Thomas C. Theiner Profile picture
Oct 1, 2023 14 tweets 5 min read Read on X
I am in Warsaw and was quite busy the last two weeks with the preparation for and then networking at the Heart of Europe International TV Festival... so I only found the time to work through two #Pentagon Ukraine Realignment papers.

So many new weapons for 🇺🇦 Ukraine 😃😃
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So let's begin with the coolest stuff - there is a classified Army emergency missile procurement for $187.4m... which it seems isn't GMLRS, as that is under another classified section: $71.3m of GMLRS are being acquired. So: if it isn't GMLRS... what could it be 😉
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Let's stay with missiles: $389.9m for Javelins - $148.5m for Javelins for Ukraine, and the rest to replace USMC TOW 2A/2B missiles delivered with the Bradleys.

Speaking of Bradleys: $681.6m for new M2A4 Bradleys, to free up additional M2A2 ODS and M113 for Ukraine, and also
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$61.9m Bradley ERA tiles to improve the armor of Ukraine's Bradleys and $9.8m spare parts. Also $215.7m for 25 × 137mm ammo for the Bradley's gun. This order doubles US 25mm ammo production for 2023.

Let's stay with ammo, as there is one amazing round on the way to Ukraine:
4/n
Ammo:

• $146.3m small arms ammo (5.56mm, 7.62mm, 0.50)
• $28.5m 40mm M433 high-explosive dual-purpose grenades
• $29.2m M67 fragmentation, M18 colored smoke & M106 obscurant grenades
• $12.9m for a variety of USMC grenades
• $12.7m M112 and other demolition munitions,
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incl. 40 pound cratering demolition charges.

But the most amazing ammo on the way to Ukraine are a whoping $134.5m in M1147 rounds for Abrams tanks!

The M1147 is the US Army's most modern (!) round and specifically designed to ruthlessly butcher enemy infantry in trenches!
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Ukraine is also receiving M4A1 carbines, M240B machine guns, M2HB machine guns, M2A1 machine guns, 40mm Mk19 machine gun grenade launchers and M249 machine guns for $30.2m.

And $35.1m in night vision viewers and weapon night sights, as well as $16.5m thermal sights.
7/n
Before I come to a huge air defense surprise, a look at artillery ammo:

• $72.2m charges, fuzes, primers
• $357.4m M795 155mm rounds
• $59.5m M982A1 Excalibur rounds
• $19.2m 60mm, 81mm, 120mm mortar rounds
• $13.4m for M326A1 to replace M25A1 mortars sent to Ukraine
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This is a Patriot battery's AN/MPQ-65 radar. It covers +/- 120 degrees; which is ok if you have a Patriot belt to protect your forces.
But Ukraine needs to cover 360 degrees around its cities and - surprise- the US delivered a whole bunch of extra AN/MPQ-65 radars to Ukraine,
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tripling the number of radars per battery! Now the Army is spending $130.4m to buy AN/MPQ-65A radars as replacement.

This explains why all russians attacks on Kyiv failed. Also the US sent Ukraine an extra $53m in AN/MPQ-64F1 Sentinel air defense radars for the NASAMS 2.
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The Pentagon also buys:

• $41.3 M88A2 Hercules ARVs
• $9.9m Special Operations Riverine Craft and $12.2 Light Tactical All-Terrain Vehicles (L-ATV), which were sent to Ukraine's Special Forces
• $10m M1132 Stryker mine rollers
• $16.7m M978A4 HEMTT fuel tankers
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• $0.5m M261 Hydra rocket pods
• $14.2m Hydra rockets
• $34.3m Mk 153 Shoulder-Launched Multipurpose Assault Weapon
• $14.8m AT-4 launchers and ammo
• $14.1m Mk 13 sniper rifles
• $104.9m JLTVs are being acquired to replace the armored Humvees sent to Ukraine
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And last but not least one more classified section: the US Navy has provided Ukraine with $80m worth of RIM-7 Sea Sparrow missiles for Ukraine's Buk air-defense missile launchers.

The legendary FrankenSAM is alive!!

I have seen it and it works :-)

In the next days I will
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try to find the time to work through the other three Pentagon Realignment files, with the weapons the Pentagon acquired in September.

So: stay tuned and Slava Ukraini!

14/end

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More from @noclador

Sep 4
2 days ago I did a thread about the reasons russia can't defeat Ukraine and yet is still a deadly threat to Europe and NATO (link to the thread the next tweet).

Today I will talk about three of the fronts of a russia-Europe war:
1) Black Sea
2) Baltic Sea
3) North Atlantic

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These three fronts will be air and sea battles, while Finland and the Baltics will be air and land battles; about which I will talk in another thread in the coming days.

I do not believe the US under control of Trump or Vance would come to the aid
2/n
of Europe... we will be on our own, which will have very dire consequences for the battle in the North Atlantic and thus the UK.

First, let's look at the Black Sea, where russia's Black Sea Fleet has already been savaged by the Ukrainians (pic: the sinking cruiser Moskva).
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Read 36 tweets
Sep 1
• russia has no chance to defeat Ukraine
• russia is a deadly threat to NATO and the EU

Both of these are true... because as of 2025 Ukraine fields a far more capable military than NATO's 30 European members combined (!).

Let me explain.
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As of August 2025 russia fields more than 1,3 million troops; at least half of which are fighting in or against Ukraine.

Ukraine has an estimated 1 million troops... maybe even 1,1 million troops. NATO's European members have double that: some 2.2 million troops, but
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(there is always a "but" with European militaries):

• with more than double the personnel European NATO members manage to field only 20% more combat brigades than Ukraine. Partly because Western navies and air forces are bigger, but mostly because in all European militaries
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Read 39 tweets
Aug 18
People forget that for most if its history Europe was much, much more militarized than even during the Cold War.

Italy, from the end of the Third War of Independence in 1866 to 1939 fielded always 360-400 battalions, which fell to 110-115 during the Cold War, as the US
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backed its European allies with the its massive air force. Today Italy fields 41 battalions (infantry, tanks, recon, special forces, rangers).

Likewise the British Army fielded for most of its history (especially after the 1908 Haldane reforms) 450-480 battalions, which came
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in three types: 150-160 regular battalions (of which a third was always in India), around 100 reserve battalions to provide replacements for the regular battalions, and 200-220 territorial battalions, which (at least on paper) could not be deployed overseas. The British Army
3/n
Read 14 tweets
Jul 4
This is Berlin.

And this is how Berlin would look like 3 days after putin attacks Europe... because Germany doesn't have the air defence ammo to defend any of its city for more than 2 days.
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This is Copenhagen.

And this is how Copenhagen would look like the morning after putin attacks Europe... because Denmark doesn't have any air defence to defend itself.
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This is Paris.

And this is how Paris would look like a day after putin attacks Europe... because France only has SAMP/T air defence systems, which is as of now has very limited capabilities against ballistic missiles.
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Read 12 tweets
Jul 3
Are the American M142 HIMARS and the M270A2 MLRS the best rocket/missile launchers... yes, they are.

Should Europe buy them? No.

Not as long as @LockheedMartin doesn't have a production line IN EUROPE for GMLRS, GMLRS-ER, ATACMS and PrSM missiles... but as long as Europe
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is ordering only itsy-bitsy amounts of missiles, there is no incentive for Lockheed Martin to produce missiles in Europe... which means at any given moment MAGA can deny Europe the needed missiles to defend itself against a russian attack.
So... Europe can either order 10,000
2/n
missiles per year,... or have a look at the second best rocket/missile launcher: Israel's PULS.

Should Europe buy it? No.

Because the missile production line in Israel is too small to support Europe's missile needs... again, Europe would have to either commit to buy 10,000
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Read 9 tweets
Jun 1
Let's run some numbers on Ukraine's brilliant operation to take out russia's strategic aviation deep in russia and Siberia.

8× containers are visible in this image

As Ukraine sent 2× containers to each of the 5× air bases they attacked, another 2× must be out of sight.
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Each container roof seems to have housed 9 compartments. Here we can see that at 3× per compartments, but they might have even had space for 4× drones.
Quick math: that's 27× or 36× drones.
Two containers per air base: 54× or 72× drones

But (!) not all compartments likely
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held drones.

As we saw in this video from on of the containers launching drones, the roof of the containers slid to the side and fell down... so one compartment might have housed the motor and system to slide the roof off.

Also all the containers self-destructed once they
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Read 6 tweets

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