Thread by @UncleJo46902375

@Johnincarlisle

I’m going to keep this polite and I’m not a troll, so I’m hoping any response will be the same.

This is a page from Nobody’s substack.

I’ll explain why it’s flawed later but for now just note the number of unvaccinated deaths 3,859.
1/

https://twitter.com/Johnincarlisle/status/1706734256272122305

The 3,859 figure comes from Table 2 of the ONS study which covers the ONS linked group only. This is NOT the total number of all cause deaths among the unvaccinated in England.

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The very next column is the person-years exposure built up by the ONS from individual records thus allowing for people moving between vaccination status groups, having critical birthdays and dying.

It's a 12 month period, so Person-years = average number of persons in cohort
3/

Instead of using this rigorously-derived value, the Nobody has had a wet finger guess based on a different data set not limited to the ONS linked group (unlike his the death numbers). He's falsely doubled the number of unvaccinated and halved the CMR.

4/

Here’s a corrected version using consistent data with both deaths and populations from the ONS linked group, unlike the nobody's mix and match.

Note vaccinated deaths and population derived from Table 2 in the same way.

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Note because we are considering the ONS linked group only, there’s no need to guess at the unvaccinated population. For the linked group, this is known from the ONS analysis with a high degree of precision.

Apparent efficacy against all cause deaths +26%

6/

So here’s what the chart for this age group should and shouldn’t look like.

38,646 lives in this cohort apparently saved by the vaccine except that the ONS warned us not to attempt to derive efficacy from this study due to possible confounders.

7/

Possible confounders

1. The healthy vaccine effect.
2. Deprivation. Uptake is lower in deprived areas where health outcomes are generally worse.

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3. Ignorance. IMO, the unvaccinated are more likely to ignore other health advice, perhaps drink heavily, smoke or have a poor diet (noting that people in deprived areas may not be able to afford a healthy diet).

9/

This flaw runs all the way through Nobody's analysis and means that none of the results can be taken seriously.

Ends