There have been many experimental papers on BA.2.86 over last month. This one by David Ho's group is one of most comprehensive:
I'm going to quickly summarize key points for people having hard time keeping up w all the recent BA.2.86 papers.biorxiv.org/content/10.110…
1⃣ Serum neutralization of BA.2.86 roughly comparable to XBB.1.5, & comparable or slightly better than newer XBB variants like EG.5.1
Similar results (within few-fold) reported by other groups too, eg @yunlong_cao @BenjMurrell @BarouchLab @sigallab @ShanLuLiu1 @SystemsVirology
2⃣ But BA.2.86 escapes somewhat different antibodies than XBB variants: BA.2.86 has more escape from SD1 & RBD class 2/3 Abs, but less escape from RBD class 1/4 Abs
So maybe BA.2.86 & XBB have slightly different immunological "niches"
3⃣ BA.2.86 actually has better ACE2 affinity than BA.2 and XBB.1.5. Possibly this could impact transmissibility, and certainly it could impact tolerance for future antibody escape mutations.
This result has also been reported by @yunlong_cao:
It will be a few weeks before we finish & post pre-print for study, but we wanted to share data now for those interested in interpreting current SARS2 evolution.
Full analysis of the mutations is in these slides:
Analysis is based mostly on deep mutational scanning experiments
TLDR: lots of antigenic change, and some interesting RBD mutations (addition of N-linked glycan & deletion in receptor-binding motif)slides.com/jbloom/new_2nd…
First, to emphasize, only THREE sequences of variant identified so far. There is not currently evidence of wide transmission.
As this thread outlines, people who study SARS2 evolution may want to pay attention to features of this variant. Everyone else can ignore if they wish.
As background, common question in evolution is if some mutations have different effects in different homologs or conditions
Eg, our lab has measured how most mutations to Delta, BA.1 & BA.2 spike affect viral entry. Which mutations have different effects in these viral variants?
If deep mutational scanning experiments were perfect, we’d just compare the measured effects of each mutation in the different spikes to see if they were non-identical.
But in practice, experiments have noise: so how do we tell true biological differences from noise?
Briefly, the study (which was led by Wan Ni Chia @CheeWahTan2 @LokShee @linfa_wang), isolated antibodies from person who had been infected by SARS-CoV-1 in ~2003, then received Pfizer SARS-CoV-2 vaccine in 2021.
So unlike most people in the world, whose first immunological exposure to a SARS-related CoV was to an early SARS-CoV-2 strain via either infection or vaccination in 2020 or 2021, this person’s immune system had been “imprinted” by SARS-CoV-1 prior to their COVID vaccine.
A few brief thoughts on antigenic impact of F456L mutation that is becoming more common in #SARSCoV2 XBB strains.
@yunlong_cao et al *already* measured impact of this mutation on human serum antibody neutralization in their recent preprint, and it causes ~1.5-fold titer drop.
Specifically, see Extended Data Fig 6 of
Spike of XBB.1.5.10 is XBB.1.5 + F456L, so compare those strains to see effect of F456L.
Across three cohorts, F456L causes titer drops of: