Stephan Jensen Profile picture
Sep 26, 2023 8 tweets 3 min read Read on X
One of the most tragic aspects of the West's disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan is how "well-meaning" Western progressives thought our disengagement would be the solution to all of Afghanistan's problems.

Instead, it handed Afghanistan to the Taliban.

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By peddling narcissistic arguments that all of Afghanistan's problems had to do with Western involvement, the "anti-war" lobby gave credence to the most ethically and strategically irresponsible policy possible:

Legitimizing the Taliban and betraying our allies.

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Now, the very same "anti-war" narcissists are making the very same arguments about Ukraine:

"If only we stop supporting the people defending their country and legitimate the claims of the terrorist aggressors everything will be fine."

It's as mad as it sounds.

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The crazy reality is that the Western "anti-war" folks are the most loyal allies terrorists like the Taliban and tyrants like Putin could ask for.

Whatever our enemies' demands are, their chorus is: "Give in!"

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Because Western "anti-war" progressives are so narcissistic they can't imagine anyone other than the West as the cause of anything, they end up supporting tyrants, authoritarians, and terrorists everywhere world - just because they aren't "us".

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But here's the kicker:

The result of giving in to "anti-war" appeasers is not less war - but more.

Betraying our allies and handing Afghanistan to the Taliban emboldened Putin and made him confident it was the right time to invade Ukraine...

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...just like handing Hiter Czechoslovakia in 1938 emboldened him to invade Poland in 1939. Why would he stop, when no one seemed willing to make him?

The exact same applies to revisionist tyrants today.

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Giving in to tyrants and terrorists only proves to them that violence, force, and threats work.

If we want to prevent more war, we must deter our enemies rather than encourage them.

That takes determination and sacrifice, not wishful thinking.

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More from @StephanAJensen

Feb 7
THREAD:

Western worries about "escalation" is the single biggest obstacle to peace in Ukraine.

From the beginning, fear of "angering" putin is what has enabled russia to keep its full-scale invasion going.

Until we overcome our cowardice, Ukrainians will keep dying.

1/🧵
Western fear of "escalation" has prevented us from:

- Delivering enough military aid, fast enough

- Seizing a $250-300bn of russian frozen assets

- Actively defending the sky above Ukraine

- Effectively blocking russian trade

...all of it enabling putin's war machine.

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In reality, the "red lines" we imposed upon ourselves were figments of our own imagination.

Every time we crossed one, the much worried-about "escalation" never happened.

But the delays and limitations it imposed on the Ukrainians have cost them thousands of lives.

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Read 8 tweets
Feb 5
The current US-Poland diplomatic crisis is a other symptom of a transatlantic sea-change.

President Trump has made catatonic displays of sycophancy a requirement for working in and around his administration.

He is now trying to impose the same requirement on his allies.

1/7🧵
Say what you will about diplomatic finesse:

Merely declining to support Trump's peace prize nomination and soberly explaining why is not an "outrageous insult"

Calling the allied soldiers who died fighting with and for America "nothing" really is an outrageous insult.

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The fact that the US ambassador is now turning this into a diplomatic crisis is instructive.

He knows and everyone knows it's insane. That's the whole point.

They are demanding that people pretend it isn't, as a test of personal loyalty to Trump.

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Read 7 tweets
Jan 27
Dmitriev's "peace" proposal is nothing of the sort - it is a Trojan Horse designed to deliver russia the victory they cannot achieve on the battlefield, and set the stage for renewed russian aggression.

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It is a huge mistake to believe that russia, like us, think peace is a goal in itself.

This is a complete misunderstanding of the russian mindset.

They seek to dominate and expand.

Everything else: peace or war, life or death, is utterly irrelevant to them.

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The russians are struggling on the battlefield.

They are running out of materiel, are starting to experience shortages of ammunition, and are taking huge **and increasing** casualties.

And they still control far less territory in Ukraine than they did in early 2022.

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Read 7 tweets
Sep 27, 2023
🇦🇫 THREAD:

The people arguing for abandoning Afghanistan forget that we tried this thirty years ago...

...with disastrous consequences - both for Afghanistan and the rest of the world.

9/11 was just one of the results of pretending Afghanistan didn't exist in the 1990s.

1/🧵


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2001 was not the first time in modern history that the US + allies got involved militarily in Afghanistan.

Albeit at arm's length, the West and others heavily backed the Mujahideen guerillas fighting the Afghan communist government and their Soviet allies in the 1980s.

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That struggle against the communists in Afghanistan was successful.

The last great proxy conflict of the cold war - it even contributed to the fall of the Soviet Union itself.

But at a tremendous cost - after defeating the communists, Afghanistan was utterly broken.

3/🧵
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Read 17 tweets
Sep 26, 2023
🇦🇫 THREAD:
Afghanistan was not destroyed by post-9/11 war, or even (first and foremost) by civil war in the 1990s.

Afghanistan was destroyed by the Soviet intervention of the 1980s.

More Afghans died *every year* from 1979-89 than in all the 20 years after 2001 *combined.*

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In 1979 Afghanistan's population was about 14 million people. By 1989:

- ca. 1.5 million had died
- ca. 1.5 million had become invalid
- ca. 5 million people had become refugees.

In total, that's 50% of Afghanistan's pre-war population.

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More civilians died in Afghanistan from 1979-89 than in the UK, France, Italy, Belgium, the Netherlands, Norway, Denmark, and Finland *combined* during World War 2.

Those countries had a population of ca. 150 million people in 1940 - more than ten times Afghanistan in 1979.

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Read 4 tweets
Aug 1, 2023
THREAD:

Trump might win in 2024.

That means Europe must start preparing *now* if we want to avoid disaster in Ukraine and war in 🇪🇺

By 2024 we must be able to:

- Continue supplying Ukraine on our own

- Deter Russia from further aggression with or without the US in NATO

1/🧵
We dont know if Trump will win, but he is currently the most likely person to be the Republican nominee.

And Biden is weak electorally. All things considered, I'd give it a 30% chance at this point.

Thats a lot, because the consequences could be extremely distruptive.

2/🧵
What would the return of Trump mean for Europe?

Two huge things:

a) Trump is ultra-sceptical about aid to Ukraine, and loves Putin. He may *want* Putin to win.

b) Trump is ultra-sceptical about NATO. Even if the US stays in the alliance, article 5 will be under question.

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Read 20 tweets

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