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Dave Jones Profile picture
Dave Jones
@CleanPowerDave
Co-founder @Ember_Energy💚 Chief analyst tracking global electricity transition👍 Electricity analyst since 2000, still learning🤓
Dec 18, 2024 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
🚨🚨WAKE UP CALL 🚨🚨

Soaring electricity demand means global coal demand **may** no longer fall in the coming 3yrs.

This is a big change in prognosis from just 12 months ago.. 🧵 Image The revisions for global coal demand have increased quite sizably.. Image
Oct 30, 2024 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
This graphic is going viral.

This is how it was calculated... let's get geeky🤓... Image It's based on this table in today's IEA report.

Solar is x100 coal because...
- SOLAR: 2GW x 17% utilisation x 40 years = 120TWh
- COAL: 150kt x 8MWh/t = 1.2TWh (note this *energy* content of coal; you'd need x300 as many ships for the same *electricity* content as a ship of solar panels)

Notes on solar:
- The "40 years" and "17% utilisation" is what i've used to backcalculate their x100 calculation and show they are reasonable calculations.
- A container ship is assumed as 15000TEU, far short of the largest container ship at 25000TEU.
- 2GW across 15,000TEU means there's 133KW of solar panels in a container. Useful to know:)

iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/48d2ba3…Image
Oct 16, 2024 • 13 tweets • 4 min read
The IEA's #1 flagship report, and the bible of the energy transition.

So, what's new? My key takeaways... We are firmly in the Age of Electricity💪 Image
Sep 19, 2024 • 12 tweets • 4 min read
NEW: The rise of global solar this year was significantly underestimated. AGAIN.

Of the 6 major forecasters out there, all of them have been scrambling to update their forecasts through this year.. Image We forecast 2024 solar additions will be 593GW, a rise of 29%.

At this point in the year, there is enough data whereby uncertainty is now relatively small. (BTW, this was a MAJOR undertaking for us🫣) Image
Jul 3, 2024 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Q: Why have batteries become so cheap?
A: Because many no longer need expensive minerals.

The rise of the LFP battery means 40% of all EV batteries globally (higher in China), do not contain any nickel or cobalt… Image ..and less minerals means lower CO2 footprint. About 30% lower last year, than nickel batteries.... Image
Jun 21, 2024 • 20 tweets • 6 min read
Only 33% of EU's electricity was from fossil in 2023.

However, that hides that hour-by-hour, it ranged from 15% to 50%.

To get to 0% fossil, we need 0% in EVERY HOUR.

Here's a long thread on flexibility 🧵 Image Let's start with seasonal flexibility, all the way through to millisecond flexibility..
May 8, 2024 • 14 tweets • 4 min read
The latest on the global electricity transition🧵

Wind and solar produced 13% of global electricity in 2023; renewables, in total, produced 30%.. Image The rise in wind and solar has ALREADY slowed fossil generation growth from about 3%/year to 1%/year..

And 2023 fossil generation would have been 22% higher without wind and solar.. Image
Apr 22, 2024 • 13 tweets • 3 min read
Today, the @IEA has started tracking progress of all 10 things that every country in the world committed to at @COP28_UAE.

You can't say there's no ambition!?... 🧵
#DecadeofImplementation Image Image
Feb 7, 2024 • 26 tweets • 7 min read
2023 was the year that the EU electricity transition got real, as power sector CO2 emissions fell by almost a FIFTH 🇪🇺💪🧵 Image The cause of the fall in coal+gas fall was roughly:
- 40% due to rising wind+solar generation
- 20% due to a rebound in hydro generation
- 40% due to fall in electricity demand Image
Jan 24, 2024 • 11 tweets • 4 min read
What is interesting in the @IEA's flagship electricity report out today? LOTS 🧵

Peaking China. More certainty that China's coal generation has peaked in 2023 and will begin to fall in 2024 and beyond..Image Peaking global power sector emissions. More certainty that GLOBALLY, 2023 was the peak power emissions...Image
Jan 11, 2024 • 13 tweets • 5 min read
Awesome new @IEA flagship report out on renewables.

Here's what I found most interesting...

1. The renewables forecast was upgraded by 33%💪
---- 90% from China, due to more certainty on their renewables strategy
---- 90% from solar, as boom continues to surprise Image 2. Why the big upwards China revision? (It was revised up 64%!) I found this very interesting... Image
Dec 4, 2023 • 15 tweets • 5 min read
This weekend there were so many "deals", this one passed by:

Developed countries agreed to cut overall energy use by 18% by 2030👏💪

What?! Really!? What are they going to do to act on it? Do they even know what they've signed onto?! 🧵 Image On Saturday, every one of the 38 OECD countries (except Israel, New Zealand and Turkey) signed onto a pledge to triple global renewables and double energy efficiency by 2030...
Oct 24, 2023 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
This is the bible of energy transitions.
Do find a quiet place and read it;)

The graphs are soooo rich in great data and messaging. Here are my favourite... RENEWABLES UPGRADED, AGAIN: Image
Oct 1, 2023 • 22 tweets • 5 min read
SUNDAY THREAD:

This week the IEA updated their groundbreaking 1.5 degree Net Zero report. I was lucky enough to be a peer reviewer, and I want to explain in my own words what I think it means..

Yes we can still keep to 1.5 degrees! Were you ready to give up? So many people were - myself included. Tech - especially solar and electric cars - and an acceleration in the US, EU and China, have changed what is possible - even as the IEA have got real and scaled down their expectations for hydrogen and carbon capture. The future will be even more electric than
Sep 26, 2023 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
The IEA's 2021 Net Zero Roadmap was groundbreaking.

Today, their first update is released.

What has changed in 2½ years?

My 6 observations... 🧵 Downgraded: CO2 capture (CCS), CO2 removal, hydrogen, (+bioenergy). These hyped solutions (some say distractions) get a reality check.

Upgraded: solar, batteries, EV and electrification. It's clearer than ever that our future energy system will run on clean power. Image
May 23, 2023 • 13 tweets • 3 min read
How clean is the electricity used by an electric car or a heat pump?

I'd argue that IF it directly leads to building more clean power, then it should count as 100% clean power, not as average or marginal "grid carbon intensity".. Let's say IF (e.g.) China decides to build solar panels explicitly to provide the total power needed for its electric cars - AND IT WOULDN'T HAVE BUILT THOSE SOLAR PANELS OTHERWISE - then the electricity to power the cars should be measured by the CO2 intensity of solar panels -
Feb 3, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Yes, EU coal generation did rise in 2022... Bring on 2023;)..
Jan 31, 2023 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
Is it REALLY possible that EU fossil generation could fall by 20% this year?!

We think so... let me explain this graphic... Image NUCLEAR: same generation in 2023 as in 2022..

French nuclear will rebound somewhat in 2023 (already many units are back online), and this will be offset by the final German closures in April and the Belgium unit closure today. Image
Jan 31, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
2019: EU wind and solar overtake coal
2022: EU wind and solar overtake gas

Yes, we are at THAT stage of the transition already💪 In fact, wind and solar overtook gas AND nuclear last year, to become the EU's biggest combined source of generation in 2022...
Jan 31, 2023 • 17 tweets • 6 min read
The EU coal bounce is dead.

Let me explain why 🧵 First, why did coal rise earlier in the year?

Simple: there was a 7%(!) deficit in Europe's total generation in 2022 because of a nuclear and hydro shortfall.

Only 1/6 of that gap was made in coal...
Nov 15, 2022 • 15 tweets • 6 min read
So here it is.. a 200-page handbook on coal phaseout!

What should we make of it?

First, the headline. Having worked on coal phaseout for almost 10 years, It’s difficult for me to express just how monumental these words are, coming from the @IEA... 🧵 “Net zero pledges cover 95% of coal consumption, so coal phaseout is not a question of “if”, it's a question of "when". Which is just as well, because these net zero dates won’t be enough…