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Trent Telenko Profile picture
@TrentTelenko
Sep 28 • 16 tweets • 6 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
This is something a lot of people have forgotten about Ukraine's "Death of a Thousand Cuts" logistical strategy aimed at Russia's ground lines of communications.

Coherent Change Detection software sees patterns of Russian tire tracks by satellite very easily

Domino effect🧵
1/
And Ukraine has had almost year to train similar artificial intelligence tools for its drones -- which Radio Free Europe told us all about in October 2022 -- to better detect RuAF trucks traffic & ammo depots.

2/
This is the link to the Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty article I clipped from in the previous post.

The high AFU kill rates of Russian artillery and trucks is downstream from this AI tech mapping the RuAF truck delivery supply chain.

3/
 rferl.org/a/ukraine-dron…
As Ukraine pushes closer to Tokmak, and GMLRS gets in range of the M-14 road, large portions of Russia's main GLOC comes under the GMLRS attack footprint.

4/
The important point to remember is that M-14 route isn't filled with Kamaz and Ural tactical trucks.

It is filled with semi-tractor trailer rigs that belong to civilian contractors, not the Russian MoD.

See the clip from from @Cyberdefensecom⬇️

5/
The AFU drone & GMLRS destruction of this oligarch owned Russian contractor semi-tractor trailer fleet will have huge knock on effects in maintaining the population of Crimea in addition to the logistical affect on the RuAF.

6/
"Fire control" of the M-14 will be a lot easier than most X OSINT accounts think.

Ukrainian Shark drones spotting for GMLRS on the M-14 road between Mariupol and Melitopol will see dense bumper to bumper Russian semi-tractor trailer traffic like this
7/
And it will get a lot easier when the mud season arrives.

The Russian M-14 GLOC in mud season will be like what the British XXXth Corps faced in Operation Market Garden.

There was only one supply road for which there was no off road mobility
8/ Image
And the kicker for the RuAF is they are supplying one and a half 2023 Russian combined arms armies, not a single WW2 UK armored corps, down a two lane paved road.

Any Semi rig burning with ammo or fuel will block that 2-lane road...

9/
...until cleared by a tracked vehicle with a dozer blade.

A couple of dozen M30A1 GMLRS munitions with 180,000 tungsten steel balls, and Shark drone targeting, will make long stretches of the M-14 look like the 1991 Kuwait City to Basra highway...

10/

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...but with a lot more mud.

Each Russian Semi tractor lost is an irreplaceable capital asset because they are made with sanctioned @ZF_Group heavy truck steering gears.

11/
See this @ZF_Group thread from March 2022 on the extent of their cut off of co-manufacturing and spares support to the Russian heavy truck sector.

12/
I've no doubt that middlemen in Turkey and the 'stans are providing ZF spares at a considerable mark up.

The Russian problem is that this isn't through the @ZF_Group just in time delivery IT support system.

The Russian ability to keep Semi tractors running is compromised.
13/
There is a lot more at stake than RuAF logistics.

AFU GMLRS interdicting between Mariupol and Melitopol will unleash a transportation shortage domino effect.

It will start a cascading systems malfunction of logistical/transportation collapse for the RuAF in Ukraine...

14/ Image
...and potentially the cascade could reaching deeply into the Russian economy.

We have no idea how big this domino effect will get or whether the Russians can act to stop it.

All we know is that 1st domino will soon fall.

15/15 End

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More from @TrentTelenko

Trent Telenko Profile picture
Sep 27
This is a useful thread on the ground lines of communications (GLOC) in Southern Ukraine and what Ukraine getting into GMLRS range of them means for Russia⬇️

1/
The inadequacy of truck routes alone for RuAF logistics in Southern Ukraine can be seen with this ALONA MAZURENKO article titled:

"Russians build rail links to Mariupol, Volnovakha and Donetsk"

2/
 pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/…


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A lot of OSINT accounts on the X-Platform are skeptical of Ukrainian fires being able to logistically starve the RuAF.

I'm not for reasons of RuAF operational attrition.

Trucks with tires like this aren't going to be moving in the Ukrainian mud season
3/
Read 6 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Sep 26
I got a question in the @secretsqrl123 X-Space about this Russian cruise missile attack a few days ago.

I told the questioner that in addition to striking the target, the Russians were mapping Ukrainian air defenses for future attacks

Measurement and signature intelligence🧵
1/
Now look at the route of this later cruise missile attack on Odesa.

That 'big dipper' dogleg into Southern Ukraine you see in the previous post had mapped Ukrainian air defenses, so the cruise missile routing below could happen.

2/
The VKS likely had an IL-20M Coot electronic surveillance plane up over Crimea and Western Black Sea air space during that Sept 17th cruise missile attack mapping Ukrainian air defense radars, particularly the fire control radars...

3/
 en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ilyushin_…
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Read 13 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Sep 24
I'm waiting for someone to claim an F-35 (or 6th generation air dominance fighter) can counter this air superiority threat.🤣

If a F-35 costs $30K an hour to operate, that's about $8.33 a sec.

The drone the did this attack can be paid for by 36 seconds of a F-35 flight hour
1/2
And note, I was low balling the F-35 flight hour cost. See:

"The most recent estimate for the F-35A model’s cost per flying hour was $33,000, in 2012 dollars."

2/
 airandspaceforces.com/lockheed-marti…
The inflation multiplier from 2012 to 2023 is $1 in 2012 is worth $1.34 today. (See link)

So in FY2023 money, an F-35 costs $44,220 an hour to operate. That works out to $12.28 a second.

Thus paying for that FPV drone in 24.4 seconds.

3/3 End
in2013dollars.com/us/inflation/2…
Read 4 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Sep 24
AFU units have entered Novoprokopivka on the Tokmak axis and are pushing hard slightly west of Verbove. 

The AFU has also cut off a lateral road between Novoprokopivka and Verbove the RuAF have been using as means of shuttling units between the two village weak points.

1/6
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There are 28 RuAF inf. brigade flags around the Novoprokopivka - Verbove salient at 20%-to-40% strength with the boundary of two Russian combined arms armies smack between those villages.

And one, the 58th CAA HQ, just losing its command post, commander and executive officer
2/6 Image
The Reporting From Ukraine YouTube channel has a good run down on the events of this tactical breakthrough.

Odds are the RuAF have built their trenches to stop an enemy in front of, but not rolling along, their trenchline.

3/6
Read 7 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Sep 23
The arrival of the APAM cluster munitions equipped ATACMS Block 1 and 1A will cause the push back of VKS Buk, S-300 and S-400 surface to air missile batteries out of Southern Ukraine and all of Donbas.

Destruction of Russian air defense🧵
1/
This Cold War era video will explain the effects of the APAM variants on Russian SAM battery type targets.

2/
This will require a software upgrade to existing wheeled HIMARS and the tracked M270 launchers in Ukrainian service.

3/
 thedrive.com/the-war-zone/u…
Read 18 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Sep 22
I've had multiple threads on the DC De-escalation faction running going back over a year.

Now UK Foreign Secretary James Cleverly comes out and confirms what I've been laying out about those Biden bureaucratic mandarins running Ukraine policy.

1/
 pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/…

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This is one of my latest X threads detailing the Players, their "Escalation Management" ideology and motivations over time that Cleverly didn't get into for reasons of diplomacy.

2/
The damage these delusional elites are doing to national security via the accelerated Ukrainian development of deep strike drones they've forced by slow walking ATACMS & F-16, as well as the damage they are doing to US European NATO nation security relations is huge.

3/3
Read 4 tweets

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