data, which is only current until two weeks ago, but this is the most recent that became available today.
2- For the week starting 9/10, there were 17,731 reported COVID admissions. You can see that the change in suspected reporting requirements dropped admission numbers by half, so I'll double admissions to 35,462. Divide that by 7 to get 5,066 admissions per day.
3- About 1% of infections require hospitalization, so from that number alone, one can assume that this accounted for 506,600 infections per day.
4- However, vaccination reduces the risk of hospitalization from COVID from anywhere from 3.5 to 17.7 times.
jamanetwork.com/journals/jamai…
jamanetwork.com/journals/jamai…
6- From points 4 and 5, it's reasonable to assume that there is much more active infection in the community than is represented by hospital admission data. In addition, many hospitals are not testing on admission unless symptomatic.
7- There does seem to be a slight downward trend, although I would not rely on a single data point to make any assumptions about the current curve. That leads me to think that there are about 700,000 cases/day in the US.
8- The last time we were at that high a level was the time around Jan 2022, which was the first omicron surge.
9-9 To me, that is very alarming since schools really are just getting underway. If you aren't wearing a respirator, do so. Avoid indoor public spaces, improve ventilation and filtration, and get the new booster.
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