Dave Jones Profile picture
Sep 26 7 tweets 3 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
The IEA's 2021 Net Zero Roadmap was groundbreaking.

Today, their first update is released.

What has changed in 2½ years?

My 6 observations... 🧵
Downgraded: CO2 capture (CCS), CO2 removal, hydrogen, (+bioenergy). These hyped solutions (some say distractions) get a reality check.

Upgraded: solar, batteries, EV and electrification. It's clearer than ever that our future energy system will run on clean power. Image
Again, this report doesn't mention "fossil fuel phaseout"🤔

BUT CO2 emissions - and therefore fossil fuel use - fall by ⅔rds(!) in a little more than a decade (from 2022 to 2035).

Surely reducing the first ⅔rds ASAP is more important than arguing when the last ⅓rd will stop? Image
Lots of solutions are needed. From the 2021 report, it was hard to tell the most important.

In this report, they make it easier for us.

Four solutions give 80% of the effort to 2030: Image
Priorities=>
1. Tripling renewables
2. Doubling energy efficiency
3. Cut methane by ¾'s

Hold up, where is "electrification"? It's missing in this key graphic b/c it overlaps with efficiency (EV's+heat pumps use ⅓rd primary energy), and it overlaps renewables (which power them). Image
But international policy makers are simple people. Even 4 solutions is too complicated;)

The IEA want you to remember only two solutions: tripling renewables and doubling energy efficiency. Image
So as we go towards COP28, the IEA clearly want to get a global deal that triples renewables and doubles energy efficiency... and that would give us the two most important building blocks to reduce fossil fuel use by ⅔rd's by 2035.💪<END> Image

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More from @CleanPowerDave

May 23
How clean is the electricity used by an electric car or a heat pump?

I'd argue that IF it directly leads to building more clean power, then it should count as 100% clean power, not as average or marginal "grid carbon intensity"..
Let's say IF (e.g.) China decides to build solar panels explicitly to provide the total power needed for its electric cars - AND IT WOULDN'T HAVE BUILT THOSE SOLAR PANELS OTHERWISE - then the electricity to power the cars should be measured by the CO2 intensity of solar panels -
- regardless of what the grid intensity is.

(The solar CO2 intensity is far from zero - esp in China panels, where coal is still used in all stages from polysilicon, aluminium frames, glass and assembly - but it's still MUCH MUCH smaller than coal. No power is 100% clean - yet!)
Read 13 tweets
Jan 31
Is it REALLY possible that EU fossil generation could fall by 20% this year?!

We think so... let me explain this graphic... Image
NUCLEAR: same generation in 2023 as in 2022..

French nuclear will rebound somewhat in 2023 (already many units are back online), and this will be offset by the final German closures in April and the Belgium unit closure today. Image
HYDRO: After the megadrought of 2022, 2023 will rebound by 40TWh in 2023, 80% of the way to the 2001-2021 average.

Already reservoirs are mostly reset. We have no reason to think 2023 rainfall will be below average. Image
Read 8 tweets
Jan 31
2019: EU wind and solar overtake coal
2022: EU wind and solar overtake gas

Yes, we are at THAT stage of the transition already💪
In fact, wind and solar overtook gas AND nuclear last year, to become the EU's biggest combined source of generation in 2022...
If you're worried that coal+gas didn't fall in 2022, don't be.. we forecast the EU will see a megafall of 20%! (211TWh) in fossil generation in 2023.

That's due to French nuclear rebound (offset by German nuclear closures) and hydro rebound, more wind and solar, and less demand
Read 4 tweets
Jan 31
The EU coal bounce is dead.

Let me explain why 🧵
First, why did coal rise earlier in the year?

Simple: there was a 7%(!) deficit in Europe's total generation in 2022 because of a nuclear and hydro shortfall.

Only 1/6 of that gap was made in coal...
Nuclear generation was the lowest since at least 2000.

Over 2/3rd's of the fall in nuclear was from French nuclear outages. A 1/3rd was from Germany's continuing nuclear phase out.
Read 17 tweets
Nov 15, 2022
So here it is.. a 200-page handbook on coal phaseout!

What should we make of it?

First, the headline. Having worked on coal phaseout for almost 10 years, It’s difficult for me to express just how monumental these words are, coming from the @IEA... 🧵
“Net zero pledges cover 95% of coal consumption, so coal phaseout is not a question of “if”, it's a question of "when". Which is just as well, because these net zero dates won’t be enough…
Yes, we need a 2040 global coal power phaseout, according to the IEA's Net Zero.

Just look at that gap in 2030 in emerging countries.. This is the real problem of keeping to 1.5 degrees in one red rectangle…
Read 15 tweets

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