Deep Russian influence OPs in Germany.🧵
Since cold war started cultural exchange with the West has been curated by Russian intelligence. What seems as innocent activity is actually an attack vector on western society itself.
Here is a great example:
School exchanges 2022/2023 1/
Why perform such an exchange while Russia wages a war and abducts children of another country?
On several occasions in this report the political purpose becomes clear. On top of joint work in the forest the participants learned "a totally new view on World affairs". 2/
Of note is, that the participants learned that the war on Ukraine is not about the involved people but the wider geopolitical situation.
The trip happened February 10-25th 2023, over the Russian war celebrations. It comes as no surprise, that one stop was indeed the Kremlin.
3/
The German schools involved noted, that unlike previous official exchanges, this time it was a private initiative - the timing yet, during active school service, raises questions about official endorsement. After all, it's not easy to travel as group to Russia these days.
4/
After the cold war ended we had happy years with free & open cultural exchange with Russia. These days are over. Since over a decade Russia is weaponizing cultural affairs again. From "understanding the Russian Soul" to financing "culture war" in the west.
Russia is our enemy.
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Russia is a colonial, imperial power. 🧵
Karaganov et al describe vividly how internal colonization works, and how they plan to implement it.
They also tells us why appeasement has no perspective. Russia's war on Ukraine is born from and part of a wider campaign for conquest. 1/
Like many empires who approach their terminal stage, Russia faces severe issues. Demography, emancipation of colonies, imbalanced economy, bloated military & lack of social coherence.
Russia approaches these issues not by internal reforms but by applying the imperial playbook.
2/
What Karaganov demands is in itself not new - we see it already enacted in various Russian wars, foreign & domestic policy.
Karaganov calls for a more radical implementation of imperial policy without much regard for internal and external consequences.
3/
Important piece by Garry Kasparov!🧵
What he explains meshes in with the track 1.5 negotiations that supposedly happened behind the Biden admin back.
The suspicion is there's an "old gang" on track to make the same mistakes again - worse.
HELP @AtlanticCouncil @chathamhouse 1/
For further reading may I offer the piece below.
Also please check out the work of @KeirGiles , @JohnSipher , @apiontkovsky and @IlvesToomas - who have been raising the alarm bells since years.
So why do we see this anankastic "deescalation" mantra? 2/
Hypothesis:
The maladaptive focus to de-escalate in face of every Russian sub-critical escalatory step might stem from a desire to stabilize Putin. Arguably Putin's gang had issues with rising politicisation in military + interest groups. The power vertical was out of balance.
3/
Polycrisis & Insanity🧵
"The definition of insanity is repeating the same actions over and over again and expecting different results."
The MT article describes negotiations which not only repeat past mistakes but repeat them in the worst fashion. 1/ themoscowtimes.com/2023/07/26/for…
The backdrop for this article is a situation in which Russia appears to develop a polycrisis de luxe to weasel out of the mess in Ukraine.
And because no crisis worth it's name is complete without Africa & the migration threat - enter Niger, Wagner, Prigozhin & Viktor Bout! 2/
While russia is loosing ground in Ukraine it makes gains in Africa. Not Africa alone, RF is active with a footprint in the whole MENA area as destabilizing power, serial supporter of coups, brutal autocrats & terrorist movements.
What a way to expand the idea of "Russkiy Mir".
3/
❗️Important explanation from @Sasha_Etkind ❗️
"Russia" is a colonial & imperialistic entity, the "Russian Federation" is a colonial construct.
The term "Russia" is a semantic trap that limits our understanding of the Ukraine war.
🧵 1/
1. What is "Russia"?
We tend to use simple concept when referring to a state actor. "USA", "France" or "Denmark" work well in this context and seldomly limit our political understanding.
Russia is different because what counts as "Russia" is much more context dependent. 2/
From "Russia" over RF, "Novorossija" and "Russkiy mir" to the expansive concept that "Russia is where Russians are" - even in internal use the terminology is floating. Someone might start talking about "Russkij mir" and continue with the term "Russia".
"Russia" is a wild card. 3/
The arrest of #Girkin is quite pivotal. 🧵
Just a few weeks ago the authorities "protected" him from a potential bomb threat. Now, within a few hours he and his allies Kvatchkov and Gubarev are taken on by the "authorities".
So, why now & for what reason?
Is this a foreshadow? 1/
One could say that arresting Girkin after his insults to putin and the leadership is what we expect from a strong leader in power. But then, Girkin's criticism and blatant insults are not new.
Girkin is well connected. He speaks out what many "old guard" apparatchiks think.
2/
Putin was far from the all powerful leader some in the west perceived him to be. His power stemmed from a system of personal loyalties, feudal/mafia style leadership and being the ultimate arbiter of the various factions in the RF "elite".
Putins method was less suppression
3/
(or: Why the evil West can't allow to freeze the war)
A case study of failure dedicated to V.V. #Putin, Yevgeny #Prigozhin and Leonid Ivashov.
Thread 🧵🔽
/1
Here we autocrats face a conundrum:
On one hand we need a strong apparatus to benevolently suppress our people - but someone in these structures might accumulate enough power to threaten our rule.
Alas, our own henchmen, which we groomed, might form a coalition to topple us.
/3
Our troubled colleague "Vova" Putin used a well tested bouquet of tricks to keep his apparatus, the siloviki, in check:
- feudal structure handing out fiefdoms
- play autocratic chairs, few secure in their position
- being vague, people second guess all actions
- mafia style
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