Colorectal cancer in young adults has been in the news and of course the usual suspects have been spreading disinformation.

The mortality rate for those aged 40-44 has doubled in the last 6 years.

But 2020 was already 60% higher than the dotted trend line.
1/ Points of inflection
40-44 ~2017
35-39 ~2012
30-34 ~2007
25-29 ~2002ish
Notice anything?
2/

Bonkers. CLT has no absolutely no relevance to this analysis.

1/8

@MauritzPreller @mongol_fi

https://twitter.com/sco0psmcgoo/status/1756446668499616176

What Scoops appears to be attempting to do is derive the deaths that would have occurred in the PPD population if they’d had an average age of 40 because that's about the average age of the New Zealand population.

2/8

Disinformation from the guys who stole the New Zealand vaccination data.

Here’s some right tosh from Kirsch about dose 1.

But..

1/15 Here’s my version, same data, similar processing, same deaths but with added context.

Predicted deaths based week-by-week on the ages of everyone alive in the cohort and 2015-19 mortality rates.

2/15

Oh dear @stkirsch you really should have age stratified or age standardised before opening your big mouth and putting you foot in.

↙️ Kirsch’s all-age mash-up

↘️ Same data but age-standardised

1/5

The proportion of old people in the early weeks is much higher since they are getting boosted ~week 26 and circling back to week 0, that’s why there are 4.2 million in week 0 declining to 140 thousand by week 10.

That’s going to really screw up crude mortality rates.

2/5

@Johnincarlisle

I’m going to keep this polite and I’m not a troll, so I’m hoping any response will be the same.

This is a page from Nobody’s substack.

I’ll explain why it’s flawed later but for now just note the number of unvaccinated deaths 3,859.
1/

https://twitter.com/Johnincarlisle/status/1706734256272122305

The 3,859 figure comes from Table 2 of the ONS study which covers the ONS linked group only. This is NOT the total number of all cause deaths among the unvaccinated in England.

2/

So let’s decompose the latest @Johnincarlisle video to see how he cherry-picks the data for clicks.

He refers to 2 data sources

The ONS weekly mortality reports

The OHID Excess mortality in England analysis

https://twitter.com/Johnincarlisle/status/1656992078855847937

1/ Now the ONS calculates excess deaths relative to the average of 5 prior years without allowance for bank holidays or demographic changes.

While the OHID attempts a more sophisticated approach.

Q. Which does @Johnincarlisle chose?

A. Whichever suits his narrative best.

2/

Christmas 1/4

Looking at older age bands, there appears to have been a steep increase in new cases over Christmas.

The last 2 days shown below may increase as further samples are processed. Christmas 2/4

Effects all the older age bands and every region

These bar charts provide a before and after Christmas comparison

1/6. Are you aware that the rates of new cases among older people in some areas are emerging from the #ImmensaScandal significantly higher than they were before?

And that they still seems to be rising in some places. 2/6. Among those aged 65 to 84, the trend still appears to be upwards in Tewksbury, Stroud and Gloucester. Rates seem to be settling in other areas after a re-test bounce but at values about 2 to 3 times higher than before the #ImmensaScandal.