Downgraded: CO2 capture (CCS), CO2 removal, hydrogen, (+bioenergy). These hyped solutions (some say distractions) get a reality check.
Upgraded: solar, batteries, EV and electrification. It's clearer than ever that our future energy system will run on clean power.
Again, this report doesn't mention "fossil fuel phaseout"🤔
BUT CO2 emissions - and therefore fossil fuel use - fall by ⅔rds(!) in a little more than a decade (from 2022 to 2035).
Surely reducing the first ⅔rds ASAP is more important than arguing when the last ⅓rd will stop?
Lots of solutions are needed. From the 2021 report, it was hard to tell the most important.
In this report, they make it easier for us.
Four solutions give 80% of the effort to 2030:
Priorities=> 1. Tripling renewables 2. Doubling energy efficiency 3. Cut methane by ¾'s
Hold up, where is "electrification"? It's missing in this key graphic b/c it overlaps with efficiency (EV's+heat pumps use ⅓rd primary energy), and it overlaps renewables (which power them).
But international policy makers are simple people. Even 4 solutions is too complicated;)
The IEA want you to remember only two solutions: tripling renewables and doubling energy efficiency.
So as we go towards COP28, the IEA clearly want to get a global deal that triples renewables and doubles energy efficiency... and that would give us the two most important building blocks to reduce fossil fuel use by ⅔rd's by 2035.💪<END>
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How clean is the electricity used by an electric car or a heat pump?
I'd argue that IF it directly leads to building more clean power, then it should count as 100% clean power, not as average or marginal "grid carbon intensity"..
Let's say IF (e.g.) China decides to build solar panels explicitly to provide the total power needed for its electric cars - AND IT WOULDN'T HAVE BUILT THOSE SOLAR PANELS OTHERWISE - then the electricity to power the cars should be measured by the CO2 intensity of solar panels -
- regardless of what the grid intensity is.
(The solar CO2 intensity is far from zero - esp in China panels, where coal is still used in all stages from polysilicon, aluminium frames, glass and assembly - but it's still MUCH MUCH smaller than coal. No power is 100% clean - yet!)
Is it REALLY possible that EU fossil generation could fall by 20% this year?!
We think so... let me explain this graphic...
NUCLEAR: same generation in 2023 as in 2022..
French nuclear will rebound somewhat in 2023 (already many units are back online), and this will be offset by the final German closures in April and the Belgium unit closure today.
HYDRO: After the megadrought of 2022, 2023 will rebound by 40TWh in 2023, 80% of the way to the 2001-2021 average.
Already reservoirs are mostly reset. We have no reason to think 2023 rainfall will be below average.
So here it is.. a 200-page handbook on coal phaseout!
What should we make of it?
First, the headline. Having worked on coal phaseout for almost 10 years, It’s difficult for me to express just how monumental these words are, coming from the @IEA... 🧵
“Net zero pledges cover 95% of coal consumption, so coal phaseout is not a question of “if”, it's a question of "when". Which is just as well, because these net zero dates won’t be enough…
Yes, we need a 2040 global coal power phaseout, according to the IEA's Net Zero.
Just look at that gap in 2030 in emerging countries.. This is the real problem of keeping to 1.5 degrees in one red rectangle…