Dave Jones Profile picture
Sep 26, 2023 7 tweets 3 min read Read on X
The IEA's 2021 Net Zero Roadmap was groundbreaking.

Today, their first update is released.

What has changed in 2½ years?

My 6 observations... 🧵
Downgraded: CO2 capture (CCS), CO2 removal, hydrogen, (+bioenergy). These hyped solutions (some say distractions) get a reality check.

Upgraded: solar, batteries, EV and electrification. It's clearer than ever that our future energy system will run on clean power. Image
Again, this report doesn't mention "fossil fuel phaseout"🤔

BUT CO2 emissions - and therefore fossil fuel use - fall by ⅔rds(!) in a little more than a decade (from 2022 to 2035).

Surely reducing the first ⅔rds ASAP is more important than arguing when the last ⅓rd will stop? Image
Lots of solutions are needed. From the 2021 report, it was hard to tell the most important.

In this report, they make it easier for us.

Four solutions give 80% of the effort to 2030: Image
Priorities=>
1. Tripling renewables
2. Doubling energy efficiency
3. Cut methane by ¾'s

Hold up, where is "electrification"? It's missing in this key graphic b/c it overlaps with efficiency (EV's+heat pumps use ⅓rd primary energy), and it overlaps renewables (which power them). Image
But international policy makers are simple people. Even 4 solutions is too complicated;)

The IEA want you to remember only two solutions: tripling renewables and doubling energy efficiency. Image
So as we go towards COP28, the IEA clearly want to get a global deal that triples renewables and doubles energy efficiency... and that would give us the two most important building blocks to reduce fossil fuel use by ⅔rd's by 2035.💪<END> Image

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More from @CleanPowerDave

Sep 22
China solar panel exports - AUGUST UPDATE.

NEW RECORDS for both panel AND cell exports.. Image
Image
CELLS: Turkiye took a big leap up. Not sure why?

3 countries accounted 80% of all China's cell exports in August, as they build up panel manufacturing capacity. Image
PANELS: China exports up 20% compared to previous month to a record 25GW in August.

The rise is from a little bit of everywhere... Image
Read 23 tweets
Aug 26
NEW: The first evidence of a solar take-off in Africa☀️✈️

x33 rise in Algeria🇩🇿 solar panel imports in the 12 mths to June 2025, compared to previous 12 mths.
x8 in Zambia🇿🇲
x7 in Botswana🇧🇼
x6 in Sudan🇸🇩
x3 in each of Liberia🇱🇷, DRC🇨🇩, Benin🇧🇯, Angola🇦🇴, Ethiopia🇪🇹

🧵 Image
Overall African imports surged 60% in the last 12 months to 15GW.

And it's not driven by South Africa - over the last two years, the imports of solar panels outside of SA have nearly tripled from 4GW to 11GW... Image
Many countries in Africa are now importing solar panels at scale. Image
Read 8 tweets
Jun 21
NEW: Cheaper batteries mean near-24/365 solar is now economic☀️

We analysed 18 years of hourly insolation data at 12 places, to see how close to 24/365 electricity it was possible to get.

The sunniest places get over 90% - and up to 99% - of the way... from just $100/MWh. 🧵 Image
We launched it today (on a Saturday!) because today is the Summer Solstice in the northern hemisphere, and you could theoretically generate 24-hour solar in the Arctic tonight without battery!

(tenuous rating: 8/10) Image
Getting to 24-hour solar is easy tho: just add battery!

Getting to 24/365 solar is hard cos of pesky clouds - and batteries aren't economic to store electricity between days.

Fortunately though, even on "cloudy" days, you often still get more solar power than you might think.. Image
Read 10 tweets
Apr 8
OUT TODAY: The global electricity transition in graphics... Image
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Read 20 tweets
Mar 12
OUT TODAY: How is the US electricity transition doing?🇺🇸🧵

WIND+SOLAR OVER TOOK COAL: Wind and solar now at 17% of US electricity supply; coal falls to a record low of 15%.

Only 6 years ago in 2018, coal generation was x3 that of wind and solar🤯 Image
Wind and solar generation has now overtaken coal in 24 states💪

Illinois was the latest to join the ranks in 2024, following Arizona, Colorado, Florida and Maryland in 2023. Image
Solar was the star, rising 27%⭐️☀️

Incredibly, 32% of California's annual electricity supply and 30% of Nevada was from solar. That's higher than any country in the world!

Yet 28 states generated less than 5% of their electricity from solar in 2024🌖 Image
Read 20 tweets
Dec 18, 2024
🚨🚨WAKE UP CALL 🚨🚨

Soaring electricity demand means global coal demand **may** no longer fall in the coming 3yrs.

This is a big change in prognosis from just 12 months ago.. 🧵 Image
The revisions for global coal demand have increased quite sizably.. Image
Coal demand is VERY sensitive to electricity demand.

A rise of **just 1.2pp** in global electricity demand in the IEA in the next 3-yr period led to a **3.4pp** rise in total coal demand.

(Makes sense - coal is 1/3 of elec demand; RES+nuclear+gas forecast is unchanged) Image
Read 10 tweets

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